????三伏天到了，股市也多了很多悲觀的聲音。事實上，事情并沒有看上去那么糟。雖說現在市場仍然有可能重現“約翰?雅各布?拉斯各布時刻”【拉斯各布曾任杜邦公司和通用汽車公司的財務主管，后出資修建了紐約帝國大廈。上世紀20年代，他非常看好股市，1929年他在接受《婦女家庭雜志》（Ladies Home Journal）采訪時信心十足地鼓勵美國人全民炒股，并表示只要炒了股，人人都能致富。然而這篇文章發表后才兩個月，華爾街即宣告崩盤。——譯注】，但從本周的市場動向來看，眼下仍然有五條看好股市的理由。

1.交易曲線表明股市向好

????“技術流”的股市分析師往往三言兩語就能用術語把你繞得云山霧罩的，比如什么“棄嬰形態”（e the Abandoned Baby formation），一會兒又是什么“吊死鬼形態”（the Hanging Man）。你完全不必理會這些嚇人的術語，只需要理解一件事就好：雖說股市交易數據代表了所有股民的心理預期，不過許多對沖基金的交易員和經紀公司的策略師們往往會著重研究其中的一個特定數據——200日移動平均線。這樣做是有充分的理由的。如果廣域市場指數結結實實地掉到200日移動平均線以下，則標志著市場將長期走跌。不過只要市場位于200天移動平均線以上，那么一般來說就會出現牛市。6月份的交易就是在考驗紐交所綜指、納斯達克綜指和標普500指數是否能夠堅守200天移動平均線。市場通過了這次考驗，在6月底出現了回彈。上次市場跨到200日移動平均線以上時正好是在一年前，于是市場從9月到12月間呈現了一個大牛市。

2.我們以前也經歷過這種時期

????我們以前也經歷過和眼下十分類似的時期，那時泡沫剛剛破碎，股市損失慘重，經濟恢復曠日持久，似乎經濟永遠沒有再度起飛的一天。眼下的一切以乎都是當年的重演，只不過這次的受害者是房奴們，而不是短線投資人。還記得互聯網泡沫破裂后的那幾年都發生了什么吧。市場在2002年觸底，然后略有回升，在2003年夏天又陷入熊市。隨后股市在2003年底強勢反彈。2004和2005年的走勢也和2003年如出一轍。每次大盤都比以前漲了一點，最后每年都會產生8%到10%的收益。

????歷史是否還會重演？去年的股市走向和2003年大同小異，華爾街的某些分析師，包括巴克萊資本公司（Barclay's Capital）都提醒客戶，這種模式今年有望繼續下去。

3.股價正便宜

????可能你并不是那種通過預測市場模式來進行交易的投資人，那也無妨，咱們再來看看基本面。目前標普500指數企業的市值僅為過去一年收益的15倍，是1994年以來美國股市最便宜的時期。如果往前看，現在標普500指數企業的市值僅為2011年預期凈收入的13.6倍，因此眼下正是建倉的好時候。更何況市場已經知道了第一季度的業績，第二季度的業績也已大體明了，因為有些公司已經搶先匯報了業績，其中絕大公司的表現都優于預期。而從市盈率來看，現在的股價是自1985年末以來最低的。打個比方：如果你當時買了一只標普500指數基金的話，你現在就坐擁530%的收益了。

4.油價正在下降。

????本周美國的汽油價格為每加侖3.62美元，比去年同期貴了0.85美元，但仍比今年四月份油價最高的時候便宜了0.28美元。曾有專家預測，在美國獨立日（the Independence Day，7月4日——譯注）前后，油價或將突破每加侖5美元關口，但這種情況并沒出現，油價不升反降。汽油價格上漲會抑制消費性支出，反之，汽油價格下降則有利于促進消費支出。原油期貨一度在五月份爬升到114美元的高位，但自那時起至今已下跌了16%。另外，美國能源部（The Department of Energy）近日決定釋放3，064萬桶戰略儲備原油，目前對這些石油的競標剛剛結束。到本月月底，至少部分戰略儲備原油就會化身汽油，登陸美國的各加油站，使汽油價格繼續下降，進而刺激消費性支出。

5.消費需求正在上漲

????本月的宏觀經濟數據雖然依然不景氣，但其中也有一個亮點：消費信貸支出有所增長。這是2008年8月以來的第二次。如果人們刷信用卡刷得比前多了，這多多少少證明了他們對自己的財務情況有足夠的自信，因此可以貸上一點款去旅游，或者只是單純地在食品雜貨店刷卡多買一些東西。分析人士認為，這次消費信貸支出的上漲或許與五月份的高油價有關。不過如果縱向比較一下，你就會發現，僅就貨幣債務來看，消費者現在的處境要比前幾年好了一些。美聯儲（the Federal Reserve）指出，美國人均債務支出占可支配收入的百分比已經降至11.5%，這是16年來的最低水平，而且比2007年10月份創下13.9%的最高紀錄有了明顯的下降。

????說到底，當然眼下也有一些值得擔心的事【如債務限額、歐洲的債務違約，另外新一季的真人秀《學徒》（The Apprentice）也上映了】，但你仍不妨對股市保持一些信心。雖說股市和美國經濟沒有飛速恢復，但這并不代表以后股市也不會出現增長。眼下的低迷只是意味著經濟中終于沒有泡沫了。

????譯者：樸成奎

????The dog days of summer have brought with them a lot of whimpering about the stock market. The truth is, things aren't as bad as they seem. At the risk of having a John Jakob Raskob moment, especially in light of the action this week, here are five reasons to be optimistic about the stock market right now.

1. The trading charts say so.

????Technical analysis can quickly lead you into a rabbit hole of terminology like the Abandoned Baby formation or the Hanging Man. Feel free to ignore that stuff until you write your Wall Street thriller. You just need to understand one thing: while stock-trading data represents the sum of everyone's opinion on the market, many hedge fund traders and brokerage strategists study one piece of that data in particular—the 200-day moving average. For good reason. When the broad market indices fall firmly below the 200-day average, it signals an extended bearish period ahead. As long as the market is above it, things generally are biased to go higher. Trading in June was mostly an extended test of support at the 200-day moving average for the NYSE and Nasdaq composites as well as the S&P 500. The market passed that test, bouncing upward at the end of June. The last time we moved off the 200-day moving average was just under a year ago, when we had a great September to December bull run.

2. We've been through this before.

????A bubble that bursts, big losses in the stock market, and a long economic recovery that never seems to quite get off the ground. This isn't the first time we've seen that scenario, except the victims this time have been homeowners, not day traders. Recall what occurred in the years after the dotcom bubble burst. The market bottomed out in 2002, then recovered modestly before hitting the summer doldrums in 2003. But then stocks rallied strongly in the last quarter of that year. The market did the same in 2004. Then again in 2005. Each time was a step higher that ended up generating 8% to 10% gains each year.

????Could past be prologue? Certainly last year's stock market acted like 2003, and some analysts on Wall Street, including Barclay's Capital, are advising clients to expect the pattern to continue this year.

3. Stocks are cheap.

????Maybe you're not sold on market patterns as a predictor of future action. That's okay. Let's look at fundamentals instead. Right now, the companies in the S&P 500 are trading at just 15-times trailing-year earnings, the cheapest the market has been since 1994. Looking ahead, the S&P 500 is telling us stocks are even more of a bargain, trading at just 13.6 times 2011 expected net income. And that's with the market already knowing the first quarter's results and having a good sense of how the second quarter played out, since the vast majority of early reporting companies have beaten expectations. By the forward P/E measure, stocks are the cheapest now since the end of 1985. If you invested in an S&P 500 fund then, you'd be sitting on a 530% gain right now. Just saying.

4. Oil and gas prices are falling.

????At $3.62 a gallon nationally this week, gasoline is 85 cents a gallon pricier than it was a year ago. But compared to April, when the gallon price peaked this year, gas is 28 cents cheaper and well away from the $5 gas that pundits predicted would ruin our Independence Day. Just as rising gas prices hurt consumer spending, falling gas prices help. Oil futures have slid 16% since cresting at $114 a barrel in May. And guess what? The Department of Energy just finished accepting bids on the 30.64 million barrels of oil being released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. By the end of the month, at least some of that will be landing at filling stations and affecting gasoline prices where it really counts: in your wallet.

5. Consumer demand is growing.

????There was one bright spot in the otherwise gloomy economic data that started this month: Consumer credit spending increased for just the second time since August 2008. When people charge more on their credit cards, it is a small sign they feel good enough about their financial picture that they can take on a little more debt, commit to a vacation, or simply buy more at the grocery store. Critics contend that uptick could have been spurred by May's high gas prices. But take a broader look and you'll see consumers are in a better position now than they have been in years, as far as their monetary obligations go. According to the Federal Reserve, the percentage of debt service payments to disposable income has eased to 11.5%. That's the lowest level in 16 years and down notably from the peak of 13.9% in October 2007.

????The bottom line: Sure there are things to worry about (the debt ceiling, defaults in Europe, another season of The Apprentice), but keep some perspective. Just because the stock market and the economy aren't rushing at a breakneck pace doesn't mean there isn't growth ahead. It may just mean that, finally, we are starting to live in a bubble-free economy.