????19日晚上，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾（Standard and Poor's）突然下調(diào)了意大利主權(quán)債信評(píng)級(jí)，凸顯了該國(guó)當(dāng)前政策的致命缺陷：在經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟不振的國(guó)家推行嚴(yán)厲的緊縮措施，負(fù)面效應(yīng)不容忽視。

????削減政府服務(wù)及提高稅收可能會(huì)拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，意大利和其他歐元區(qū)邊緣成員國(guó)本來(lái)就深陷債務(wù)泥潭，在緊縮政策下，信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不降反增。這樣就造成了一種惡性循環(huán)，可能造成一國(guó)越來(lái)越依賴外部援助，直至最終債務(wù)違約。這種形勢(shì)惡化造成的動(dòng)蕩將使今后幾周的市場(chǎng)交易面臨嚴(yán)重的不確定性，許多投資者將因此逃離市場(chǎng)。

????標(biāo)普19日宣布，將意大利的長(zhǎng)期和短期國(guó)債信用評(píng)級(jí)分別下調(diào)一個(gè)等級(jí)至A/A-1。今年夏季，歐元區(qū)危機(jī)惡化后，標(biāo)普此前已將意大利置入“負(fù)面展望”行列。

????意大利公共債務(wù)總額高達(dá)1.9萬(wàn)億歐元，是全球最大的債務(wù)國(guó)，而且直到今年夏季之前，該國(guó)債券市場(chǎng)的流動(dòng)性在全球還名列前茅。標(biāo)普調(diào)低意大利債信評(píng)級(jí)時(shí)解釋稱：主要是擔(dān)心該國(guó)上周通過(guò)的大規(guī)模緊縮計(jì)劃會(huì)“搬起石頭砸自己的腳”。標(biāo)普表示，上述計(jì)劃可能會(huì)引發(fā)“外部需求進(jìn)一步減少”，從而降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)疲軟又將使意大利難以實(shí)現(xiàn)其財(cái)務(wù)目標(biāo)——比如在2013年前實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)算平衡。

????意大利推出這份規(guī)模達(dá)550億歐元的緊縮計(jì)劃，并非一時(shí)異想天開(kāi)——基本上可說(shuō)是在歐洲央行（ECB）的逼迫下的無(wú)奈之舉。今年夏季早些時(shí)候，歐元區(qū)危機(jī)的蔓延使投資者紛紛回避意大利債券拍賣，該國(guó)債券收益率隨之大幅飆升，不僅增加了意大利政府的融資成本，還大大提高了未來(lái)的債券發(fā)行拍賣流標(biāo)的可能性。只有通過(guò)不斷借新債換舊債，意大利才能不被龐大的債務(wù)壓倒，保持清償能力，因此拍賣失敗將造成災(zāi)難性的后果。

????為了降低這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，歐洲央行挺身而出，開(kāi)始在二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上收購(gòu)意大利國(guó)債，簡(jiǎn)而言之，即從容易受到驚嚇的私人投資者手中接盤。歐洲央行的這一舉措是有條件的：意大利必須實(shí)現(xiàn)一些財(cái)政目標(biāo)，恢復(fù)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序。去年希臘債券市場(chǎng)停擺，歐洲央行和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（the International Monetary Fund）不得不加以救援，當(dāng)時(shí)希臘也接受了類似的要求。

增長(zhǎng)是關(guān)鍵

????The surprise downgrade of Italy's sovereign debt overnight by Standard and Poor's exposes the fatal flaws of pushing through draconian austerity measures on a nation experiencing economic weakness.

????Cutting services and raising taxes will slow economic growth, making heavily indebted countries like Italy and the rest of the eurozone periphery more of a credit risk than ever before. This creates a downward spiral in which a country becomes dependent on bailouts until it finally defaults. The volatility created by this downgrade will produce a considerable amount of uncertainty in the markets in the coming weeks, keeping many investors on the sidelines.

????S&P downgraded Italy's long-term and short-term sovereign debt rating one-notch to A/A-1. The nation was put on a "Negative Outlook" by S&P in the summer as the euro crisis intensified.

????At 1.9 trillion euros, the Italian debt market is one of the largest and, up until this summer, one of the most liquid debt markets in the world. In downgrading Italy, S&P said it was concerned that the country could be shooting itself in the foot by passing a massive austerity plan last week. It fears that the plan could lead to "more subdued external demand," therefore reducing economic growth. This reduced growth rate would then make it unlikely that Italy could hit its fiscal targets, like attaining a balanced budget by 2013.

????Italy didn't take on this 55 billion euro austerity plan on a whim -- it was essentially forced to do it by the European Central Bank. Earlier this summer, the euro contagion caused investors to step away from Italian bond auctions, forcing Italian bond yields to skyrocket. This increased Italy's funding costs and raised the possibility that there could be a failed auction for future debt offerings. Italy depends on rolling over its huge debt load to stay solvent, so a failed auction would be devastating.

????To offset this risk, the ECB came out and started buying Italian bonds on the secondary market, essentially taking the place of skittish private investors. This move by the ECB was done on the condition that Italy meets certain fiscal targets to get its economic house in order. It was similar to the demands placed on Greece last year when that nation's debt market froze up, forcing the ECB and the International Monetary Fund to bail it out.

Growth is key