????上上周五，CNBC電視頻道主播拉里?庫(kù)德羅在談及日本大地震時(shí)不慎失言，冒出了一句事后看來(lái)極不應(yīng)該的話：“此次(災(zāi)難導(dǎo)致的)死亡人數(shù)看來(lái)要比(災(zāi)難帶來(lái)的)經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊嚴(yán)重得多，對(duì)此我們應(yīng)該感到慶幸。”這番被視為極度缺乏同情心的言論一經(jīng)播出，輿論嘩然，雖然他緊接著說(shuō)的是“當(dāng)然，如此高的死亡人數(shù)確實(shí)讓人悲慟。”

????在這個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿論影響力不容忽視的Twitter時(shí)代，他很快就被迫致歉。如果當(dāng)時(shí)他說(shuō)話更謹(jǐn)慎一些，這些逢迎附會(huì)、自以為是的同情心就不會(huì)有機(jī)會(huì)，但他的話的確揭露了一個(gè)投資的真相。那就是，優(yōu)秀的投資者絕不會(huì)讓情感——無(wú)論是積極的，還是消極的——左右他們買入、賣出或持有的決定。言歸正傳：隨著日經(jīng)指數(shù)（Nikkei）在大地震后直線下跌——盡管上周有一個(gè)交易日反彈近6%，眼下是精明的投資者入市并買入的時(shí)機(jī)嗎？

????曾長(zhǎng)期擔(dān)任摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）策略師、現(xiàn)為對(duì)沖基金投資者的巴騰?比格斯于上周二晚些時(shí)候表示，他認(rèn)為導(dǎo)致日經(jīng)指數(shù)下跌16%的恐慌性拋盤(pán)是“明顯的過(guò)度反應(yīng)”，現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候抓住這把下落的尖刀了。

????Jefferies全球固定收益策略主管戴維?澤爾沃斯在給投資者的報(bào)告中也表達(dá)了相似的觀點(diǎn)，“我不認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在有很多日本政策制定者（或市場(chǎng)參與者）都相信日本的‘長(zhǎng)期’前景如此黯淡，以至于股票估值應(yīng)該只比2003年年中或 2009年年初略高幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。”言下之意：現(xiàn)在是買入的時(shí)候了。

????如果你在此次大地震前的幾周或幾個(gè)月已開(kāi)始逐步買入日本股票，現(xiàn)在肯定懊惱不已。我注意到在震前，有些機(jī)構(gòu)分析師已在郵件中透露出對(duì)日本股市的樂(lè)觀情緒，最近的是在2月末。但如果你認(rèn)為這些觀點(diǎn)有道理——即當(dāng)時(shí)我們對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法已到了悲觀得不能再悲觀的地步，如果你愿意押注、相信此次大災(zāi)難帶來(lái)的核輻射及其他影響不會(huì)像很多人認(rèn)為的那樣嚴(yán)重，那么現(xiàn)在就是更好的買入時(shí)機(jī)。

????[想想漏油事件剛曝光后的英國(guó)石油（BP）股票——十年來(lái)最佳的買入機(jī)會(huì)。別跟我胡扯說(shuō)什么支持英國(guó)石油、所以買它的股票。二級(jí)市場(chǎng)買入講的是戰(zhàn)術(shù)，而不是支持或不支持一家公司和一個(gè)行業(yè)。如果你不明白這一點(diǎn)，趁早金盆洗手，安安心心坐在搖椅上看你的電視吧。]

????而且，在這一片黯然中也仍有一絲光亮。日本教授東浩紀(jì)在上周四的《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》（New York Times）上就寫(xiě)到了日本迅速上升的民族自豪感，相信日本有能力應(yīng)對(duì)這次空前的大災(zāi)難。或許日本走出此次大災(zāi)難后，會(huì)比近幾十年來(lái)更為自信？

????不過(guò)，現(xiàn)在仍很難講，不是嗎？但預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)總是很難。我的老朋友、CNNMoney的保羅?莫尼卡最近撰寫(xiě)的一篇專欄文章通過(guò)一分為二的分析，對(duì)此有精準(zhǔn)闡述：機(jī)構(gòu)投資者不能(就下一步做什么)達(dá)成一致。但這就是關(guān)鍵所在，不是么？如果每個(gè)人的觀點(diǎn)都一致，就很難掙錢。

????誰(shuí)知道這場(chǎng)核災(zāi)難會(huì)如何演變？日本經(jīng)濟(jì)真的能走出這又一次重創(chuàng)嗎？但正是在市場(chǎng)急速轉(zhuǎn)向的時(shí)候，才是真正賺錢或虧錢的時(shí)候。我？我已經(jīng)入市了。

????Speaking about the earthquake in Japan on CNBC last Friday, anchor Larry Kudlow put his foot quite deeply into his mouth. "The human toll here looks to be much worse than the economic toll and we can be grateful for that," he said. He was quickly skewered for what was seen as a profound lack of compassion, despite the fact that the next words out of his mouth were, "and the human toll is a tragedy, we know that."

????This being the age of the angry mob on Twitter, he was soon forced to issue an apology. And while he should have known better than provide an opportunity for obsequious and self-righteous compassion, his remark did point to a fundamental truth of investing. That is, the best investors don't let emotions -- positive or negative -- color their decision to buy, sell, or hold. To the point: with the Nikkei in free fall after the devastating earthquake -- notwithstanding the one-day bounce of nearly 6% this week -- is it time for savvy investors to step in and buy?

????Barton Biggs, the long-time Morgan Stanley strategist turned hedge fund investor, said late Tuesday that he thought the panic selling that sent the Nikkei down 16% was "a gross overreaction" and that it was time to try and catch that falling knife.

????David Zervos, head of global fixed income strategy at Jefferies, wrote of a similar sentiment in a note to investors. "I do not believe that there are many Japanese policy makers (or market participants) who believe the 'long term' prospects for Japan are so dim that we should be at equity valuations which are only a few percentage points from the levels reached in mid 2003 or early 2009," he said. Translation: it's time to buy something.

????You'd hate to be the guy who was warming up to Japanese stocks in the weeks or months before this earthquake. I'd noticed several instances of optimism about Japanese stocks in missives from institutional analysts as recently as late February. But if the arguments made sense to you then -- that we'd reached the so-called moment of maximum pessimism about the Japanese economy -- and you're willing to take the bet that the fallout, both nuclear and otherwise, from recent events isn't going to be as severe as many appear to believe, then now is an even better time to buy.

????(Think of BP (BP) stock right after the spill -- best buying opportunity in a decade. And don't give me any guff about supporting BP by buying its shares. Secondary market buying is about tactics, not support or lack thereof for a company or industry. If you don't get that, hang up your investing spurs, settle into your rocking chair, and watch the show.)

????There might even be a silver lining to this whole mess. In Thursday's New York Times, Hiroki Azuma, a Japanese professor, writes of a burgeoning national pride in Japan's ability to deal with this greatest of disasters. Might the country emerge from it more confident than it has been in recent decades?

????Still, it's a tough call to make, isn't it? But predicting the future always has been. A recent on-the-one-hand, but on-the-other column by my old buddy, CNNMoney's Paul La Monica, showed that precisely: institutional investors can't reach consensus about what to do next. But that's the point, isn't it? It's pretty hard to make money when everyone agrees on something.

????Who knows what will happen with the unfolding nuclear disaster? Or whether Japan's economy really can bounce back from yet another punch in the gut. But it's at sharp turns in the market where the real money is made or lost. Me? I'm in.