??? 微軟公司（Microsoft）的訃告已經(jīng)被寫(xiě)過(guò)多次了。在這個(gè)由蘋(píng)果公司（Apple）設(shè)計(jì)并主宰的科技世界里，就是沒(méi)有這家軟件巨頭的一席之地。首席執(zhí)行官斯蒂夫?鮑爾默無(wú)法引領(lǐng)微軟走向成長(zhǎng)，只能讓它后PC世界里繼續(xù)賣(mài)PC軟件。微軟經(jīng)常被貶為跟不上潮流，以至于投資者已基本上不再信任其股票了。過(guò)去十年的大部分時(shí)間里，它的股價(jià)一直在每股25美元到30美元之間窄幅波動(dòng)。本周一，微軟股價(jià)收停于27美元左右，2008年，2006年，2004年和2001年，每年的這個(gè)時(shí)候它都是這個(gè)價(jià)……這是什么疑似？你懂的。

????但是，過(guò)去五天里，微軟向開(kāi)發(fā)者展示了其最新操作系統(tǒng)Windows 8之后，其股價(jià)卻上漲了5%。這個(gè)系統(tǒng)是旨在開(kāi)創(chuàng)Windows的的新紀(jì)元，它試圖在移動(dòng)設(shè)備、平板電腦和傳統(tǒng)PC之間建立聯(lián)系的紐帶。股價(jià)的這一小幅上漲是一個(gè)信號(hào)，表明長(zhǎng)期看低微軟股票的投資者正在做出對(duì)自己不利的舉動(dòng)。

????Windows 8在初期測(cè)評(píng)中受到了也許是該系列操作系統(tǒng)有史以來(lái)最熱烈的好評(píng)，同時(shí)也帶來(lái)了這樣一種可能性，即微軟可能會(huì)重新融入這個(gè)所謂的后PC世界。前蘋(píng)果公司高管珍-露易絲?蓋瑟撰文稱，Windows 8新增的觸摸式Metro用戶界面“是微軟在‘Windows無(wú)處不在’這一路線上邁出的新步伐，它使所有微軟系統(tǒng)驅(qū)動(dòng)的設(shè)備都用上了簡(jiǎn)潔、優(yōu)雅的用戶界面，不管是PC，智能手機(jī)，還是平板電腦。”科技博客TechCrunch稱其為“確實(shí)相當(dāng)出彩，相當(dāng)富有洞察力”。甚至頗富影響力的蘋(píng)果博主約翰?格魯伯也承認(rèn)“作為iPad的對(duì)手，它肯定完敗，但仍然不失為一款成功的操作系統(tǒng)”。

????好吧，這些評(píng)論多數(shù)可能是明褒暗貶，但是考慮一下這個(gè)事實(shí)：蘋(píng)果公司發(fā)布iPad后短短一年半的時(shí)間里，微軟就從零開(kāi)始打造了一套足以與蘋(píng)果的iOS操作系統(tǒng)相提并論的操作系統(tǒng)。1996年，斯蒂夫?喬布斯在接受《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）專欄作家菲利普?埃爾默-德威特采訪時(shí)曾夸下海口，稱蘋(píng)果早在20世紀(jì)80年代就已經(jīng)開(kāi)發(fā)出來(lái)的操作系，統(tǒng)微軟要花上10年才能迎頭趕上。

????微軟永遠(yuǎn)也沒(méi)法成為今日蘋(píng)果那樣的創(chuàng)新引擎。但它仍能在其鼎盛時(shí)期所擅長(zhǎng)的事情上再次勝出：模仿創(chuàng)新者并將其大規(guī)模銷(xiāo)售給龐大的用戶群。這也正是微軟攜Windows Phone 7極力爭(zhēng)取的局面。除了一套創(chuàng)新的用戶界面，這套手機(jī)操作系統(tǒng)并未取得太多突破。但是，一旦加上諾基亞的全球用戶，突然間，部分分析師就開(kāi)始預(yù)測(cè)，到2015年Windows Phone 7的市場(chǎng)份額將達(dá)到21%，超過(guò)蘋(píng)果公司15%的份額。

????Windows 8 也不太可能抬高任何創(chuàng)新門(mén)檻，但在加速駛向云計(jì)算的技術(shù)世界里，它能讓微軟參與到平板電腦和上網(wǎng)本的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中去。眾多緊跟微軟的證券分析師都對(duì)此印象深刻，其中少數(shù)人還預(yù)測(cè)微軟股價(jià)將漲至34美元或35美元。換言之，Windows 8和Windows Phone 7能將微軟股價(jià)推高30%。

????然而，投資者們并未如此陶醉。微軟開(kāi)發(fā)者大會(huì)正好與其年度分析師和投資者大會(huì)同時(shí)召開(kāi)。與會(huì)的投資者最有興趣的似乎只是如何使微軟從530億美元的現(xiàn)金拿出更多的錢(qián)來(lái)支付紅利。通常，投資者會(huì)對(duì)預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)有限的公司提出這樣的要求。微軟的營(yíng)業(yè)收入年增長(zhǎng)率約為6%，而蘋(píng)果則高達(dá)50%。因此，人們?cè)俅位氐嚼弦惶椎恼f(shuō)法：微軟不是蘋(píng)果，所以它必須支付紅利。

????短期內(nèi)，更豐厚的紅利可能是唯一能讓投資者高興的事情，但一直面臨下課呼聲的鮑爾默終于做了件像樣的工作，為微軟的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)增長(zhǎng)奠定了基礎(chǔ)，而且這一增長(zhǎng)有可能會(huì)重回兩位數(shù)的高位。

????Windows 8在有能力開(kāi)始為微軟創(chuàng)收之前還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。微軟本財(cái)年將于2012年6月結(jié)束，在此之前，它不太可能上市。如果微軟不能推出奇招，或者用戶對(duì)新界面并不滿意，這款操作系統(tǒng)的銷(xiāo)售業(yè)績(jī)可能會(huì)令人失望。但Windows 8正像它此前的Windows Phone 7一樣，為微軟提供了該公司一段時(shí)間以來(lái)所缺乏的東西，也就是一款能讓公司長(zhǎng)期緊跟潮流的核心產(chǎn)品。如果微軟能成功地讓它一炮打響，某一天投資也許會(huì)后悔沒(méi)抓住眼下的機(jī)會(huì)，在其股價(jià)處于低位時(shí)建倉(cāng)。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????Microsoft's obituary has been written plenty of times. There was no place for the software mammoth in a tech world designed -- and dominated -- by Apple. CEO Steve Ballmer was unable to steer the company to a position of growth, leaving Microsoft selling PC software in a post-PC world. So often has Microsoft been written off as irrelevant that investors have largely stopped believing in the stock, which has spent the bulk of the past ten years in a tight range between $25 a share and $30 a share. On Monday, the stock closed around $27, which is where it traded around this time of the year in 2008, in 2006, in 2004, in 2001 … you get the idea.

????In the past five days, however, Microsoft's (MSFT) shares have risen by 5%, following the presentation of its latest operating software, Windows 8, to developers. Designed as a fresh start for Windows, it attempts to bridge mobile devices, tablets and traditional PCs. That modest uptick is a sign that investors that have so long written off Redmond's stock may be doing so at their own peril.

????In early reviews, Windows 8 received perhaps the strongest praise ever for a version of its operating system and opened up the possibility that Microsoft could in fact become relevant in the so-called post-PC world. Jean-Louis Gassée, a former Apple (AAPL) executive, wrote that the touch-based Metro user interface added to Windows 8 "is a step along the 'Windows Everywhere' road that leads to a single, elegant UI for all Microsoft-powered devices, whether they're PCs, smartphones, or tablets." TechCrunch called it "actually quite cool and quite intuitive." Even John Gruber, an influential Apple blogger, conceded "it could utterly fail as an iPad competitor, but still be a successful OS."

????Okay, much of that may be damning with faint praise, but consider that, only a year and a half after Apple released the iPad, Microsoft has built from scratch an operating system that is winning comparisons to iOS. As Steve Jobs pointed out in a 1996 interview unearthed by Philip Elmer-DeWitt, it took Microsoft 10 years to catch up to the operating system that Apple created in the 1980s.

????Microsoft will never become the driving force of innovation that Apple is today. But it can excel again at the thing it was good at in its glory days: copying the innovators and selling it at large-scale to a vast customer base. That is what Microsoft has been pushing for with Windows Phone 7. Aside from an innovative user interface of its own, the mobile OS doesn't break a lot of new ground. But throw in access to Nokia's global customers and, suddenly, some analysts see Windows Phone 7 taking a 21% market share in 2015, surpassing Apple's 15% share.

????Windows 8 isn't likely to raise any innovative bars either, but it could keep Microsoft in the race as tablets vie with netbooks in a tech world moving further into the cloud. Most securities analysts following Microsoft were impressed, with a few predicting Microsoft will rise as high as $34 or $35 a share. In other words, Windows 8 and Windows Phone 7 could push Microsoft 30% higher.

????Investors weren't so enthralled. Microsoft staged its developers conference to coincide with an annual meeting with analysts and investors. There, investors seemed most interested in getting a bigger piece of Microsoft's $53 billion worth of cash to be paid into dividends. Such demands are usually made to companies expected to see little, if any growth. Microsoft's revenue is growing around 6% a year compared with a 50% growth rate for Apple. It's the same old story: Microsoft isn't Apple, so it must pay a dividend.

????In the near term, a fatter dividend may be the only thing to make investors happy, but Ballmer -- who keeps facing calls for his replacement as CEO -- is finally starting to do a decent job of laying the foundation for Microsoft's long-term growth -- growth that could return to the double-digits.

????Windows 8 has a long way to go before it can start adding to Microsoft's revenue. It's unlikely to launch before the end of Microsoft's fiscal year, which ends in June 2012. Sales could disappoint if Microsoft fails to work out any potential kinks or if users are uncomfortable with the new interface. But Windows 8, like Windows Phone 7 before it, offers Microsoft something the company hasn't had in a while: a core product that could keep the company relevant for years. If Microsoft succeeds in making that happen, investors may one day regret this chance to have gotten its shares for cheap.