????沃倫?巴菲特在奧馬哈接受我的電話采訪時(shí)說(shuō)：“恐懼與貪婪之間沒(méi)有可比性。”他大聲說(shuō)道：“恐懼是瞬間產(chǎn)生的、普遍存在的、激烈的情緒。而貪婪則更加緩慢?？謶质侵旅??！碑?dāng)天是8月9日，星期二，幾個(gè)小時(shí)之前，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）剛剛宣布，至少在2013年之前，美國(guó)將維持接近零利率的水平；并且，美國(guó)股市再次出現(xiàn)了報(bào)復(fù)性的反彈——時(shí)間正好處于周一和周三股市出現(xiàn)的兩次暴跌之間。

????對(duì)于我們這些凡夫俗子來(lái)說(shuō)，今年夏天的股市暴跌令人難以承受，甚至?xí)耠娪啊锻堤烨榫墶罚℅roundhog Day）中的主人公一樣感慨：“天啊，我受夠了……”但對(duì)于巴菲特而言，這一切卻讓他精神百倍。那天，他像往常一樣爽朗，并表示他“感覺(jué)非常好。”為什么不呢？正如巴菲特所說(shuō)：“股票的價(jià)格越低，我就會(huì)大筆買進(jìn)。目前正是我們大舉買進(jìn)的時(shí)機(jī)?！薄举I進(jìn)的對(duì)象包括證券，以及大公司，當(dāng)然前提是能找到收購(gòu)的目標(biāo)】（不過(guò)，他肯定不會(huì)告訴我又有哪些低廉的股票成了他的獵物。）巴菲特總是把他的工作描繪地輕松無(wú)比，但實(shí)際情況當(dāng)然并非如此。要想像他一樣，你得擁有一個(gè)數(shù)十億美元的“戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)基金”，像鈦金屬一樣穩(wěn)定的神經(jīng)，還要有一個(gè)聰明的、善于分析的大腦。龐大的團(tuán)隊(duì)倒并非不可或缺的條件。

????我致電巴菲特，是希望了解一下他公司的近況，作為一個(gè)多元化精英的企業(yè)集團(tuán)或控股公司，伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司應(yīng)該可以有效地反映總體經(jīng)濟(jì)。但鑒于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾（S&P）在調(diào)低美國(guó)國(guó)債的信用評(píng)級(jí)后不久，又將伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司的債券評(píng)級(jí)（被評(píng)為AA+級(jí)）預(yù)期從“穩(wěn)定”調(diào)低至“負(fù)面”，因此，首先我要征求一下他對(duì)這件事的看法。

市政債券是否安全？

????那么巴菲特先生對(duì)此有何看法？“以前，他們聲稱，如果他們修改對(duì)政府的評(píng)級(jí)，必然也會(huì)降低對(duì)一些保險(xiǎn)公司的預(yù)期，因?yàn)檫@些公司都持有大量的政府公債?！景头铺卦诮邮苊襟w采訪時(shí)曾經(jīng)表示，伯克希爾公司持有的現(xiàn)金中，有超過(guò)400億美元為美國(guó)短期國(guó)債。】所以，我能夠理解調(diào)低伯克希爾評(píng)級(jí)，它是調(diào)低美國(guó)債務(wù)評(píng)級(jí)的聯(lián)動(dòng)反應(yīng)，但我并不贊同降低美國(guó)國(guó)債的評(píng)級(jí)。美國(guó)國(guó)債依然是3A評(píng)級(jí)，畢竟，我們肯定能夠償還利息和本金，這一點(diǎn)是毋庸置疑的。美國(guó)能夠償還每一份合約。所以，我們的國(guó)債依然是3A評(píng)級(jí)。雖然我們的貨幣——美元——已經(jīng)不是3A評(píng)級(jí)，但國(guó)債的評(píng)級(jí)依然不變?！?/p>

????那他的公司運(yùn)行狀況是否良好？“到目前為止，我們所有業(yè)務(wù)都在穩(wěn)步回升，即便歐洲市場(chǎng)也沒(méi)有想象中的那么遭——當(dāng)然，與住宅建設(shè)相關(guān)的公司除外，因?yàn)樗鼈冞€沒(méi)有完全擺脫困境?！局匾氖?，巴菲特承認(rèn)，如果過(guò)去幾周的情形得以延續(xù)，情況會(huì)有所改變。】公司業(yè)務(wù)一直在穩(wěn)步回升，甚至超出了公眾預(yù)期。”當(dāng)然，巴菲特的這些話也可能是在試圖影響公眾情緒，但巴菲特對(duì)公司的數(shù)據(jù)極其依賴，他應(yīng)該不會(huì)在數(shù)字上做手腳。

????兩個(gè)例子：位于以色列伊斯卡的一家伯克希爾子公司主要生成機(jī)械切削工具，目前已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)跡象。巴菲特表示：“經(jīng)過(guò)多個(gè)季度的等待，終于出現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)?！彼€補(bǔ)充道，這并不是因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)份額增加?！岸且馕吨_(kāi)工率在上升?！卑头铺仄煜碌牧硗庖患夜綯TI主要出售小型電子部件。他表示：“有點(diǎn)像賣軟糖豆，不過(guò)我們的銷售額有數(shù)十億美元，并且還在增長(zhǎng)?！边€有一家公司：“在奈特捷公司（NetJets），客戶的飛行里數(shù)也出現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)。勞力士（Rolex）手表——我們是美國(guó)最大的勞力士手表經(jīng)銷商——今年銷量上漲了27%”

????但伯克希爾公司是否有招聘計(jì)劃？很多公司都宣稱經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況良好，因?yàn)樯a(chǎn)情況優(yōu)異。但這家公司的情況比較復(fù)雜。巴菲特說(shuō)，所有公司都希望每年都能擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)。巴菲特稱，上個(gè)月，伯克希爾旗下的地毯生產(chǎn)廠商Shaw解雇了400名員工，累計(jì)裁員約6,000人。當(dāng)然，Shaw的業(yè)務(wù)確實(shí)與深陷泥潭的住宅建筑行業(yè)相關(guān)?！暗鹊叫袠I(yè)回暖時(shí)，我們可能會(huì)增加數(shù)千名員工?！倍硪环矫?，由于業(yè)務(wù)量增加，伯克希爾旗下的大型鐵路運(yùn)營(yíng)商伯靈頓北方公司（Burlington Northern）今年將新增3,500個(gè)工作崗位。政府雇員保險(xiǎn)公司（GEICO）今年雖然只增加了700個(gè)工作崗位，但他說(shuō)：“我們?cè)谶@一行業(yè)的【市場(chǎng)】份額正在增加。”

????我問(wèn)巴菲特，這是否意味著看好保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)的前景？他的回答是并不盡然。

????“汽車保險(xiǎn)業(yè)的行情一直不錯(cuò)，但自然災(zāi)害造成了惡劣的影響。第一季度，國(guó)外發(fā)生的天災(zāi)給我們帶來(lái)了沉重的打擊，第二季度，國(guó)內(nèi)又接連發(fā)生了自然災(zāi)害?！卑头铺刂傅氖侨毡镜臑?zāi)難和新西蘭的地震，尤其是第二次克萊斯特徹奇地震，此次地震對(duì)新西蘭GDP造成的損失是卡特里娜颶風(fēng)的十倍。巴菲特表示：“第一季度，我們針對(duì)與人身傷亡有關(guān)的損失建立了4,000萬(wàn)美元儲(chǔ)備金，其中500萬(wàn)美元用于新西蘭，3,500萬(wàn)美元用于日本。自然災(zāi)害造成如此嚴(yán)重的人身保險(xiǎn)損失，這種情況確實(shí)非常罕見(jiàn)。”美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的災(zāi)害是指美國(guó)歷史上最嚴(yán)重的颶風(fēng)季，包括肆虐阿拉巴馬州和密蘇里州喬普林市的暴風(fēng)。而且，巴菲特表示，惡劣天氣仍在美國(guó)繼續(xù)肆虐：8月1日，紐約州長(zhǎng)島發(fā)生了反常的雹災(zāi)，導(dǎo)致15,000起理賠，總價(jià)值約為6,000萬(wàn)美元，而且這還只是汽車?yán)碣r的金額。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)維持低利率的決定在周二引起了股市的反彈，巴菲特對(duì)此有何看法？他說(shuō)：“我很少會(huì)考慮這種事情?！蔽覇?wèn)他，在他掌握的數(shù)據(jù)流當(dāng)中，是否有跡象讓他擔(dān)心美國(guó)會(huì)陷入新一輪衰退。“目前還沒(méi)有?？赡苓€需要一點(diǎn)時(shí)間才會(huì)顯現(xiàn)?！?/p>

????與此同時(shí)，巴菲特正在計(jì)劃買進(jìn)股票——很明顯，同時(shí)他也打算發(fā)售伯克希爾的債券。據(jù)報(bào)道，伯克希爾正在利用歷史最低的利率，通過(guò)發(fā)行債券，以極其廉價(jià)的成本籌集資金。對(duì)于巴菲特來(lái)說(shuō)，至少目前還不是恐懼的時(shí)候，而是采取行動(dòng)的大好時(shí)機(jī)。

????（翻譯 劉進(jìn)龍）

????"There is no comparison between fear and greed," Warren Buffett is telling me over the phone from Omaha. "Fear is instant, pervasive and intense. Greed is slower. Fear hits," he exclaims. It's Tuesday August 9th, a little less than an hour after the Federal Reserve announced it would hold interest rates at close to zero for two more years and the stock market has gone into yet another major spasm—up at that moment between two hugely down days.

????For us mere mortals, this summer's stock market meltdown has a grinding, Groundhog Day feel to it, as in: 'Oh no, not again…" But for Buffett it's invigorating. Today he's his usual chipper self, saying he's "never been better." And why not? As Buffett reminds me, "The lower things go, the more I buy. We are in the business of buying," [both securities and, if he can find them, big companies.] (And no, he won't tell me what he's picking up on the cheap.) Buffett always makes his job sound so easy, but of course it isn't. All you need is a multi-billion dollar war chest, nerves of titanium, and a brilliant, analytical mind. Not a very big group there.

????I'm calling Buffett to ask him about his company's businesses, because as a diversified conglomerate or holding company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) is a fairly reflective proxy of the overall economy. But first I had to ask him about S&P lowering the outlook for Berkshire Hathaway debt (which is rated AA+) from stable to negative in the wake of the credit down grade of U.S. Treasuries.

How safe are your munis?

????So what about it Mr. B? "They said some time ago that if they changed the ratings on governments they would lower the outlook on certain insurance companies because they own a lot of governments. [Buffett reportedly said that Berkshire holds more than $40 billion of its cash in short term Treasuries.] So as a derivative move I understand it, but I don't agree with it because I don't agree with the Treasury downgrade. U.S. Treasuries are still triple-A in that there is no question that we will repay the interest and the principal. Every contract will be repaid. So our bonds are triple-A. Our currency, the dollar, is not triple-A. Our bonds are."

????So what about the health of his businesses? "Up until right now, all of our businesses have been coming back---even Europe isn't doing that badly---except for businesses relating to home construction which is on its rear end. [Importantly Buffett did say that if events continue like the last few weeks it will change things.] Business has been coming back steadily, even more than the mood of the public." Of course, some of this talk may be Buffett trying to jawbone that public mood, but remember Buffett is a voracious consumer of his businesses' numbers and wouldn't be one to misrepresent them.

????Two examples: A Berkshire subsidiary based in Israel, Iscar, which makes cutting tools for machines, is showing growth, "quarter after quarter," Buffett says, adding that this isn't because of market share gains. "It means that the machines are operating more." Buffett has another company, TTI, which sells tiny electronic parts. "It's like selling jelly beans, but we sell billions of dollars of them and it is up." And there's more too: "NetJets' miles flown by customers are up. Rolex watches -- we are the largest seller of Rolexes in the U.S. -- are up 27% this year," he says.

????Ah, but is Berkshire hiring anyone? We hear so much about businesses being in good shape because they are so productive. Here things are mixed. Every business looks for productivity gains every year, Buffett notes. Shaw, Berkshire's carpet manufacturer, let 400 people go over the last month or so, and is down some 6,000 employees overall, Buffett says. Shaw's business, of course, is closely tied to the beleaguered homebuilding business. "But when that business comes back, we will add thousands of employees some day." On the flip side, Berkshire's giant railroad, Burlington Northern is adding some 3,500 jobs this year as business has picked up. And insurance company GEICO has added 700 jobs, "but we're gaining [market] share there," he says.

So the insurance business is good, I ask Buffett? Not exactly.

????"Auto has been good, but catastrophes have been bad. International hit us in the first quarter, and domestic in the second." By that Buffett means the tragedy in Japan and earthquakes in New Zealand, in particular the second Christchurch quake which cased as much damage relative to New Zealand's GDP as ten Hurricane Katrina's. "We set up a reserve of $40 million for death related losses in the first quarter, $5 million for New Zealand and $35 million for Japan. Natural catastrophes that produce life insurance losses of this order are very unusual," Buffett says. The domestic debacles were the worst tornado season in history, which included the storms in Alabama and Joplin, Missouri. And Buffett says the elements continue to be most unkind: A freak hailstorm on Long Island, NY on August 1st, led to 15,000 claims worth $60 million, just in auto claims.

????And so what does Buffett think about the Fed's move to hold rates low that has the market all in a tizzy that Tuesday? "I don't really think about things like that," he reminds me. I ask him if he sees anything in his data stream that is giving him cause to worry about another downturn. "Not yet, but it would take a little while to show up."

????In the meantime, Buffett is looking to buy stocks -- oh, and apparently to sell Berkshire bonds too. Berkshire is reportedly taking advantage of record low rates and issuing bonds to raise dirt-cheap capital. For Buffett right now at least, this is not a time for fear. This is a time for action.