????美國國會議員們計劃提高14.3萬億美元債務上限談判仍在進行，緊張氣氛席卷了整個華盛頓。雖然8月2日的最終期限越來越近，但談判仍未取得任何突破性進展，這一僵局使美國政府陷入信貸評級下調的危險處境。

????從各層面來看，評級下調對美國整體經濟都不是利好消息。其中備受關注的一點是它可能對消費者產生的影響：美國國債利率上揚將導致借貸成本提高，從住房按揭貸款到汽車和助學貸款，無一能夠幸免。美國經濟目前仍處于從深度衰退中慢慢復蘇的脆弱時期，這樣的沖擊可能將使美國重新陷入低迷。

????然而，輿論較少提及評級下調對各州可能產生的影響。

????上周，穆迪投資者服務公司(Moody's Investor Services)將馬里蘭、新墨西哥、南卡羅來納、田納西和弗吉尼亞這五個州置于可能下調評級的監控之下。這五個州仍在當前擁有卓越AAA信用評級的15個州之列。穆迪之所以這么做是因為這五個州相對來說更依賴于聯邦資金——不論是醫療補助，還是政府合同等，而提高債務上限的任何政策都可能涉及到削減開支。

????具有諷刺意味的是，這五個州中的大多數（南卡羅來納、田納西和弗吉尼亞）都被視為共和黨選區，絕大多數民眾都支持共和黨——而共和黨卻叫囂著要大幅削減預算，從醫療保健到社會保障金。南卡羅來納州之所以進入監控名單，是因為穆迪(MCO)將該州在聯邦合同和醫療補助金方面的脆弱不堪納入考量因素。而田納西州和弗吉尼亞州則是因為經濟狀況高度依賴聯邦政府。

????如果美國不能保住其AAA信用評級，穆迪表示將對五個州的情況逐一進行評估。但無論最終結果如何，穆迪的警告并不意味著當地政府官員無法使自己的財政狀況走上正軌。以弗吉尼亞為例，該州最近發布了連續第二年的預算盈余。聯邦政府有權印制鈔票，有權對促進就業和提振經濟的政策頒布施加壓力。但州政府與聯邦政府不同，它們歸根結底必須平衡好各自的預算。

????不少華爾街銀行業人士表示，他們仍認為美國可以避免違約。但誰也無法確定降低評級可能會帶來的總體影響——不論是對聯邦政府而言，還是對各州或各地而言。

????即使如此，各州評級下調的可能將進一步凸顯華盛頓削減成本和增加支出之間脆弱的平衡。標普(Standard and Poor's)曾表示，僅提高債務上限是不夠的。標普已發出警告，除非國會能為至少節約4萬億美元出臺“令人信服”的計劃，否則還會面臨降級的風險。然而，有人預計巨大的成本削減會對州政府和聯邦政府產生漣漪效應。

????詹尼資本市場公司(Janney Capital Markets)的分析師在周二發布的評論中告訴客戶：“……從整體上來看，如果聯邦支出驟減，那么信用評級為Aa、A及其他評級的各州也會象征性地面臨財政問題的挑戰。如果這些州注定逃不過降級的命運，那么許多其他州和其他國家也會遭遇相同的處境。”

????評級下調對穆迪負面觀察名單上的這五個州產生的短期影響可能微乎其微。喬治梅森大學公共政策學院（George Mason University's public policy school）的西奧納?羅賓?李斯圖金教授表示，借貸成本將會上升，但漲幅不應太過夸張。當前，美國州級預算赤字面臨重壓，幾乎不容出現任何紕漏。在這種情況下，每年的利息成本不可能導致債務違約。

????但從長遠來看，評級下調可能會曝光大家都不愿接受的一個事實——這些州過分依賴聯邦撥款。

????“同樣，如果不出臺削減聯邦政府赤字的重大計劃，那么政府債務的上限問題會加速評級下調的進程，由此給這五個州帶來的級聯效應會使投資者將關注投向此前暫時被擱置的結構性財政問題，比如職工退休金和醫療保健費用等問題。

????Tensions are boiling over in Washington as U.S. lawmakers negotiate a plan to raise the $14.3 trillion debt limit. With an Aug. 2 deadline fast approaching, the U.S. government is nowhere close to forging a deal -- an impasse that puts its impeccable triple-A rating at risk.

????A downgrade would be bad news for the overall economy on various levels. Much attention has focused on how it could impact consumers: Interest rates for U.S. Treasury bonds would rise, which would lead to higher borrowing costs for everything from home mortgages to car and school loans. And with a fragile economy still slowly recovering from a deep recession, such shocks to the market could send the U.S. back into a downturn.

????What has been less talked about is what a downgrade would mean to individual states.

????Last week, Moody's Investor Services placed Maryland, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia under watch for a possible downgrade. The five are among the 15 states currently with stellar triple-A credit ratings. Moody's placed the group of five under watch because of their relatively large exposure to federal funding – from Medicaid payments to government contracts and the like. And any deal to raise the debt ceiling will likely include spending cuts.

????Ironically enough, a majority of these states (South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia) are considered red states, where residents predominantly vote Republican – the party that's been urging budgetary cuts in everything from health care to Social Security. In listing South Carolina, Moody's (MCO) factored the state's vulnerability to federal contracts and Medicaid payments. In Tennessee and Virginia, the economies are heavily dependent on federal government jobs.

????The ratings agency says it would review the states on a case-by-case basis if the U.S. lost its triple-A rating. However things work out, the Moody's alert shouldn't be taken as a sign that local officials can't get its finances right. For instance, Virginia recently posted a budget surplus for the second consecutive year. And unlike the federal government -- which has the power to print money and pressures to enact policies that encourage employment and a strong economy -- virtually all states must balance their budgets.

????Many Wall Street bankers say they still believe a default would be avoided. However, it's less certain what the overall effects might be of a downgrade – either at the federal, state or local levels.

????If anything, the likelihood of downgrades at the state level underscores Washington's delicate balance between cost cutting and additional spending. Standard and Poor's has said that just raising the debt ceiling isn't enough. The country's credit rating might still be downgraded, the agency has warned, unless Congress comes up with a "credible" plan for at least $4 trillion in savings. And yet, some expect that too much cost cutting could cause a ripple effect across local and state governments.

????"… It is also symbolic of the bigger picture in that states and communities with Aa, A and other ratings will also be exposed to fiscal challenges should federal expenditures decline dramatically," analysts at Janney Capital Markets told clients in a note released Tuesday. "If the ratings of these states were to ultimately be downgraded, so too would the rating of many other states, as well as counties and communities."

????In the short-run, a downgrade for the five states that Moody's has listed could be minimal. Siona Robin Listokin, professor at George Mason University's public policy school, says borrowing costs would rise but this shouldn't be too dramatic. And while state budgets are under pressure these days and have little room for error, the annual interest costs aren't likely to tip them into default.

????But over time, a downgrade could put an unwanted spotlight on the fact that these states are overwhelmingly reliant on federal funding.

????"In the same way that the federal debt ceiling could speed up ratings downgrades without a major federal deficit reduction plan, the cascade effect to these five states could focus investor attention on structural financial difficulties that have been on the back burner for a time, like state employee pension and health care costs."