從棉花到煤炭：10種大宗商品價格大幅波動
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棉花 ????繼2月17日達到140年來最高位之后，棉花價格可能已經企穩。不過，這對于服裝生產商也許鮮有慰藉作用，即便他們仍要應付蕭條的消費境況，但也不得不漲價。較之去年，棉花價格仍上漲了130%，這也給新興市場帶來了不良影響。 ????上周，印度服裝出口促進委員會（AEPC）宣布，就出口量而言，日漸飆升的棉花價格可能會令印度今年的服裝出口至少萎縮15%。 車打奶酪 ????多種因素已造成奶酪價格在短期內進一步飆升。首先，牛飼料（玉米、燕麥）成本升高已對終端產品造成影響。 ????其次，誘人的奶牛屠宰價格似乎鼓勵人們更多地將奶牛從牛群中篩選出來。 ????第三，由于不利的天氣狀況給牧場造成負面影響，占全球乳制品貿易量40%的澳大利亞和新西蘭已經下調了2011年牛奶產量預測。 可可 ????在重重政治沖突之下，科特迪瓦（舊稱“象牙海岸”）總統阿拉薩內?瓦塔拉已將該國的可可出口禁令延長至2011年3月15日。這個西非國家是世界最大的可可生產國，約占全球供應量的40%。 ????因此，可可價格達到32年來最高位，這將令今年春天的部分復活節禮品籃非常昂貴。 布倫特原油 ????由于俄克拉荷馬州庫欣市的石油供應過剩已使西德克薩斯中質原油（WTI）指數落后于其他輕質、低硫等級石油，因此（至少就目前而言）布倫特原油似乎比WTI更能反映全球石油供需情況。 ????由于利比亞國內騷亂，加之人們擔心這種狀況會蔓延，市場對今后的石油供應感到擔憂，因此布倫特原油價格現在已達到2008年9月以來的最高水平。目前，中東地區生產的石油占全球石油產量57%。 谷物 ????美國農業部數據顯示，由于生產商無法種植足夠的谷物以緊跟消耗步伐，全球谷物庫存量目前處于37年來最低水平。 ????上一季的全球谷物收獲量為21.8億公噸，同比下降2.5%。據美國農業部估算，今年全球將消耗22.4億公噸谷物。 銅 ????對于全球經濟增長而言，銅價疲軟并不是一個好兆頭。倫敦金屬交易所記錄的銅庫存量目前達到2010年8月以來最高水平，而上海期貨交易所監測的庫存水平近期則跳升至9個月以來最高位，達到161,062噸。 黃金 ????關于這種黃澄澄金屬的泡沫破滅了嗎？也許還沒有。 ????通常，當實際利率為正且不斷上升之時，黃金的表現卻遜人一籌——這正是今年1月份黃金走勢為20年來同月最差的原因。 ????但當地緣政治風險升級時，黃金卻表現良好，因此這種避險資產在過去5天內上漲了4%。 小麥 ????中東-北非地區買下了全球谷物裝運量的32%，而埃及是全球最大的小麥出口國。這一地區的暴力沖突和騷亂將抑制對軟性商品的需求，因此玉米、小麥和大豆的價格上周均出現下跌。 ????就供應面而言，印度于上周宣布，由于該國本季谷物產量可能創下歷史最高水平，印度可能允許小麥出口。 天然氣 ????由于天然氣需求旺季接近尾聲，天然氣價格目前徘徊在4美元/千立方英尺以下。今年的冬季極寒使美國天然氣庫存量較5年平均水平下降3%，但交易員充滿信心，認為一旦下降季節結束，供應量將重新飆升。 ????必和必拓（BHP Billiton）近期從Chesapeake Energy公司購得阿肯色州Fayetteville頁巖氣資產，計劃使該頁巖氣項目的產量比目前水平提高兩倍，此舉證實了上述觀點。 煤炭 ????中國、美國和印度是煤炭消耗量最大的三個國家。印度和中國的經濟增長已經逐漸放緩，我們認為美國也將緊隨其后。 ????煤炭價格今年至今下跌9%，就這個領先指標來看，美國經濟不容樂觀。 |
Cotton ????Cotton prices may have stabilized after hitting a 140-year high on February 17th. That may be little consolation to apparel producers, who have been forced to raise prices even as they're still coping with the sluggish consumer. Cotton is still up 130% over the last year, which is also hurting emerging markets. ????Last week the Apparel Exports Promotions Council of India announced soaring cotton prices are likely to crimp India's apparel exports by at least 15% in volume terms this year. Cheddar cheese ????Several factors have rocketed the price of cheese higher in short order. First, higher feed costs for cattle (corn, oats) have made their way to the end product. ????Second, attractive slaughter cow prices appear to be encouraging much heavier culling of cows from the herd. ????And third, Australia and New Zealand, which account for 40% of the world's dairy trade, have scaled back milk production forecasts for 2011 due to adverse weather negatively impacting pastures. Cocoa ????Alassan Ouattara, President of the Ivory Coast, has extended the country's ban on cocoa exports until March 15, 2011 amid political strife. The West African nation is the world's largest cocoa producer, accounting for about 40% of the global supply. ????As a result, cocoa prices are at a 32-year high, which should make for some very expensive Easter baskets this spring. Brent Crude Oil ????It appears that (at least for now) Brent crude is more indicative of global supply and demand for oil than is West Texas Intermediate, as the glut of supply in Cushing, OK has caused WTI to lag other light, sweet grades. ????Brent crude is now at its highest level since September 2008 as violence in Libya and the fear of contagion has the market worried about future supply. Currently, the Middle East produces 57% of the world's oil. Corn ????The US Department of Agriculture data shows that global corn inventories are at a 37-year low as producers are unable to grow enough grain to keep pace with consumption. ????The global grain harvest for the past season was 2.18 billion metric tons, down 2.5% year-over-year. The USDA estimates that the world will consume 2.24 billion metric tons of corn this year. Copper ????Weakness in copper is not a good sign for global growth. Copper stockpiles tallied by the London Metal Exchange are at the highest level since August 2010, while inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange recently jumped to a nine-month high of 161,062 tons. Gold ????Has the bubble burst for the yellow metal? Perhaps not yet. ????Gold underperforms when real interest rates are positive and rising -- that's why gold had its worst January in twenty years. ????However, gold performs well when geopolitical risks escalate, which is why this safe haven is up 4% in the last five days. Wheat ????The Middle East-North Africa region buys 32% of global grain shipments and Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer. Violence and riots in the area will curb demand for soft commodities, which is why corn, wheat, and soy were down last week. ????On the supply side, India announced last week that it may permit wheat exports as the country may harvest a record crop this season. Natural Gas ????As the peak demand season for natural gas comes to a close, natural gas is stuck under $4/Mcf. An extreme winter has US gas inventories 3% below the 5-year average, yet traders are confident that supply will come roaring back once the drawdown season ends. ????Supporting this, BHP Billiton plans to triple output from current levels in the Fayetteville shale in Arkansas, the assets that it recently acquired from Chesapeake Energy. Coal ????China, the US, and India are the top three consumers of coal. Growth is already slowing in India and China, and we don't think that the US is far behind. ????Coal, which is down 9% year-to-date, is not a bullish leading indicator for economic strength in the US. |
