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????美國股市正在經(jīng)歷許多投資者“號稱”期盼已久的那種回調(diào)嗎？（盡管他們私下里也希望這次情況會有所不同）還是說，這只是由于人們對埃博拉下意識畏懼、對油價下跌困惑引起的短期市場波動？ ????顯然，目前要下定論為時尚早，但有一點可以肯定，那就是：過去幾天的市場狀況，已經(jīng)使得IPO（首次公開發(fā)行）熱度大減。雖然IPO的管道尚未完全阻斷，但敞口肯定已有所收窄。 ????IPO咨詢公司Class V Group的萊斯利?普夫朗認(rèn)為，如果市場持續(xù)波動，不會有太多公司繼續(xù)推進(jìn)上市，除非是（阿里巴巴那樣的）異類企業(yè)。穩(wěn)定性不足，估值憂慮過多，且IPO折扣率升高。另外，當(dāng)市場觸底時，投資者往往會減持較小型公司（如初上市公司）的股票，以籌集現(xiàn)金，支撐自身在較大企業(yè)的核心倉位。 ????普夫朗表示：“如果市場波動太大，未來IPO折扣率將高于此前通行的15％，否則，銀行和投資者對于買賣IPO股份會變得非常緊張。不過，需要注意的是，那些不斷準(zhǔn)備著，并且預(yù)備在市場重開時率先上市的公司，將受益最大?；蛟S其估值不是最理想，但它們能多次進(jìn)入市場吸金，并且給了新投資者更多的流動機(jī)會?！?/p> ????另一個開放性的問題是，市場大幅回調(diào)會對眾多優(yōu)質(zhì)pre-IPO企業(yè)（那些已經(jīng)以高估值進(jìn)行了多輪股權(quán)融資的企業(yè)）造成何種影響？ ????換言之，如果上述企業(yè)需要延遲上市，同時又沒有妥善管理好自身燒錢的速度，那誰將挺身而出，參與下一輪投資（即便企業(yè)估值有所下降）？今年早些時候，公開市場對“軟件即服務(wù)”類企業(yè)的估值大降，各共同基金、對沖基金迅速停止了支持此類公司，直到公開市場穩(wěn)定后才重返該領(lǐng)域。 ????可見，如果出現(xiàn)更廣泛的市場低迷，共同基金、對沖基金將全面退出所有pre-IPO領(lǐng)域。而鑒于大多數(shù)此類企業(yè)已經(jīng)完成了傳統(tǒng)的后期風(fēng)險投資，我們會看到，一波意料之外的并購熱潮可能即將來臨。（財富中文網(wǎng)） |
????So, is this it? Is this the market correction that many investors have been publicly expecting, while privately hoping things are really different this time? Or is it just short-term volatility related to knee-jerk Ebola fears and confusion over falling oil prices. ????Obviously it’s too early to draw conclusions, except for this: What we’ve seen over the past few days has put a major chill in the IPO pipeline. Not quite cold enough to block it completely, but certainly the opening has narrowed. ????Leslie Pfrang, a principal with IPO advisory Class V Group, says that she can’t imagine too many new issuers moving forward if the volatility persists, save for large outliers (i.e., sub-Alibabas). Too little stability, too many valuation worries and widened IPO discounts. Plus, when markets bottom, investors tend to sell down positions in smaller holdings (i.e., recent IPO issuers) in order to raise cash for buttressing core positions in larger companies. ????“If the market is too volatile, you can’t just project the standard 15% IPO discount going forward, because banks and investors are going to be nervous about bringing it to market or buying it,” she says. “What’s important to keep an eye on, though, is that the companies that keep preparing and are ready to go first when the market reopens are able to benefit the most. Maybe they don’t get the best valuation, but they are able to access the market multiple times for capital and it gives new investors more liquidity opportunities.” ????Another open question is what a major correction would do to the legion of pre-IPO “unicorns,” which have raised huge equity rounds at high valuations. ????Namely, if they need to delay IPOs and haven’t properly managed burn rates, who is going to step up for the next round (even if it comes with a valuation haircut)? When public SaaS valuations tanked earlier this year, the mutual/hedge fund community stopped back such companies on a dime, only returning once the public markets stabilized. ????If this is a broader-based downturn, I could see them walking away from all sorts of sectors. And given that most of these companies already worked through the traditional later-stage VC class, it would seem that an unexpected M&A rush could be on the horizon. |
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