個(gè)人電腦銷量預(yù)測(cè)的骯臟內(nèi)幕
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????據(jù)AppleInsider網(wǎng)站的丹尼爾?伊蘭?迪爾格上周六報(bào)道，蘋(píng)果（Apple）在上上周指出，IDC與高德納（Gartner）給出的Mac電腦在美國(guó)的銷售數(shù)字有誤。這兩家市場(chǎng)調(diào)研公司稱，Mac電腦在美銷售出現(xiàn)下滑，而蘋(píng)果收益電話會(huì)議的文字記錄顯示，公司稱Mac電腦在美銷售增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，“增幅高達(dá)兩位數(shù)”。 ????這不是高德納和IDC第一次被人發(fā)現(xiàn)方法論錯(cuò)誤。2010年11月，Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪烏驚訝的發(fā)現(xiàn)，兩者的移動(dòng)電話銷量數(shù)據(jù)差額高達(dá)7700萬(wàn)臺(tái)，而德迪烏著名的圖表正是基于該數(shù)據(jù)繪制。 ????高德納稱：“我們的方法論在不斷更新和完善，它是我們最寶貴的財(cái)富之一。”該公司繼續(xù)極為含糊其辭的描述道： ????“一旦目標(biāo)設(shè)定，分析師會(huì)通過(guò)向IT用戶、技術(shù)提供商和投資者、商務(wù)人士、學(xué)者和其他研究人員發(fā)放正式或非正式的調(diào)查來(lái)收集信息。”[摘自“高德納內(nèi)部研究”] ????而據(jù)一名IDC公司的前研究員稱，銷售預(yù)測(cè)比上面說(shuō)的更不可靠。該研究員曾于20世紀(jì)90年代末至21世紀(jì)初在IDC工作了八年。 ????我發(fā)布了一篇關(guān)于“移動(dòng)電話銷量數(shù)據(jù)相差7700萬(wàn)臺(tái)”的文章后，這名研究員給我透露了一些IDC公司如何進(jìn)行銷量預(yù)測(cè)的細(xì)節(jié)。 ????出于法律方面的考慮，這位線人要求匿名。他的講述如下： ????“菲利普，我曾在IDC公司從事銷量預(yù)測(cè)，所以對(duì)其中的骯臟內(nèi)幕有所了解。1998年第3季度，我對(duì)公司的方法論進(jìn)行了一番深入挖掘。盡管我做的調(diào)查是有關(guān)個(gè)人電腦銷量預(yù)測(cè)，但手機(jī)銷量預(yù)測(cè)的方法論是一樣的。 ” ????“在大部分季度，團(tuán)隊(duì)先以原始設(shè)備制造商的銷量指引為基礎(chǔ)，并根據(jù)國(guó)家的不同，按國(guó)別進(jìn)行交叉檢驗(yàn)。然而，對(duì)于美國(guó)市場(chǎng)，我們只對(duì)供應(yīng)商的銷量指引做些系統(tǒng)性的調(diào)整就算完事。比如，我們知道許多Mac電腦是通過(guò)邁阿密轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)到拉丁美洲的。因此，我們將美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的Mac電腦銷量減去一定比例（當(dāng)然，蘋(píng)果從來(lái)沒(méi)有幫過(guò)忙；事實(shí)上該公司甚至反對(duì)這種做法，稱實(shí)情并非如此），由此得出來(lái)的銷量就被安在幾個(gè)拉美國(guó)家頭上。這有效地模擬了市場(chǎng)狀況，但缺乏底層數(shù)據(jù)支持。” ????“因此，在1998年第3季度，我分析了‘瓶頸’，即供應(yīng)鏈中渠道窄到足以得到最終數(shù)字的部分。當(dāng)時(shí)，“瓶頸”是操作系統(tǒng)、處理器、顯卡和硬盤(pán)驅(qū)動(dòng)器。我記得，我發(fā)現(xiàn)多出了2000萬(wàn)臺(tái)處理器銷量。而當(dāng)時(shí)的市場(chǎng)容量大概是1億臺(tái)，所以差額高達(dá)20%。” ????“隨后發(fā)生的事情簡(jiǎn)直堪稱蒙混過(guò)關(guān)的典范。Tracker小組的組長(zhǎng)想出了辦法，讓所有多出的處理器銷量變得名正言順（比如多處理器服務(wù)器、庫(kù)存、投機(jī)炒作等）。但多出的銷量強(qiáng)加到這些類目上會(huì)有大問(wèn)題，因?yàn)檫@將嚴(yán)重扭曲歷史趨勢(shì)。 ” ????“所以，最后就成了保留增速數(shù)據(jù)，別管實(shí)際數(shù)字。而即便增長(zhǎng)率數(shù)據(jù)其實(shí)也是瞎編。關(guān)鍵在于“其它”類目，每當(dāng)有平不了的數(shù)據(jù)就往“其它”里塞。平心而論，我們確實(shí)做了調(diào)查工作，四處打電話，參加白盒測(cè)試會(huì)議與聚會(huì)，試圖感受市場(chǎng)情況，但說(shuō)到底，整個(gè)過(guò)程并不靠譜。我曾告訴客戶他們能信任哪部分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，基本上也就是各大廠商的形狀因素和地區(qū)數(shù)據(jù)。其它數(shù)據(jù)都是垃圾。” ????“該行業(yè)本身意識(shí)到了這些問(wèn)題，但選擇了繼續(xù)瞎編，因?yàn)檫@太省事了。大多數(shù)供應(yīng)商自己統(tǒng)計(jì)了相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，但在公開(kāi)場(chǎng)合都使用IDC公司給出的數(shù)字。關(guān)鍵就在于，那些高管們獲得的薪酬是基于我們給出的銷售數(shù)字。這里頭還有其它一些把戲，不過(guò)這些下次再說(shuō)吧。” ????“問(wèn)題最終歸結(jié)為，這些預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)到底是那些為孤兒寡母理財(cái)?shù)耐顿Y經(jīng)理們進(jìn)行投資決策的依據(jù)，還是只是行業(yè)內(nèi)部自說(shuō)自話的產(chǎn)物，根本無(wú)足輕重？這個(gè)問(wèn)題一直沒(méi)有答案。” ????[注：在事先準(zhǔn)備的發(fā)言中，蘋(píng)果首席財(cái)務(wù)官盧卡?馬斯特利的原話是：“Mac銷量在許多國(guó)家實(shí)現(xiàn)了強(qiáng)勁的兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)，包括美國(guó)、加拿大、墨西哥、英國(guó)、德國(guó)、法國(guó)、澳大利亞、中國(guó)、印度以及中東。”這句話可以有不同的解釋。馬斯特利所說(shuō)的兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)，是指上述所有國(guó)家的Mac總銷量，還是指在以上各個(gè)國(guó)家的銷量？ ????蘋(píng)果發(fā)言人史蒂夫?道林本周一證實(shí)，Mac銷量在上述各市場(chǎng)都實(shí)現(xiàn)了兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)（即增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到10%或10%以上）。](財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) ????譯者：項(xiàng)航 |
????Apple called BS last week to the U.S. Mac sales numbers IDC and Gartner sent to clients two weeks earlier, AppleInsider‘s Daniel Eran Dilger reported Saturday. The two market research firms had sales falling. Apple had them growing by “strong double digits[s],” according to the earnings call transcript [see note below]. ????It’s not the first time Gartner and IDC have been caught with their methodological pants down. In November 2010 Asymco’s Horace Dediu was aghast to discover a 77 million unit discrepancy in their mobile phone data — data he depends on to draw his famous charts and graphs. ????“Our methodologies, which are continually updated and improved, are among our most valuable assets,” according to Gartner, which goes on to describe them in the vaguest possible terms: ????“Once an objective is set, analysts gather information through formal and informal surveys of IT users, technology providers and investors, business professionals, academicians and other researchers.” [From Inside Gartner Research] ????It’s even squishier than that, according to a former IDC researcher who spent eight years with the company in the late 1990s and early 2000s. ????After I posted a story about the 77 million missing phones, he described in some detail how IDC goes about estimating sales. ????According to my source, who for legal reasons asked that his name not be used, here’s how it worked: ????“Philip, I know something about this sausage-making process, as I used to do it for IDC. In 3Q98, I did a cross-section, an excavation, if you like, of our methodology, putting a crowbar to it and snapping it into fragments. It was the PC count, but the methodology is the same for phones. ????“In most quarters, the team starts with OEM guidance and, depending on the country, does some by-country cross-checking. However, for the US team, we just did some systematic adjustments to the vendor guidance and called it a day. For example, we knew that lots of Macs were transshipped from Miami to Latin America. So, we took some percentage of Macs (Apple, of course, never helped; in fact, even objected, saying it wasn’t so) and reallocated them from the US to a smattering of Latin countries, effectively modeling the market but with no low-level data. ????“So, in 3Q98, I analyzed the ‘choke points,’ those parts of the supply chain where the channel narrowed enough to get a definitive count. At the time, it was OS, processor, graphics, and hard drive. As I recall, I found 20 million processors with no homes. The market at the time was about 100 million, so this was a 20% discrepancy. ????“The process that ensued was a marvel of obfuscation. The leader of the Tracker team figured out a way to rationalize away all the extra units (e.g., multiprocessor servers, inventory, speculation, etc.). It was politically impossible to force the extra units on the regions because it would introduce gross distortions to the historical trends. ????“So, the mantra became, preserve the growth rates; to hell with the actual numbers. Even the growth rates are fiction. The fudge is in the “others” category, which is used as a plug to make the numbers work out. In fairness, we did do survey work, calling around, and attending white box conferences and venues to try to get a feel for that market, but in the end, the process was political. I used to tell customers which parts of the data they could trust, essentially the major vendors by form factor and region. The rest was garbage. ????“The industry itself was aware of these issues, but agreed to maintain the fiction because it was convenient. Most vendors kept their own numbers, but referred to IDC for public purposes. Thing is, real executives got real compensation based on our numbers. There were other games played, but that’s for another time. ????“The question always came down to, are these fiduciary numbers that investment managers charged with keeping money for widows and orphans rely on, or are they just inside baseball for the industry to squabble over and not all that important? That question has never been answered.” ????[Note: The language Apple CFO Luca Maestri used in his prepared remarks -- "We achieved strong double digit Mac growth across many countries, including the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the UK, Germany, France, Australia, China, India and the Middle-East" -- is open to interpretation. Does the growth rate apply to the set of countries listed, or to every element in the set? ????Apple spokesman Steve Dowling confirmed Monday that the growth was double digit (i.e. 10% or more) in each of those markets.] |
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