????我會不會被一個軟件取而代之？

????眾所周知，新數(shù)據(jù)分析產(chǎn)品 Quid 業(yè)已上市，它可以檢測特定行業(yè)哪些細(xì)分領(lǐng)域的創(chuàng)新時機(jī)已經(jīng)成熟，并向風(fēng)險投資家推薦最佳的投資機(jī)遇。由于這是我和我的同行所承擔(dān)的關(guān)鍵職責(zé)，一想到我可以把工作外包給別人（或者別的東西？），而且這個人不會把他的私人問題帶到辦公室，也不會喝掉最后一杯咖啡卻沒有續(xù)滿，我就有一種解脫的感覺。

????《風(fēng)險投資期刊》（Venture Capital Journal）刊文稱，Quid的形象可以設(shè)想如下：

????想象一下，把數(shù)據(jù)插入計算機(jī)中，比如一個細(xì)分領(lǐng)域內(nèi)數(shù)以千計企業(yè)的招聘趨勢和過去數(shù)輪融資情況的數(shù)據(jù)，然后軟件就會開始處理大量的數(shù)據(jù)、預(yù)測哪些領(lǐng)域尚未有創(chuàng)業(yè)者進(jìn)入，而投資時機(jī)已經(jīng)成熟。這樣，當(dāng)一名雄心勃勃的企業(yè)家懷揣著創(chuàng)業(yè)點子步入風(fēng)險投資公司的大門，打算追捧該算法預(yù)測的市場空白時，風(fēng)險投資家立馬就能做出判斷，是留心傾聽他的宏圖大略，還是低頭玩自己的 iPad。

????這樣一來，至少有一半造訪我辦公室的人不需要我費心接待了。iPad，我來啦。

????Quid 由肖恩?古爾力開發(fā)，他最初發(fā)明了一種技術(shù)，用以預(yù)測具有戰(zhàn)爭傾向的國家發(fā)生叛亂的時間。報道稱，古爾力“使用從手機(jī)采集的公眾信息，短信和來自媒體報道、非營利組織和聯(lián)合國的批評數(shù)據(jù)來以尋找叛亂的跡象。然后采用計算機(jī)程序運行統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，從中發(fā)現(xiàn)了戰(zhàn)爭的普遍規(guī)律。阿富汗、斯里蘭卡、哥倫比亞、盧旺達(dá)和秘魯都顯示了這些特征。”

????我喜歡這個比喻，用戰(zhàn)爭來比喻男性主導(dǎo)的風(fēng)險投資業(yè)簡直是完美無缺。戰(zhàn)爭偵測機(jī)器發(fā)明了瓦解競爭的王牌軟件，難道還有比這更好的嗎？或許填滿風(fēng)險資本的炮彈能算一個。

????Quid 軟件將武士精神應(yīng)用到數(shù)據(jù)分析上，搜集特定公司的“關(guān)鍵詞、專利和新聞提及次數(shù)來制作圖像，顯示企業(yè)之間的相互聯(lián)系。圖上的每一點代表一個公司。”秘密在于找到針眼，即圖上排列陣容的空白點，從而引導(dǎo)投資者找到大展拳腳的理想市場空間。

????我想象著自己像邪惡博士【美國電影《王牌大賤諜》（Austin Powers）中的反派人物——譯注】一樣坐在自己的椅子上，一邊吃著糖果，一邊逗弄著吉娃娃，而我的數(shù)據(jù)大軍突然之間替我發(fā)現(xiàn)了潛力巨大、尚待挖掘的企業(yè)。那感覺真是妙不可言！

????風(fēng)險投資行業(yè)通常由觀察和直覺說了算，這種想要依賴軟件的想法非常有意思，但也伴隨著爭議。當(dāng)然，歷史無數(shù)次地證明，人類自身的分析能力遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無法令人滿意。大多數(shù)人（即便是徹頭徹尾的武士）都很難拋開偏見和個人觀點，清楚無誤地看待數(shù)據(jù)。許多行業(yè)，即便是那些以前將本能視為成功關(guān)鍵的行業(yè)，都逐漸認(rèn)識到信息終將戰(zhàn)勝勇氣的硬道理。奧克蘭運動家隊和波士頓紅襪隊基于這一理念認(rèn)定自己必須依賴所謂的棒球數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析法，而不是夾著煙卷的球探，來組建理想的球隊。

????另一方面，經(jīng)驗和本能并非一無是處。盡管摘掉有色眼鏡，數(shù)據(jù)就能引導(dǎo)人們找到顯而易見的規(guī)律；但是有些人擁有第六感，他們看待或解讀數(shù)據(jù)的方式與眾不同，這些人是無可替代的。盡管棒球數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析法有自身的優(yōu)勢，但是奧克蘭運動家隊在很長的時間并未贏得世界職業(yè)棒球大賽。

????那么Quid是否會走向消亡？好消息是從Quid獲取分析結(jié)果并不需要支付附帶權(quán)益。壞消息是它無法將我和我的同行們從努力工作以求生計的苦海中解脫出來。那些不得不和風(fēng)險投資家打交道的人可能要失望了，因為他們認(rèn)識到風(fēng)投家可能無法完全被軟件所替代。但是在風(fēng)投行業(yè)打拼了這么久之后，我堅信這個行業(yè)的贏家必須能夠?qū)?shù)據(jù)分析和直覺結(jié)合起來，同時還需要一點運氣。

????好了，不說了，繼續(xù)工作。

????Lisa Suennen是 Psilos Group的聯(lián)席創(chuàng)始人和管理層成員。Psilos Group是以醫(yī)療為核心的風(fēng)險投資公司，管理超過5.77億美元的資產(chǎn)。

????Can I be replaced by a piece of software?

????Apparently there is a new data analysis product called Quid that is able to detect what sectors in a given industry are ripe for innovation, and direct venture capitalists toward the best opportunities. Since that is a key function of what me and my colleagues do, it is a relief to think that I can outsource it to someone (something?) who won't bring their personal issues to the office or drink the last of the coffee without replacing the pot.

????According to Venture Capital Journal, you can visualize Quid as follows:

????But imagine plugging data into a computer, such as hiring trends and past rounds of funding for thousands of companies in a sector, and then having software that crunches the numbers and predicts what areas are untapped by startups and ripe for investment opportunities. That way, when a gung-ho entrepreneur walks in a firm's door with a startup idea that goes after the market sector predicted by the algorithm, a VC knows whether to listen to the pitch, or play on the iPad while the entrepreneur talks.

????Guess I won't have to expend all that extra energy paying attention to at least half of those who visit my office. iPad, here I come.

????Quid was developed by Sean Gourley, who originally invented the technology to predict insurgency in war-prone nations. Gourley is reported to "have used public information culled from cell phones, texting and attack data from media reports, nonprofit organizations and the United Nations to look for signatures of insurgency. He ran his statistics through a computer program and discovered universal patterns of war. The characteristics looked the same across Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Columbia, Rwanda and Peru."

????I like the war metaphor, as it is perfect for the male-dominated business of venture capital. What better than a war-detection machine to identify the killer app to destroy the competition? Venture capital in a nutshell (artillery shell?).

????So applying that warrior spirit to data, Quid amasses company-specific "key words, patents and press mentions to create a graph that shows how the companies are connected. Each dot on the graph represents a company." The trick is to find the eye of the needle—the spots on the graph where there are breaks in the ranks, leading an investor to the ideal marketplace in which to do battle.

????I have a vision of sitting back on my perch like Dr. Evil, eating bon bons and petting a Chihuahua while my squadrons of data bots root out insurgent companies laying in wait to explode onto the market with a bang. Awesome.

????The idea of relying on software where observation and intuition traditionally rule is an interesting concept associated with some controversy. Certainly it has been proven time and again that the human capacity for analysis leaves a lot to be desired. It is too difficult for most people (even bad-ass warrior types) to separate their biases and personal filters from data such that they can see it clearly. Many industries, even those that have historically been known as ones where instinct is key to success, have learned the hard way that information wins out in a battle against gut feel. The Oakland A's and Boston Red Sox have made a mission out of this idea, relying on so-called Sabermetrics, instead of cigar-chomping scouts, to craft the ideal baseball team.

????On the other hand, there is something to be said for experience and instinct. While data can lead you to patterns that would be obvious if you could remove your self-colored glasses, it cannot replace that sixth sense that some people have that lets them see data in a way no one else could or would interpret it. Sabermetrics has its advantages, but the A's haven't won the World Series in a really long time.

????So wither Quid? The good news is that it will not demand carried interest in exchange for its insight. The bad news is that it will probably not be able to free my colleagues or me entirely from the drudgery of working for a living. I can hear the disappointment as those forced to interact with VCs realize that they are probably not going to be completely replaced by software after all. But having done this for a while, I have no doubt that the spoils of war in venture investing are won through a combination of data analysis, intuition and good old-fashioned luck.

????Alas, back to work.

????Lisa Suennen is a co-founder and Managing Member of Psilos Group, a healthcare-focused venture capital firm with over $577 million under management.