????意大利政府債務負擔極為沉重，相當于其國內生產總值的120%，許多人認為，在這樣一個國家推行緊縮政策是件好事。可是，緊縮政策分很多種。在意大利的一攬子緊縮計劃中，該國政府并未觸及棘手的經濟結構改革，只是簡單地提高了稅收并削減政府工作崗位。

????事實上，根據瑞銀集團（UBS）的分析，550億美元的緊縮計劃中約三分之二都來自稅率提高。此舉將會嚴重壓抑經濟增長，其負面作用比降低政府開支更突出。此外，已批準的減支方案將使數以千計的政府雇員失業，失業率恐將繼續攀升，進一步拖累經濟增長。

????僅僅靠削減支出和提高稅，就想使一個國家走出經濟困境，幾乎是不可能實現的目標，走出困境的動力必須是經濟增長，而對意大利和其他歐元區邊緣國家來說，增長看起來越發遙不可及。難道還需要新的例子來證明這一點嗎？看看過去18個月來希臘發生了什么事吧：歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織推行嚴厲的緊縮措施，迫使該國政府裁掉數以千計的政府雇員，并提高稅收，給國民經濟造成了災難性后果。2010年希臘國內生產總值萎縮了6%，今年第二季度又萎縮了7.3%——形勢之惡劣遠超任何人的想象。

????歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織正就給希臘的新一輪援助進行辯論，為了獲得這筆款項，希臘必須裁掉更多政府雇員，并推出一項特別財產稅，嘗試達成上述機構設定的財政目標。這將進一步降低希臘的經濟增長率，使其政府收入無法達到目標，被迫尋求新的援助。這種惡性循環非常可怕，正因為此，市場走勢表明投資者認為希臘幾乎肯定會在近期發生債務違約。

????盡管意大利的情況還不像希臘那么糟，它很可能重蹈其地中海鄰國的覆轍。要避免這一后果，意大利必須進行真正的結構性經濟改革。意大利可以從勞動法的改革著手，該國現行法律使招聘和解雇員工都非常困難。

????意大利還可以降低政府在本國最大的幾家公司中的持股比例，以此吸引外國直接投資，從而促進增長。該國還應當明智地遠離制造業，將服務業作為國民經濟的支柱——美國三十年前痛苦地實現了這一結構性變革。為此，意大利必須在科技和其他二十一世紀經濟增長引擎上增加投入。

????標普向意大利發出的信號很明確：增長速度是關乎經濟生死存亡的關鍵。對于其他國家來說，無論是否屬于歐元區，若不想在不久的將來遭到降級厄運，領會這一信號無疑也是明智之舉。

????譯者：小宇

????One would think that austerity would be a good thing for a nation with a crushing debt load that's 120% of its GDP like it is in Italy. But not all austerity is the same. Instead of making tough structural changes to the Italian economy in its austerity package, the Italian state decided to simply raise taxes and cut jobs.

????In fact, around two-thirds of the 55 billion euro austerity plan will come from higher taxes, according to UBS. That will have a more depressive effect on growth than lower expenditures. Furthermore, the cuts in spending that were approved could cost thousands of workers their jobs, further slowing growth as unemployment grows.

????It is almost impossible for a country to work itself out of an economic hole by slashing spending and raising taxes alone. It needs to grow its way out of the hole, something that looks increasingly difficult for Italy and other members of the eurozone periphery. To see an example of this, one needs to just look at what has occurred in Greece over the last 18 months. Harsh austerity measures pushed on the country by the ECB and IMF forced the country to lay off thousands of workers and raise taxes. This has had a devastating effect on the Greek economy. Its GDP shrank 6% in 2010 and 7.3% in the second quarter of this year -- far worse than anyone imagined.

????To get its next round of bailout money, which is currently being debated, the country has had to slash even more jobs and institute a special tax on property to try and meet fiscal targets from the ECB and IMF. This will further lower growth rates in the country, causing it to miss revenue targets and potentially force it to seek further bailouts. This downward spiral is why the market is pricing in an almost certain Greek default sometime in the near future.

????While Italy isn't as bad as Greece, it could very well fall into the same trap that has ensnared its Mediterranean neighbor. To avoid this outcome, Italy needs to make real structural changes to its economy, starting with reformation of its labor laws, which makes it very difficult to hire and fire workers.

????The country could also boost growth by reducing public ownership in some of its largest corporations to encourage foreign direct investment. Italy would also be wise to steer its economy away from manufacturing and toward services. This structural shift, which the U.S. undertook painfully 30 years ago, should include higher spending on technology and other 21st century economic growth engines.

????S&P has sent a clear message to Italy that growth is key to its economic survival. It is a message that other nations, both inside and outside the eurozone, would be wise to listen to if they want to avoid a downgrade in the near future.