美國摧毀歐洲經濟

????人們越來越擔憂這些債券將大幅貶值，甚至出現違約，金融市場為之動蕩不安。事實上，美國股市最近的暴跌，以及那瘋狂的波動，一方面是因為標普（S&P）下調了美國債信評級所致，另一方面也正是因為歐洲債務危機蔓延。大量傳言稱，持有成百上千億歐元意大利和西班牙國債的銀行可能很難維持短期融資能力，而這種能力是它們的生命線。

????即使歐洲銀行不會面臨流動性緊縮問題，如果其持有的主權債券貶值，其資本仍將嚴重下降，這將迫使它們停止發放新貸款。信貸緊縮可能會把歐洲推入嚴重的經濟衰退，而這又可能扼殺美國經濟復蘇，因為美國出口的商品中有21%進入歐盟市場。現在，即使出現世界末日般的局面也是有可能的，屆時某個或多個經濟脆弱的國家將放棄歐元，造成極為龐大的違約及全歐范圍的銀行崩潰。

????確定無疑的是，歐洲經濟增長已經在急劇放緩，而且可能會持續走軟。原因在于：利率將遠遠高于預期，而銀行因為擔心資本充裕度問題，將會越發惜貸。“企業和消費者貸款的利率完全取決于政府借款的成本，而后者正在迅速攀升，”卡內基基金會（Carnegie Endowment）經濟學家尤里?達杜什指出，“所有這些不確定性使公司不愿進行新的投資，也不愿招聘新員工。他們的計劃不得不暫時擱淺。”

????這場債務危機很大程度上意味著歐盟、特別是成員國多達17個國家的歐元區未能實現當初的承諾，這一慘敗令人震驚。歐元1999年啟用，旨在促使歐洲國家締結更緊密的經濟聯盟，使希臘和意大利等經濟較弱的國家能從繁榮昌盛的伙伴國家那里獲得力量，彌合雙方在增長率和生產力方面的鴻溝。

????歐元被贊譽為歐盟最具代表性的成就，是使歐洲與美國和亞洲平起平坐而押下的重注，但它并未取得成功。意大利、西班牙和希臘等國并未推行市場自由化，而是保留了幾乎所有最惡劣、最不利于競爭的政策，包括集中工資談判制和支持零售業卡特爾的限制性牌照政策等。現在，維系歐元區不致解體的唯一原因是：法國、特別是德國等富國仍愿意提供巨額援助資金，同時歐洲央行（the European Central Bank）遠遠超出其章程規定的權限行事，極力支持經濟弱國。8月中旬，歐洲央行甚至同意購入西班牙和意大利債券，以緩解這兩個國家的壓力。

????沒人能知道這些緊急措施能維持多久。因此，債務危機已經迫使歐洲走到了一個歷史性的轉折點。虛度多年光陰后，各國政府現在必須爭分奪秒。它們面臨的挑戰包括兩個層面：首先，債臺高筑的國家必須迅速消滅龐大的財政赤字，防止債務越滾越多；其次，這些國家必須證明自己能獲得足夠的增長速度，從而滿足清償現有到期債務之需，進而削減債務負擔。這就要求它們強力推行開放市場改革，迅速完成經濟現代化的艱難使命——這些改革本該在幾十年前就開始推行了。

????歐洲作出了許多不明智的選擇，浪費了不少寶貴機會，因此深受其害，最近我走訪了最有代表性地反映了這一切問題的國家——希臘。繁榮轉眼之間就成了災難，難怪不少希臘人茫然不知所措。“我們意識到希臘已經破產。如果不作出改變，這個國家就完了。”芭芭拉?維尼科斯如是說。她是該國最大的奢侈品進口商之一Notos Com旗下百貨商店部門的首席執行官。不過，希臘人對本國政界非常懷疑，不相信他們有能力降服工會和卡特爾，并實現承諾。如果他們無力做到，那這個民主的發源地可能會把歐洲各國的政府統統拖入混亂。

How Washington is destroying the economy

????The growing fear that those bonds will plummet in value, or even default, is roiling financial markets. Indeed, the recent plunge in U.S. stock prices -- and the manic volatility -- is as much about the contagion in Europe as the S&P downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt. Rumors are rife that French banks, which own tens of billions of euros in Italian and Spanish bonds, may be struggling to maintain the short-term financing that's their lifeblood.

????Even if Europe's banks don't face a liquidity crunch, a drop in the value of sovereign bonds would severely deplete their capital, forcing them to halt new lending. The credit crunch would probably throw Europe into a severe recession. That in turn could kill the U.S. recovery, since the European Union accounts for 21% of U.S. exports. Even a truly apocalyptic outcome -- where one or more weak nations abandon the euro, causing gigantic defaults and a Europe-wide banking crash -- can no longer be dismissed.

????What's certain is that growth in Europe is already slowing sharply and will probably keep weakening. The reason: Interest rates will be far higher than predicted, and banks, worried over their capital levels, will be increasingly reluctant to lend. "The rates on corporate and consumer loans all depend on what it costs the government to borrow, and that number is rising fast," says Uri Dadush, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment. "All the uncertainty makes companies wary about making new investments and hiring people. Their plans go on hold."

????Most of all the debt crisis represents the stunning failure of the European Union, and especially the 17-nation eurozone, to deliver on its promise. Launched in 1999, the euro currency was designed to bind nations into a tighter economic union so that weaker members such as Greece and Italy would draw strength from their prosperous partners and close the gap in growth and productivity.

????What was lauded as the EU's crowning achievement -- its bid to remake Europe as an equal of the U.S. and Asia -- didn't succeed. Instead of liberalizing their markets, countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece left almost all of their worst, anticompetitive practices in place -- from centralized wage bargaining to restrictive licensing that supports cartels in retailing. Now the only thing keeping the eurozone from collapse is the willingness of rich countries such as France and especially Germany to provide big bailouts and of the European Central Bank to roam far from its charter to support the weaklings. In mid-August the ECB agreed to buy Spanish and Italian bonds to ease the pressure on those countries.

????It's impossible to know how long the emergency measures will last. Hence the debt crisis has driven Europe to a historic inflection point. After dawdling for years, governments must race to beat the clock. The challenge is twofold. First, the debt-ridden nations need to close their big budget deficits rapidly so that debt won't continue escalating. Second, they need to prove they can grow fast enough to service, then lower, the debt they have now. That will require a rapid and difficult campaign to modernize their economies by ramming through market-opening reforms they should have imposed decades ago.

????I recently traveled to the nation that best symbolizes all the poor choices and lost opportunities that are now haunting Europe -- Greece. The Greeks are dazed that years of prosperity turned so rapidly to disaster. "We recognize that Greece is bankrupt, and if we don't change it's over," says Barbara Vernicos, CEO of the department store division of Notos Com, one the nation's largest importers of luxury goods. But Greeks deeply doubt the ability of their politicians to face down the unions and cartels and deliver. And if they can't, the country that invented democracy might plunge a whole continent of governments into chaos.