????把美國比成日本似乎是有點過頭。確實，兩國的文化、民眾和官方對金融泡沫破滅的反應都存在著巨大的差異，美國在這些方面可能更占優(yōu)一些。

????然而不可否認的是，兩個民族之間的確有著共同點，一是債臺高筑，二是每當國家急需改革時，政治體系便陷入僵局。

????在日本，政界領導更替頻繁的同時卻從未給社會帶來任何改變，這也是日本國債攀升，經(jīng)濟萎縮的結癥所在。在美國，連續(xù)30多年的政府大肆揮霍導致國家債臺高筑，其間，兩黨其實都有機會扭轉局面，但是沒有一家政黨能夠有所作為，哪怕只是往前邁一小步。

????情急之下，茶黨（Tea Partiers）和他們的傀儡共和黨現(xiàn)在要求國家來個180度大轉彎，主張在不增加稅賦的情況下大刀闊斧地削減開支。宛如一個人在夢醒時分，突然發(fā)現(xiàn)自己已是大腹便便，唯一能想到的減肥出路就是砍掉膝蓋以下部分。

????這是典型三歲孩童的做法。然而，大部分選民還認為這是一條美好的“出路”。難道除了悲劇沒有別的收場了嗎？

????看看日本90年代泡沫破滅后的表現(xiàn)答案便一目了然，沒錯——但是也不會像比爾?格羅斯說的那樣悲壯。我們不會一夜之間一貧如洗，相反，我們會熬過一場又一場危機，然后貧窮會隨著時間的推移逐漸降臨，毫不留情，不可逆轉。

????“日本的歷史告訴我們，當經(jīng)濟萎靡不振并產(chǎn)生危機的時候，政治不作為的后果是十分嚴重的”，紐約州康寧市資產(chǎn)管理公司W(wǎng)averly Advisors的戰(zhàn)略師安德魯?巴伯說。

????考慮到證券市場的可能出現(xiàn)的情況，債券經(jīng)理人格魯斯也一改其以往輕松的語調(diào)轉而在最近變得語重心長。

????當降級評價來臨的時候，美國利率都會有小幅回升，這也將導致借貸成本的增加，并讓本已舉步維艱的經(jīng)濟復蘇變得更加步履蹣跚。如果美國只是損失了3A評級這塊金字招牌，“倒也可能只算是小刮小碰，還不至于到車毀人亡的地步”，券商Janney Capital Markets公司的戰(zhàn)略師蓋伊?樂巴斯稱。

????為什么？原因之一是因為美國的海外債權人，例如中國，天生就沒有那種鋌而走險的性格。畢竟他們也別無選擇？歐洲自身難保，中國閉關自守，澳大利亞、新西蘭和加拿大實力有限，無法承擔如此巨大的資金流。

????“對于全球投資者來說，除了美元以外，可供其選擇的替代品并不多”，樂巴斯說。“不是說他們想換就能換”。

????到目前為止，這是個好消息。但是再看看日本債券在過去幾十年當中的收益率（見右圖），就能發(fā)現(xiàn)，光解決證券市場的動蕩問題還不足以將經(jīng)濟拉回增長軌道或為今后的繁榮帶來大量就業(yè)機會。

????解決這個問題需要智慧，僅停留在減稅或恣意增加開支這一層面是遠遠不夠的。但是貌似兩黨目前都已是黔驢技窮。

????格魯斯稱通過改組經(jīng)濟、促進就業(yè)的代價是要花費64萬億美元，他的看法沒錯——但估計這樣不菲的議題很難博得華盛頓的歡心。然而，政黨們卻一直圍著債務上限這個毫無意義的問題團團轉。一旦該問題得不到妥善解決，美國將因此一蹶不振——即便這個問題在接下來幾周得到解決，其作用也是微乎其微的。

????這是一場毫無賺頭的賭局，然而華盛頓政治賭客們卻為此甘冒風險。不過，到今天為止，一切都已經(jīng)不足為奇了。

????The Japan comparison sounds like a stretch. Yes, there are vast differences in culture and demographics and the official response to collapsed financial bubbles, many of which may eventually play out in America's favor.

????But the thread the two nations undeniably share – along with an unhealthy heap of debt -- is a dangerous case of political gridlock at a time when reform is urgently needed.

????In Japan, governments come and go and nothing changes, which is why the country's debt load now dwarfs annual economic output. In the United States, we got lost in sea of borrowing over three decades of free spending, during which both parties have had their chance to move the rudder and neither has, even a little bit.

????In response, the Tea Partiers and their Republican puppets now demand we change course drastically, by slashing spending without allowing for any tax increases. It's like waking up one day, realizing you're overweight and deciding the way to fix that is to lop off your left leg below the knee.

????It isn't the sort of thing adults typically do. Yet this is the sort of proposal that is received nowadays as a "solution" by a substantial part of the electorate. Can this end any way but badly?

????A look at Japan's performance since its asset bubble collapsed in 1990 says no – though not in the spectacular way the Bill Grosses of the world often suggest. Instead we may muddle through crisis after crisis, slowly getting poorer not all at once but relentlessly, irreversibly, over time.

????"The history of Japan serves as testament to what can happen when the political response to a malaise or crisis is stalemate," says Andrew Barber, a strategist at investment adviser Waverly Advisors in Corning, N.Y.

????Consider what is likely to happen with the Treasury market, where bond manager Gross once promised a turkey shoot but lately has been using less colorful language.

????A downgrade, when it comes, is likely to modestly raise U.S. interest rates, raising borrowing costs and squeezing an already anemic recovery. Yet the loss of the America's gold-plated credit rating alone "would probably be a fender-bender rather than totaling the car," says Janney Capital Markets strategist Guy LeBas.

????Why? In part it's because our foreign creditors, led China, aren't the mighty flight risk they are often made out to be. Where, after all, are they going to go? Europe is on the verge of disaster, China is closed to outsiders and Australia, New Zealand and Canada are too small to accommodate massive fund flows.

????"There is not much of an alternative to the dollar for global investors," says LeBas. "It's not like they can just flip a switch and go."

????That's good news, as far as it goes. But as a look at Japan's bond yields over the past decades (see chart, right) shows, avoiding a bond market shock alone won't do much to get your economy back on track or create the jobs we need for greater prosperity.

????That's going to take actual ideas beyond tax cuts or, for that matter, unbridled spending. No one from either party seems to have any of those at the moment.

????Gross is correct that how to revamp the economy to create those jobs is the $64 trillion question – but that debate is most certainly not taking place in Washington. Instead we have a pointless game of debt ceiling chicken going that could permanently crimp U.S. growth if it ends badly – or accomplish nothing if it is resolved in the next couple weeks.

????That is not much reward for all the risk our Beltway betters are taking on, but by now it's hard to be surprised.