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????你不能將“華納”從“時(shí)代華納”（Time Warner， TWX-2.94%）中剔除，但顯然可以將“時(shí)代”掃地出門，而且還能從中賺一筆。

????周一上午，時(shí)代公司（Time Inc.，旗下雜志包括《財(cái)富》）這家備受尊崇的雜志發(fā)行商從時(shí)代華納分拆出來，開始在紐交所上市，交易代碼為TIME（TIME-0.77%）。不僅原先母公司的股東獲得了這家新公司的股票，而且時(shí)代華納也到手6億美元的一次性分紅，資金從時(shí)代公司近期通過債務(wù)融資募集的13億美元中支付。

????看漲時(shí)代公司的觀點(diǎn)是：多年來，這家公司基本上就是在充當(dāng)時(shí)代華納的搖錢樹，催生數(shù)億美元的利潤(rùn)，而又極少得以再投資于自身業(yè)務(wù)——印刷版雜志帶來的財(cái)源雖然日益萎縮，但好歹也算穩(wěn)定。既然如此，何苦大興數(shù)字改革撼動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀？而如今，依靠新的管理層，時(shí)代得以規(guī)劃自己的道路，而且已經(jīng)開始?jí)汛笞约旱木W(wǎng)絡(luò)財(cái)產(chǎn)（包括上周剛剛上線、聘請(qǐng)了十幾名新員工的全新Fortune網(wǎng)站）。簡(jiǎn)言之，創(chuàng)新將不再受到遏制。時(shí)代業(yè)已擁有足夠龐大的品牌資產(chǎn)，如今又得以發(fā)展品牌以滿足當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)需求。

????看跌時(shí)代公司的觀點(diǎn)是：時(shí)代也許并不知道該如何創(chuàng)新，或者至少不知道如何大規(guī)模創(chuàng)新。畢竟，聽了十多年“別在這上面花錢”的忠告，這方面的思維肌肉都已經(jīng)萎縮，再要扳上開關(guān)就頗為困難。那些嶄露頭角的數(shù)字人才要的是像Buzzfeed等公司首次公開募股前的股份，而不是幾近被榨干油水的時(shí)代公司的一筆期權(quán)。況且還有那筆新債務(wù)。雖算不上負(fù)債累累，但時(shí)代的確已在靈活性上不及新聞集團(tuán)（News Corp., NWSA -0.17%）這樣的對(duì)手，后者在去年分拆時(shí)不但沒有債務(wù)，而且還到手20億美元現(xiàn)金。

????比較務(wù)實(shí)的觀點(diǎn)是：一些人擔(dān)憂時(shí)代股價(jià)會(huì)在上市初期一落千丈。畢竟多年以來，時(shí)代華納股東都被告知，時(shí)代拖了集團(tuán)盈利的后腿。一旦新股票到手，他們難道不會(huì)立刻拋售？這樣，它就成了做空者的天堂。但時(shí)代股票在盤前交易中不跌反漲，意味著有兩個(gè)因素在起作用：（1）空方暫且按兵不動(dòng)，害怕假如時(shí)代成功拋售掉旗下一兩個(gè)最有價(jià)值資產(chǎn)，他們就會(huì)慘遭軋空。（2）時(shí)代公司的財(cái)務(wù)狀況仍然比傳說中好得多，就連抱著懷疑態(tài)度的人也想先觀察它獨(dú)立后前一兩個(gè)季度的業(yè)績(jī)，然后再說。

????寫到這里有必要強(qiáng)調(diào)一下，在這個(gè)話題上，筆者的視角不能算客觀。這些都是內(nèi)部觀察的結(jié)果。我和我的同事們似乎都只在一定時(shí)間內(nèi)持樂觀態(tài)度。這是一場(chǎng)為爭(zhēng)奪長(zhǎng)跑競(jìng)賽資格而展開的短跑沖刺。不妨將時(shí)代視為某種類型的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)，或至少是一場(chǎng)攜巨額品牌資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行的杠桿重啟。跟大多數(shù)初創(chuàng)企業(yè)一樣，失敗的幾率很高，但并非一定如此。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Alex

????You can’t take the Warner out of Time Warner TWX -2.94% , but apparently you can kick Time to the curb. And get paid in the process.

????Time Inc., the venerable magazine publisher whose titles include Fortune, this morning was spun out into an independent company by Time Warner and has begun trading on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker symbol TIME -0.77% . Not only do shareholders in the former parent get new Time Inc. stock, but Time Warner also received $600 million via a one-time dividend paid out of Time Inc.’s $1.3 billion in recently-issued debt.

????Here’s the bull case for Time Inc: For years, the company had basically served as a piggy-bank for Time Warner, generating hundreds of millions of dollars in profit that it rarely got to reinvest in its own business. Why rock the boat with new digital initiatives when the paper mags provided steady, if declining, treasure? Now Time Inc. gets to chart its own course with new management, and already has begun bulking up its Web properties (including this site, which launched just last week with more than a dozen new staffers). In short, innovation will no longer be stifled. Time Inc. already has plenty of brand equity, and now it actually gets to evolve the brands to meet the current market.

????Here’s the bear case: Time Inc. may not actually know how to innovate, or at least not how to do it at scale. After all, it’s pretty tough to flip the switch when those mental muscles have been atrophied after more than a decade of being told “No, don’t spend money on that.” The up-and-coming digital talent wants pre-IPO stock at places like Buzzfeed, not options in a maxed-out Time Inc. Plus, there is all that new debt. It’s not completely unwieldy, but certainly makes Time Inc. less nimble than a rival like News Corp., which received $2 billion in cash and zero debt when it was spun off NWSA -0.17% last year.

????Here’s the pragmatic case: There have been concerns that Time Inc. shares would sink like a stone in the early days. After all, Time Warner shareholders have been told for years that Time Inc. is a drag on earnings, so wouldn’t they want to dump fast when given the new shares? Short-seller paradise. But Time Inc. stock actually climbed in pre-market trading, suggesting two factors in play: (1) Shorts may be holding off, out of fear that they’d get squeezed if Time Inc. manages to sell off a crown jewel or two. (2) Time Inc. still does have much better financials than its reputation indicates, and even skeptics may be a bit curious to see a quarter or two of independent performance.

????This is where it’s worth emphasizing that I don’t come to this as an unbiased reporter. Instead, I’m on the inside looking out. My colleagues and I seem to share a sense of time-constrained optimism. It’s a sprint for the privilege of running the longer race. Consider Time Inc. a startup of sorts, or at least a leveraged reboot with an extraordinary amount of brand equity. Like most startups, there is a high probability of failure. But it is hardly predetermined.