黃金投資高手：金價攀升完全合理
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????繼漲勢短暫歇息幾個月之后，金價又重歸其看似勢不可擋、漫無止境的攀升行情。在上周股市急劇震蕩之際，金價曾一度上沖至每盎司1,800美元，之后隨股市反彈而回落到每盎司 1,770美元。見過以前只會在貧困居民區出現的那種“現金回購黃金”的招牌吧？現在別惦記著賣金換現，雖然你母親很可能上周已經準備賣掉幾副耳環了。 ????為了對目前情況加以解讀，《財富》雜志（Fortune）有幸對資金規模達31億美元的第一雄鷹黃金基金（First Eagle Gold Fund）聯合投資組合經理雷切爾?貝內普進行了一次采訪。2009年3月份，吉恩-邁瑞?艾維拉德于轉任該基金公司高級顧問之后，貝內普和阿布伊?戴西潘德一起接替了最初由他擔任的該基金投資組合經理這一要職。迄今為止，他倆尚未玷污該基金的聲譽：倘若你五年前在該基金投資了10,000美元——其最低投資額只需2,500美元，如今就能坐擁18,766美元；而相比之下，如果你在同一時期投資于標準普爾500指數的話，現在反而會蒙受損失。 ????讓我們直奔主題吧。在目前這個價位購買黃金不是太瘋狂？ ????我們不對金價加以預測，這是因為我們把黃金作為一種對沖工具。從這個角度來考慮，只要金價走勢存在其合理理由，實際上就沒有人能夠說黃金目前是否過于昂貴。讓我們看看自雷曼兄弟公司（Lehman）2008年破產以來金價的變化情況。金價每次發生實質性波動都相應存在一個合理理由。我們還沒有看到金價出現任何毫無道理的實質性波動。上周，歐美的確有點出乎意料，出現一系列顯而易見的問題，因而黃金上沖至每盎司1,800美元。有人為保護自己的投資組合而瘋狂購買黃金嗎？我不這么認為。請記住，市場上有越來越多的人逐漸意識到，黃金可以作為對沖工具。這也促使金價上漲。但要說黃金目前的市場定價錯誤的話，那就是對黃金的看法不正確了。黃金可以保護購買力。如果股市下跌，那么黃金就應該上漲。而且，金價是上漲還是下跌并沒有關系，只要其走勢合理即可。 |
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????After taking a breather there for a few months, gold prices have resumed their seemingly inexorable rise to infinity. Amidst the mayhem of last week, the metal briefly touched $1,800-per-ounce before sliding back to $1,770 as the stock market rebounded. Those "cash-for-gold" signs you used to see only in distressed neighborhoods? Don't look now, but your mother was probably selling a few sets of earrings last week. ????To get a read on things, Fortune caught up with Rachel Benepe, co-manager of the $3.1 billion First Eagle Gold Fund (SGGDX). Along with Abhay Deshpande, Benepe stepped into the very big shoes of Jean-Marie Eveillard when he transitioned to a senior advisor role at the fund in March 2009. And they haven't tarnished the fund's reputation yet: Had you invested $10,000 in the fund five years ago—which only requires a minimum of $2,500—you would be sitting on $18,766 today, as opposed to losing money in the S&P 500. ????Let's get right to the point. Are people insane to be buying gold at these levels? ????We don't forecast the price of gold, and that's because we view it as a hedge. Considered from that perspective, no one can really say if it's too expensive or not, as long as the price moves for rational reasons. Look at the price changes since Lehman failed in 2008. Every move of gold has happened for a rational reason. We haven't seen a single move out of context. Last week, there were obvious issues in the U.S. and Europe that kind of came out of left field, and gold hit $1,800. Is someone insane for wanting to protect their portfolio? I don't think so. Keep in mind, too, that more and more people are becoming aware that it can serve as hedge. That, too, has been driving up the price. But to say it's mispriced is the wrong way to look at it. It protects your purchasing power. Gold should go up when equities go down. It doesn't matter which way it's moving, either, as long as it's happening in a rational way. |
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????作為黃金基金的投資組合經理，你可以購買金條，也可以購買金礦股。如何在任一特定的時間節點決定到底是購買金條還是購買金礦股呢？ ????不妨換一種方式來考慮這個問題，即既可以購買地面上的黃金——也就是金條——也可以購買地下的黃金——那就是通過金礦股。雖然我確實說過——無法估計金價是過高還是過低，但我們仍然希望每盎司黃金的價格盡可能便宜，而相對于購買金條而言，目前金礦股就為我們提供了以更為便宜的價格獲得黃金的方式。今年年初以來，許多國家的中央銀行（央行只能購買金條）就已經這樣做了，導致礦業股價格相比金價而言表現不佳——2011年迄今金條價格已上漲20％以上，但金礦類股交易所交易基金（ETF）GDX同期下跌3.7％。通常，相對于金條價格任何向上或向下的變化，金礦股都會顯示出2至3倍的杠桿效應。因此，金礦股目前肯定是表現滯后了。 ????如果說黃金開采出來之后都是一樣的，那么金礦公司所處的地理位置是否重要？在選擇金礦股時是否應該避開某些國家呢？ ????當然。由于政治風險，我們會對某些地方比較謹慎。我們傾向于不要持有俄羅斯的金礦公司股票。我們擔心俄羅斯有這種可能：一旦找到高品位的金礦，外國投資者可能再也無法繼續持有該金礦股份。所以，國有化一定是種風險。這一點同樣適用于委內瑞拉。我們也非常不愿意持有中國的金礦公司股票。我們持有一家在中國擁有金礦的加拿大公司。我們通常希望投資于采礦法完備、采礦勞力穩定、稅收及所有權清晰的地區。請注意，我們確實對采礦業進行風險分析，這意味著，從正常儲量的角度考慮屬安全管轄區域的金礦可能并不利于黃金投資。比如，與南非的一個金礦相比，投資位于阿拉斯加的一個未開發金礦可能面臨的風險要高出許多，因為這首先就會面臨一系列環境問題，除此之外還有其他方面的風險。 ????你們現在看好哪些股票？ ????目前在這方面南非提供了一些非常有吸引力的機會。因為我們把黃金視為一種對沖工具，而不像那些黃金死多頭那樣認為金價將無止境地一直上漲下去，所以我們偏好那些目前正在開采而且擁有已探明可能儲量的金礦公司。南非各金礦公司擁有長期儲量，它們一直在開采黃金，而且在金礦開采方面擁有一個清晰的行動計劃。澳大利亞紐克雷斯特礦業公司（Newcrest Mining）是我們目前持倉最大的股票。我們還非常看好加拿大黃金公司（Goldcorp）。它們經營一系列大型而且多重資產的公司，而且對旗下這些公司的管理非常不錯。它們為投資者提供了大量黃金儲量，而且都位于安全的管轄區域。我們非常喜歡這一點。 ????對金價走勢有對沖安排的金礦公司呢？ ????我們不買這些公司股票。它們對金價走勢已有了自己的看法，我們用不著。我們需要的是黃金。我們希望能從金礦股因金價漲跌走勢而出現的杠桿效應中獲利。我們不喜歡某些金礦公司的首席執行官（CEO）對金價走勢形成自己的宏觀看法。有時他們這樣做是為了保護某項金礦開采工程的經濟價值，雖然我們對此可以接受，但我們還是傾向于不碰這些公司的股票。我們會躲開對金價走勢做出對沖安排的金礦公司。 ????你們仍然持有金條，對不對？ ????是的，我們確實持有金條。目前我們基金約有17％的資產是金條，其余資產是金礦股。而且我們目前是全倉投資，手頭不留任何現金。 ????個人投資者該何去何從？我現在是否應該囤積金條？ ????我們認為，個人投資者購買黃金的最佳途徑是通過主動管理型黃金基金。雖然金礦公司開采的黃金都一樣，但每家金礦公司都有各自的經濟狀況及各自的獨特情況，因而通過這些公司股票而購買到的資產都極為不同。最好讓投資組合經理來替你選擇所要投資的金礦公司股票，他們經常與這些公司的管理團隊互通聲氣，在各金礦公司開采現場都有人脈關系，而這些人對金礦公司之間差異的了解遠勝于普通投資者。另外，個人投資者如果打算在投資組合中加入金條資產的話，會相當困難。投資者必須購買一個保險箱——它的價格相當于一根金條的十分之一——而我們只需購買金條本身。 ????黃金在個人投資者整體投資組合中所占的百分比應該是多少？如果擔心世界末日即將到來，我是不是應該全部投資于黃金？ ????我們一般建議個人投資者把10％左右的資產投資在黃金上，尤其是時局不穩定的時期。一旦超過這個投資比例，就是在投機了。而低于5％的黃金資產配置則無法有效抵御任何風險，大家都知道，現在紙幣體系出現許多問題。但是，這并不意味著所有最壞的情況都將會發生。我們都希望活在一個不需要依靠黃金來對沖風險的世界里——包括我們First Eagle基金公司的工作人員在內也是希望如此。除非想投機而押注所有這些糟糕事情都會發生，否則我們會把個人投資組合中的黃金資產配置比例控制在最高不超過15％的水平。 ????我們是否會回歸金本位制？最近很多人都這么說，比如羅恩?保羅。 ????總會有人這樣認為。從我們的角度來看，目前紙幣體系面臨的主要問題是，各國央行始終擁有開動印鈔機的選擇權。他們很難有堅定的決心來切實解決問題，而不是通過通脹來尋找出路并擺脫困境。但我真的對世界將很快重歸完全金本位制持懷疑態度。可以看到，各國央行行長都已經意識到，需要在各自外匯儲備中切實配置黃金。黃金已存在幾千年了，而紙幣則經歷了興衰更替。不論是獨裁國家還是民主國家都接受黃金。只有黃金是終極貨幣。 ????翻譯：iDo98 |
????As a gold fund manager, you can buy bullion or you can buy gold mining stocks. How do you decide which to purchase at any particular point in time? ????Another way you can look at it is you can buy gold above ground —that's bullion — or you can buy gold below ground — and that would be through mining stocks. While I did say you couldn't call gold overpriced or underpriced, we still want the cheapest ounces possible, and stocks offer a much less expensive way to get them at the moment. Since the beginning of the year, many central banks, which can only buy bullion, have been doing just that. And that's caused the prices of the mining stocks to underperform — gold bullion is up more than 20% in 2011, but the sector ETF, GDX, is down 3.7%. Gold stocks normally show 2 to 3 times leverage on any move in bullion, up or down. So they are definitely lagging. ????Does geography matter if all gold is the same once it's out of the ground? Are there countries that you avoid? ????Absolutely. We have places that we are more cautious of because of political risk. We tend not to own Russian gold mining companies. We worry about the possibility that if you find something really good, you may no longer be able to hold onto it as a foreign investor. So nationalization is certainly a risk. The same goes for Venezuela. We also don't really want to own Chinese gold mining companies. We own one Canadian company that has mines in China. We tend to want to invest where there is defined mining law, established mining labor, and where issues of taxation and ownership are clear. Mind you, we do analyze risk in the context of mining industry, which means that things that are safe jurisdictions from normal stock perspective might not be good in gold. An undeveloped gold mine in Alaska, for example, could be a far riskier investment than a mine in South Africa, starting with environmental issues and moving on from there. ????So what stocks do you like right now? ????The South Africans offer some interesting opportunities at the moment. Because we view it as a hedge, and not like the gold bugs who think it's going up forever, we like mines that are in production with proven and probable reserves. South African mines have long reserves, they've been operating forever, and they have a clear path for getting gold out of the ground. Newcrest Mining is our largest holding. We also like Goldcorp (GG). They operate large, multi-asset companies, and do a good job of managing portfolios. They offer investors a lot of ounces, in safe jurisdictions. And we like that. ????What about gold companies that hedge? ????We don't buy them. They have taken a view of the metal, and we're not asking for that. We want access to the ounces. We want leverage up or down. We don't want some CEO's macro view on the price of gold. Sometimes they have to do it to protect the economics of a project, and while that can be acceptable, we tend not to buy them either. We avoid those companies that hedge. ????But you still own bullion, right? ????Yes, we do. We have about 17% in bullion and the rest in stocks. And we're fully invested—we're not sitting on any cash. ????What about individuals? Should I be hoarding gold bars right now? ????In our view, the best way for an individual investor to buy gold is through an actively managed gold fund. While gold mining companies all mine the same good, each mine has its own economics and its own unusual situations that make the assets you're buying very different. You're better off with a portfolio manager who is talking to all those management teams and has people on the ground who will undoubtedly understand those differences better than you would be able to. Plus, if you're looking to have a bullion component to your portfolio, it's pretty hard to do that as an individual. You still have to buy a security—which represents one tenth of a gold bar—whereas we buy bullion itself. ????What about the percentage of gold in my overall portfolio? Should I go whole-hog if I am worried that the world is going to end? ????We generally suggest around 10%, and especially so in this type of uncertain environment. But any more than that and you're speculating. And an allocation of less than 5% won't protect your portfolio effectively from anything. Everyone knows that many things are going wrong in the paper monetary system right now. But that doesn't mean that any of the worst-case scenarios are actually going to happen. We all want a world—and that includes us at First Eagle—where you don't need a gold hedge. Unless you really want to be speculating that all those bad things are going to be happening, we'd keep it below a maximum of 15%. ????Are we going back to the gold standard? I'm hearing a lot more people talk about that these days, not the least of whom is Ron Paul. ????You always have had people who think that. From our standpoint, the primary problem with the paper money system is that central bankers always have the option to print more money. It's hard for them to have the fortitude to actually deal with issues instead of inflating their way out of them. But I really doubt we're going to see a full gold standard any time soon. What we could see is central bankers realizing they all need a real allocation to gold in their foreign exchange reserves. It's been around for thousands of years, whereas paper currencies come and go. And it's accepted by both dictator and democracy alike. At the end of the day, it's the ultimate currency. |
