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押注日本有新招

押注日本有新招

Colin Barr 2011-07-26
如果你正在考慮押注日本,可以考慮一下新的、更容易的方式。

????本月,一支新的交易所交易基金,Maxis 日經(jīng)225指數(shù)基金(Maxis Nikkei 225 index fund)閃亮登場(chǎng),該基金與日本備受追捧的日經(jīng)225指數(shù)掛鉤,并已于七月上旬上市交易,交易代碼為NKY。

????This month marks the debut of an exchange-traded fund that tracks Japan's most widely followed stock index. The Maxis Nikkei 225 index fund, listed under ticker NKY, began trading last week.

已經(jīng)具備反彈的條件了嗎?

????日本這一世界第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體正在竭力走出三月地震和海嘯的陰影,該基金的上市為投資者提供了一個(gè)更便捷的方式來(lái)押注日本公司,因此吸引了不少眼球。這個(gè)消息對(duì)美國(guó)的重要性在于,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們正合什祈禱日本的強(qiáng)力復(fù)蘇將幫助美國(guó)避免再次陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

????值得關(guān)注的另一個(gè)原因是,該基金是目前新產(chǎn)品泛濫的市場(chǎng)中罕見(jiàn)的香草型交易所交易基金(ETF),這些新產(chǎn)品讓投資者能利用杠桿效應(yīng)押注首次公開(kāi)募股的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司——因?yàn)椋L(fēng)險(xiǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有說(shuō)的那么恐怖。

????“不能一直忽視日本,”P(pán)recidian投資公司的負(fù)責(zé)人之一斯圖爾德托馬斯說(shuō)。該公司主要致力于ETF基金的開(kāi)發(fā)。該公司的投資商們還推出了廣受歡迎的SPDR黃金股(SPDR Gold Shares )ETF基金產(chǎn)品,交易代碼為GLD。

????公允地說(shuō),日本的股票風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并未完全拖垮ETF基金投資者。交易代碼為EWJ的iShares 摩根士丹利資本國(guó)際日本指數(shù)(iShares MSCI Japan index)已有15年的歷史,其資產(chǎn)額已達(dá)80億美元。這是個(gè)不錯(cuò)的產(chǎn)品,它的費(fèi)用率與Maxis基金大致相當(dāng),每百美元管理資產(chǎn)的費(fèi)用約為50美分。與此類(lèi)似的還有比較冷門(mén)的智慧樹(shù)日本對(duì)沖股票基金(Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity fund),其交易代碼為DXJ。

????但別忘了,長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)忽略日本股票一直都是對(duì)的。過(guò)去的20年中,日本股票市值已經(jīng)跌去3/4。雖然過(guò)往業(yè)績(jī)并不能代表未來(lái)的表現(xiàn),可面對(duì)如此慘淡的歷史,人們很難視而不見(jiàn)。

????盡管如此,對(duì)于關(guān)注日本股票的人來(lái)說(shuō),日經(jīng)指數(shù)是個(gè)耳熟能詳?shù)拿郑旭R斯也希望自己的基金藉此在今后的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)能吸引一大批擁躉。他說(shuō),第一周,基金募集的資產(chǎn)總額就達(dá)到了7,500萬(wàn)美金。這在行業(yè)里是非常不錯(cuò)的成績(jī),因?yàn)槟壳俺涑庠撔袠I(yè)的是追蹤俄羅斯股指的合成ETF基金(吸引投資者的是,這些基金持有掉期合約,而非真正的股票)以及提供蒙古必配股票交易機(jī)會(huì)的基金。

????托馬斯還說(shuō),“一些剛上市的ETF基金因?yàn)槲覀冞@種良好的反饋情況會(huì)給予投資者一些好處”。

????過(guò)去的10年中,ETF基金的發(fā)展可謂是欣欣向榮。最近,其資產(chǎn)總值已經(jīng)超過(guò)1萬(wàn)億美元。投資者蜂擁至,原因是ETF產(chǎn)品(目前有1,300多個(gè))為投資者提供了以低成本投資一系列不同資產(chǎn)類(lèi)別和主題的機(jī)會(huì),這使得注重投資多樣化的投資者可以把雞蛋放在各種不同的籃子里。

????與此同時(shí),盡管日本在過(guò)去幾十年中一直處于低迷時(shí)期,而且其股市回報(bào)率也低得可憐,但它仍是世界上僅次于美國(guó)和中國(guó)的第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體,同時(shí)擁有全球第三大的股市(僅次于紐約和倫敦)。

????然而,由于牌照爭(zhēng)議,日經(jīng)225指數(shù)這一與道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)(Dow Jones Industrial Average)齊名的股指錯(cuò)過(guò)了ETF基金的大好時(shí)光。托馬斯說(shuō),兩年前三菱(Mitsubishi)曾與Precidian公司就此事進(jìn)行過(guò)接觸,此后,他們一直在與證券交易委員會(huì)(Securities and Exchange Commission )的官員合作,以推動(dòng)該基金上市。

????盡管日本經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)時(shí)間萎靡不振,但由于策略師們最近對(duì)于日本的股市十分看好,因此此次上市可謂是恰逢其時(shí)。高盛(Goldman Sachs)認(rèn)為,最近的事實(shí)明確顯示,日本公司的盈利情況要好于該國(guó)整體的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況,這也就意味著日本股市也將從中受益。

????“市場(chǎng)對(duì)于去年的公司盈利回升反應(yīng)平平”,三菱UFJ證券(Mitsubishi UFJ Securities)股權(quán)銷(xiāo)售執(zhí)行總監(jiān)格里高利?斯坦內(nèi)克說(shuō)。

????他認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)正逐步走向常態(tài),盡管意義優(yōu)先。除此之外,日本大型出口商的強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭【索尼(Sony, SNE),豐田(Toyota, TM)以及本田(Honda,HMC)】以及美元對(duì)日元匯率的下跌將進(jìn)一步為日本股市帶來(lái)利好消息。

????“我是既樂(lè)觀又謹(jǐn)慎,”斯坦內(nèi)克說(shuō)。如果你也有同感,而且對(duì)這個(gè)不大可能有圓滿結(jié)局的故事仍抱有希望,NKY可能是個(gè)不錯(cuò)的選擇。

????The launch is noteworthy because it gives investors an easy way to wager on corporate Japan at a time when the world's third-biggest economy is trying to bounce back from March's devastating earthquake and tsunami. That story is important here because economists are crossing their fingers that a robust recovery there will keep the United States from stumbling into a new downturn.

????It's also worth watching because it marks a rare plain vanilla ETF offering at a time when the industry is awash in new products enabling users to place leveraged bets on Internet initial public offerings, for instance – because hey, those aren't nearly risky enough as it is.

????"You can't just keep ignoring Japan," says Stuart Thomas, a principal at Precidian, an exchange-traded funds developer whose backers brought you the popular SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded product that trades under GLD.

????To be fair, ETF buyers haven't really been stranded when it comes to Japanese equity exposure. The iShares MSCI Japan index, which trades under EWJ, has been around for 15 years and has gathered $8 billion in assets. It's a fine product whose expense ratio, at about 50 cents for every hundred dollars in assets under management, is in line with the Maxis fund. There is also the less popular Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity fund that trades under DXJ.

????And let's not forget that ignoring Japan has been a pretty good idea for quite a long time. Japanese stocks have lost three-quarters of their value over the past 20 years, and while past performance is no guarantee of future results it is sort of hard to turn a blind eye to a track record that sorry.

????Be that as it may, the Nikkei is the household name for those watching Japanese stocks, which gives Thomas hope that his fund will over time attract a substantial following. He says the fund gathered $75 million in assets in its first week. That is a standout response in an industry characterized increasingly by synthetic ETFs tracking Russia (charmingly they hold swaps, not actual stocks) and funds offering the must-have of all must-haves, exposure to Mongolia.

????"Some of the startup ETFs would give one of their appendages for the sort of response we have had," Thomas says.

????The ETF industry has boomed over the past decade, recently passing $1 trillion in assets. Investors have flooded into the sector because exchange-traded products – there are more than 1,300 by now by one count -- offer a low-cost way to gain exposure to a wide range of asset classes and themes, enabling the diversification-minded saver to put eggs in lots of different baskets.

????Meanwhile Japan, despite its well publicized lost decades and pathetic equity market returns, remains the third-biggest economy on the planet, after the United States and China, and the home of the world's third-biggest stock market (after New York and London).

????Yet the Nikkei 225, the Japanese equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has sat out the ETF boom, thanks to licensing disputes. Thomas says Mitsubishi approached Precidian two years ago and the sides have been working together and with regulators at the Securities and Exchange Commission since to bring the fund to market.

????The timing is good because despite Japan's long-running malaise, strategists have been talking up Japanese stocks lately. Goldman Sachs contends Japanese stocks could benefit from a syndrome all too evident on these shores recently: corporate earnings aren't anywhere near as sorry as the state of the economy.

????"The profit rebound last year wasn't recognized by the market," says Gregory Stanek, executive director of equity sales at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

????He believes the economy is returning to normal, for what that's worth. What's more, the strength of the nation's big exporters (from Sony (SNE) and Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC) on down) and the probable depreciation of the dollar against the yen could further aid Japanese stocks.

????"I'm cautiously optimistic," Stanek says. If you share his sentiment and like buying into an unlikely resurrection story, NKY could be the way to play it.

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