????科技股是否又泛起了泡沫？在今年的大部分時(shí)間里，關(guān)于這個(gè)問題的爭論都很火爆，直到最近幾周才略有降溫。不過別擔(dān)心，它只是放了個(gè)暑假，今年秋天還會(huì)塵囂再起。

????社交游戲公司Zynga不久前向美國證監(jiān)會(huì)提交了IPO招股計(jì)劃書，讓世界得以一窺這家游戲新銳的財(cái)務(wù)狀況。簡要地說，這家社交游戲公司的營收入為5.97億美元，凈利潤為9，000萬美元。除非它的增長顯著減緩，否則今年Zynga的營收入將輕松突破10億美元大關(guān)。相比之下，傳統(tǒng)游戲巨頭電子藝界公司（Electronic Arts）今年的營收入有望達(dá)到40億美元，由此可見Zynga的增長前景有多廣闊。

????不過Zynga并不是一個(gè)十全十美的IPO選手。它的營業(yè)利潤起伏不定，而且還存在著過度依賴Facebook的問題。但目前為止，它仍是今年上市的網(wǎng)絡(luò)初創(chuàng)公司中最穩(wěn)健的一家。如果橫向比較一下，團(tuán)購網(wǎng)站Groupon存在的種種隱患，Zynga一樣也不沾邊。有業(yè)內(nèi)人士甚至將Zynga稱為“反Groupon”。Zynga的營業(yè)收入會(huì)流入公司里，而不是被領(lǐng)導(dǎo)們?nèi)M(jìn)自己的腰包。現(xiàn)在Zynga已經(jīng)坐擁10億美元的現(xiàn)金。更令人印象深刻的是，Zynga從2007年秋天就開始產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流量。2010年Zynga的現(xiàn)金流是3.26億美元，而單單是上個(gè)季度，Zynga的現(xiàn)金流就達(dá)到了1.03億美元。因此，Zynga是一家運(yùn)營良好、財(cái)務(wù)健康的公司。

????不過現(xiàn)在Zynga仍然面臨著一個(gè)大問題——承銷商和投資者會(huì)為它IPO給出一個(gè)怎樣的估值。初步報(bào)道顯示Zynga的估值在100億美元。如果Zynga肯按這個(gè)市值掛牌上市，把錢留給投資者去賺，那就再好不過了，不過這種情形并不會(huì)發(fā)生。社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)LinkedIn本財(cái)年的營收入預(yù)計(jì)在4.2億美元左右，但在掛牌交易的第一天，市值就達(dá)到90億美元。按照這種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)計(jì)算，Zynga上市時(shí)的市值可能會(huì)飆升至200億美元以上。

????Zynga不太可能在美國勞動(dòng)節(jié)（每年九月的第一個(gè)星期一——譯注）之前上市，因?yàn)槠甙嗽路萃顿Y人們都在度假，這時(shí)的IPO市場(chǎng)過于沉悶。不過如果Zynga真的上市了，它的估值會(huì)讓我們直觀地感受到科技IPO泡沫已經(jīng)膨脹到多大了。此外承銷商們也有推動(dòng)Zynga的IPO大獲成功的動(dòng)力，因?yàn)閆ynga的IPO會(huì)給IPO市場(chǎng)加溫，這樣市場(chǎng)就充分做好了迎接Facebook IPO隆重登場(chǎng)的準(zhǔn)備。

????事實(shí)上，華爾街早在幾個(gè)月前就開始為Facebook的IPO鋪路了。先是“中國的Facebook”人人網(wǎng)赴美IPO，隨后是商務(wù)化社交網(wǎng)站LinkedIn的上市。現(xiàn)在又是Zynga——而且Zynga的大多數(shù)游戲都是為Facebook這個(gè)社交平臺(tái)打造的。

????不過人人網(wǎng)和LinkedIn的表現(xiàn)都差強(qiáng)人意。人人網(wǎng)的股價(jià)在上市首日飆升至24美元，然而到6月24日已跌至6.23美元。LinkedIn的股價(jià)在上市首日高達(dá)122美元，隨后卻跌至60美元。這給關(guān)于當(dāng)下是否存在科技泡沫的討論澆了一盆冷水。人人和LinkedIn的股價(jià)下跌，說明了即便Web2.0初創(chuàng)公司讓投資者有些頭腦發(fā)昏，他們也會(huì)很快恢復(fù)清醒。

????但是Zynga卻不一樣，它沒有之前這幾家公司的缺點(diǎn)。它的財(cái)務(wù)健康和增長潛力很可能激發(fā)投資者的投機(jī)性買入，甚至有可能產(chǎn)生溢出效應(yīng)，拉動(dòng)其他網(wǎng)絡(luò)股上漲。事實(shí)上這一點(diǎn)已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。上周五，就在Zynga遞交招股計(jì)劃書后，LinkedIn的股價(jià)出現(xiàn)反彈，差不多回升了6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。人人網(wǎng)也上漲了5%，其他最近上市的網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司各自上漲了5%到10%不等。音樂流媒體服務(wù)公司潘多拉（Pandora）更是足足上漲了12個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

????這些都為Facebook IPO的重磅登場(chǎng)鋪平了道路。如果Facebook的招股計(jì)劃書也像Zynga的一樣健康，沒有亮起很多危險(xiǎn)信號(hào)，那么可能整個(gè)市場(chǎng)都會(huì)為之瘋狂。人們會(huì)對(duì)初創(chuàng)公司的創(chuàng)始人們大獻(xiàn)諛詞，而像合廣投資（Union Square Ventures）和安德森霍洛維茨公司（Andreessen-Horowitz）這些最早資助Facebook的風(fēng)投機(jī)構(gòu)的形象也會(huì)變得光輝起來。屆時(shí)市場(chǎng)并不會(huì)重演1999年的悲劇，但它離理性市場(chǎng)又遠(yuǎn)了幾步，離集體瘋狂又近了幾步。

????當(dāng)然，我們也有理由相信市場(chǎng)或許并不會(huì)出現(xiàn)狂熱。首先宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)前景依然陰云密布，科技界仍有可能遭受凄風(fēng)苦雨；其次投資者也有可能堅(jiān)持給予Zynga一個(gè)理性的估值。但是考慮到市場(chǎng)對(duì)熱門網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的需求處于被壓抑的狀態(tài)，因此第二點(diǎn)發(fā)生的可能性不大。按照當(dāng)前的趨勢(shì)來看，Zynga的IPO必將受到熱炒。這對(duì)Zynga和Facebook來說都是大好事，但對(duì)于股市整體來說卻未必是福。

????譯者:樸成奎

????The debate that has raged for most of the year over whether we're in a new tech bubble has grown quiet in recent weeks. But don't worry, it's just taken the summer off. It will be back this fall.

????That much seems clear now that Zynga filed its IPO prospectus and given the world a peek at its financials. To recap, the social gaming company had revenue of $597 million and a net profit of $90 million. Unless its growth slows dramatically, Zynga's revenue will easily top $1 billion this year. Contrast that with traditional gaming giant Electronic Arts (ERTS), which is expected to see $4 billion in revenue this year, and you get an idea of Zynga's promise.

????Zynga isn't the perfect IPO candidate – operating margins have been erratic, and there's the issue of its dependence on Facebook – but it's by far the strongest web startup to file this year. It has none of the red flags that plagued Groupon's prospectus. In fact some are calling it the anti-Groupon. Proceeds from Zynga's offering will go to the company, not insiders. Yet the company has $1 billion in cash. Even more impressive, it's been generating cash since the fall of 2007: $326 million in 2010 and $103 million last quarter alone. This is a well-run, financially healthy company.

????The big remaining question for Zynga is how underwriters and investors value its IPO. Initial reports valued the company at $10 billion. It would be very considerate of Zynga to list at that price and leave money on the table, but it's not going to happen. Remember that LinkedIn, which is expected to make $420 million this fiscal year, was worth $9 billion on its first day of trading. By that measure, Zynga could debut and see its value rise above $20 billion.

????Zynga is unlikely to debut before Labor Day. With investors on vacation in July and August, the IPO market is too sleepy. But when Zynga does list, its valuation will measure just how big the tech IPO bubble is getting. And underwriters have an incentive to make Zynga's IPO a success: The market is being orchestrated perfectly for a big Facebook IPO.

????In fact, Wall Street has been priming the IPO pipeline for a Facebook IPO for months. First, there was RenRen (RENN), the so-called Facebook of China. Then followed LinkedIn (LNKD), a niche social network focused on professionals. Now comes Zynga, with its games built largely for the social platform that is Facebook.

????But RenRen and LinkedIn have stumbled. RenRen rose as high as $24 on its first day and sank as low as $6.23 on June 24. LinkedIn rose as high as $122 on its first day then dropped as low as $60. Those declines poured cold water on talk of a tech bubble, suggesting that if investors were willing to lose their heads over web 2.0 startups, they'd come to their senses soon enough.

????But Zynga is different. It doesn't have the weakness of those earlier IPOs. Its financial health and promise of growth could, perversely, spur speculative buying that could spill over into other web stocks. In fact, this is already happening. On Friday, after Zynga filed its prospectus, LinkedIn rallied, rising as much as 6%. RenRen rose 5%, while other recent web IPOs also rose between 5% and 10%. Pandora (P) rose 12%.

????All of this would set the stage for a spectacular IPO for Facebook. And if Facebook's prospectus, like Zynga's, doesn't hold many red flags, things could get crazy. There will be adulatory profiles of startup founders and VC firms who first backed them – firms like Union Square Ventures and Andreessen-Horowitz. It won't be 1999 all over again, but it will be a few steps away from a rational market and toward a mania mindset.

????Of course, there are reasons why a mania might not come. There remain clouds on the economic horizon that could rain on the tech parade, or investors could simply insist on a reasonable valuation from Zynga. But given the pent-up demand for hot web stocks, that's unlikely to happen. Zynga is on track to have a red-hot offering. That will be very good for Zynga and Facebook, but it may not be so good for the stock market at large.