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眼下的商業新聞報道出現了一種非常奇怪的現象。 作為世界上最具價值的企業，蘋果公司攫取了全球智能手機市場94%的利潤，超過了2014年的85%。然而，很多報道似乎都在說蘋果要完了，特別是在迫切追求點擊量的博主筆下。 一邊是亮眼業績，一邊是唱衰論調，這確實有點怪異，難怪一些蘋果死忠叫嚷著讓失敗論者拿出真憑實據。雙方論戰談不上公平，但看起來很有趣。例如下面這些： 蘋果登頂 “2015年10月份，蘋果在業績發布電話會議上稱過去一年是‘史上最成功的一年’。隨后公布了業績，講了個動聽的故事，然后華爾街基本上已經認定蘋果是資本主義之神。他們都錯了?！薄狟ryan Clark，The Next Web “蘋果沒說錯。按收入和利潤這兩項客觀指標衡量，2015財年確實是蘋果歷史上最成功的一年。我覺得你可以從其他方面來定義這樣的說法，比如增長率或者股價漲幅，但收入和利潤是相當公平的衡量標準。我沒看出‘華爾街基本上已經認定蘋果是資本主義之神’。我只注意到，公布業績當天蘋果的股價僅上漲了2%，隨后回落到了公布業績前的水平。”——John Gruber，Daring Fireball 前景黯淡 “蘋果公布的季度收入和利潤都有顯著增長，動力來自iPhone的熱銷。但這樣的業績帶來了一個問了千萬次的問題，作為世界上價值最高的公司，蘋果的增長勢頭如何保持？”——Katie Benner，《紐約時報》 “請原諒我武斷……蘋果對高端市場的壟斷越發鞏固，形成了惡性循環，也確保了對高端市場的無限控制。從應用的角度來說，新應用以及應用更新總會先推出iOS版本，這就意味著重視這些應用或更新的人會去購買iPhone，也就意味著今后的新應用以及應用更新還會先推出iOS版本。從零部件的角度而言，蘋果逐漸成為唯一有實力購買最好零部件的手機廠商，巨大的采購規模則確保了他們能率先獲得新型零部件。這當然會進一步加強蘋果對高端領域的掌控，結果只能是蘋果在零部件制造商面前變得更加強勢?！薄狟en Thompson，Stratechery 蒂姆?庫克必須下臺 “是這樣，蒂姆?庫克也許真的是人中龍鳳，但要領導蘋果這個全球最大企業，也是最領先的科技公司之一，庫克似乎并不適合。”——Jay Somaney, Forbes.com “你能意識到蘋果之所以能成為全球最大企業以及技術龍頭之一，庫克的貢獻是功不可沒的，對吧？史蒂夫?喬布斯已經去世四年了，去世前的幾年里也一直疾病纏身。沒意識到還是根本不在乎？這才是福布斯撰稿人群體被問了千萬次的問題（Waffle House餐廳油炸廚師的培訓設備也一樣）。”——The Macalope，Macworld 蘋果注定失敗的理論其實一直揮之不去。20世紀90年代末倒是差點成真，但這種論調為什么現在依然盛行，而且是在蘋果如日中天的情況下，這是個謎。是有人操縱市場嗎？是因為即將到來的嚴格對比嗎？是做空者的陰謀？還是新記者發現在唱衰蘋果公司是提高瀏覽量的法寶呢？ 實際上，關于蘋果的未來，你說不清，我也拿不準。(財富中文網) 譯者：Charlie 審校：夏林 |
Something very strange is going on in business journalism. The world’s most valuable company just gobbled up94% of global smartphone profits, up from 85% a year ago. Yet much of the media’s coverage of Apple—especially in the click-hungry corners of blogosphere—is pursuing a narrative that says Apple is doomed. It’s a bizarre disconnect, and it has roused some of Apple’s fiercest defenders to declare open season on the doomsayers. It’s not exactly a fair fight, but it’s fun to watch. Here’s a sampling: Peak Apple “In Oct,2015,Apple’s latest earnings call announced its ‘most successful year ever.’ The numbers were reported, the stories were spun and Wall Street basically anointed Apple the god of capitalism. They’re all wrong. — Bryan Clark, The Next Web. “Apple wasn’t wrong—fiscal 2015 was Apple’s most successful year ever, by the objective measures of both revenue and profit. I suppose you can decide to define ‘most successful year ever’ in terms of something else, like percentage growth or stock price gains, but revenue and profit are pretty fair measures. I missed it where ‘Wall Street basically anointed Apple the god of capitalism’. All I noticed was that Apple’s stock price went up about 2% the day after earnings were announced and has since fallen back to where it was before Q4 earnings were announced.” —John Gruber, Daring Fireball. The Outlook is Muted “Apple turned in another quarter of enviable revenue and profit growth, fueled by sales of the iPhone. But the results raised a perennial question for the world’s most valuable company: How can it keep its growth streak alive?” —Katie Benner, New York Times. “Forgive me in advance for this rant… Apple’s increasing monopoly on the high-end of the market is creating a virtuous cycle that ensures they will own the high-end indefinitely. From an app perspective, new and updated apps launch first on iOS, which means people who care buy iPhones, which means future new and updated apps launch first on iOS. From a component perspective, Apple is increasingly the only manufacturer that can even afford to buy the best components, and they have massive scale which ensures they get first dibs on what is new. This, of course, further solidifies Apple’s hold on the high end, which only strengthens their position with component manufacturers further.”—Ben Thompson,Stratechery. Tim Cook Has To Go “Look, Tim Cook might be an absolute Mahatma Gandhi of a human being but he does not seem to be the right person to lead the biggest and one of the most technological savvy companies in the world.” —Jay Somaney, Forbes.com. “You do realize that it got to be the biggest and one of the most savvy in large part due to and under Cook’s leadership, right? Steve Jobs died four years ago and was sick for years prior to that. Didn’t realize or didn’t care? Such is the perennial question with the Forbes contributor network (and Waffle House fry cook training facility).” —The Macalope, Macworld. The Apple-is-doomed theory has always been with us. In the late 1990s it came very close to being right. Why it persists today, in the face of the evidence to contrary, is a mystery to me. Is it market manipulation? The upcoming tough compare? A conspiracy of short sellers? A new generation of reporters discovering page-view gold in contrarian Apple stories? As to the future of Apple, your guess is as good as mine actually. |
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