????形形色色被視為聰明人的人士眼下正提醒我們，美國經濟發展步子放緩，美國可能會重新陷入衰退。用來描述我們經濟形勢的新說法是“失速速度”（stall speed）。

????好吧，這個說法到底是什么意思呢？他們說這是“失速速度”。經濟發展真的正在放緩嗎？真實情況真是這樣嗎？或者，也許實體經濟——也就是我們生活和勞作其間的那種經濟形態，而不是華爾街大佬和華盛頓政客們炮制出來的那種經濟——從來就沒有真正復蘇過？

????我之所以這么問，是因為我堅信，過去幾年間，美國國內的經濟狀況從來就沒有在真正意義上復蘇過。

????2010年春，我警告過人們，要避開金融與政治溫床上定期釋放的煙幕彈和假消息。當時，我首次將美國的經濟疾患比做“輕度肺炎”（walking pneumonia）。

????我當時寫下的等式是：美國經濟=“輕度肺炎”。

????我強烈建議人們不要糾纏于每日、每周或甚至是每月的報告。后退一步，以季度、半年和年度為基礎來看待各種問題。我們需要稍作努力，從數據中剔除雜音，這樣才能把握事實：我們面前的經濟之路仍將是漫長而艱苦的。

????那時我們不怎么健康，現在的健康狀況也并沒有顯著的改善。為什么這么說呢？

????幾天前，我們收到了一份更談成、更完整的經濟報告，它是前一年GDP報告的修正版。但這些報告并未受到太多關注。

????如果沒有意識到或者不理解我們所患“輕度肺炎”的詳情，我們怎么能精確估量當前的形勢呢？不能。盡管前文提到的戰略家們和華盛頓的高人寧愿你依然被蒙在鼓里。

????就這一點而言，讓我們看看上周由經濟分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis）發布的一份報告。該報告強調了一個事實，即我們的衰退當時就程度甚深，并且，在我看來，迄今仍對我們具有重大影響：

????2007-2010年間，真實的GDP以年均0.3%的速度下降；而在此前發表的估測中，真實的GDP是以年均不到0.1%的速度在增長。從2007年第四財季到2011年第一財季，真實的GDP在以年均0.2%的速度下降；在此前發表的估測中，真實GDP則是在以年均0.2%的速度在增長。

????真實GDP的負增長對我來說只意味著一件事。盡管美國政府不斷開出強心劑，并由其得力干將本和蒂姆（指美聯儲主席本?伯南克和美國財長蒂姆?蓋特納——譯注）加以實施，我們也從未正式擺脫衰退。炮制所謂的回暖苗頭，V形復蘇和其他各種伎倆的人更關心的是你的選票、消費、購買高價股票和每日交易，而不是你的長期經濟福利。

????作為一個始終如一的樂觀主義者，請同時讓我與你分享上文提到的我 2010年3月那篇評論的結論：

????我們終會成功。我堅信這一點。也就是說，如同患有“輕度肺炎”的人一樣，我們需要精心照顧自己，而不是讓每天襲來的頭暈誘使我們對自己的健康狀況產生不切實際的樂觀情緒。

????請按此精神找到前進的方向，并廣為傳播“正確的經濟觀”（sense on cents，雙關語，既是華爾街流行的一句戲謔語，指對金錢的渴求，也暗指作者本人創辦的網站www.senseoncents.com——譯注）。

????拉里是華爾街資深人士，曾在第一波士頓（First Boston）、貝爾斯登（Bear Stearns）和聯合銀行（Union Bank）工作。他的博客請登錄http://www.senseoncents.com/。

????譯者：清遠

????A wide array of supposedly smart people are now informing us that the economy is slowing and may slip back into recession. The new phrase being used to describe our economic condition is 'stall speed.'

????Well how about that? Stall speed, they say. Is the economy truly slowing? Is it really? Or perhaps did the real economy -- the one in which we live and operate, not the one fabricated by Wall Street pundits and Washington politicians -- never truly rebound?

????I ask because I firmly believe that our domestic economy never truly rebounded in a meaningful fashion over the last few years.

????I cautioned people to avoid the regular smoke and mirrors emanating from our financial and political hotbeds in spring 2010 when I first equated our economic malady as akin to "walking pneumonia."

????I wrote then, U.S. Economy = "Walking Pneumonia":

????I strongly recommend that people not get caught up in the daily, weekly, or even monthly reports. Take a step back and look at things from a quarterly, semi-annually, and annual basis. Let's work a little harder to eliminate the noise in figures so we can grasp the fact that the economic road in front of us will remain long and hard.

????We were not healthier then and we are not meaningfully healthier now. How do we know?

????We received a more honest and complete economic reading a few days ago in the revisions to prior year's GDP reports. These reports received limited attention.

????How can we accurately measure our current condition if we do not appreciate and understand the depth of our 'walking pneumonia'? We can't, although the aforementioned strategists and Washington wizards would rather you not know that.

????On that note, let's look at the report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis last week highlighting the fact that our recession ran deeper then and, in my opinion, continues to significantly impact us now:

????For 2007-2010, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of less than 0.1 percent. From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2011, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent.

????Negative real GDP readings to me spell one thing. We have never officially gotten out of recession despite all the sugar highs produced by Uncle Sam and executed by his boys, Ben and Tim. Talk of green shoots, V-shaped recovery, and assorted other tricks were designed by those who are more interested in your vote, your spending, your purchasing overpriced securities, and your daily trading than your long term economic well being.

????As an eternal optimist, though, let me also share with you how I concluded my March 2010 commentary referenced above:

????We'll make it. I am fully confident. That said, much like those with 'walking pneumonia,' we need to take care of ourselves rather than allow the daily spin to trick us into believing we are healthier than we really are.

????Navigate accordingly and spread the 'sense on cents.'

????Larry is a Wall Street veteran, having worked at such banks as First Boston, Bear Stearns and Union Bank. He blogs at http://www.senseoncents.com/