風(fēng)投出售公司數(shù)量減少不必?fù)?dān)心
|
????美國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資協(xié)會(huì)（National Venture Capital Association）和湯森路透（Thomson Reuters）日前公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年風(fēng)投通過(guò)并購(gòu)方式只出售了388家公司。這是2009年以來(lái)的最低水平，較2012年下降了近23%。 ????聽(tīng)起來(lái)很糟糕。但事實(shí)或許并非如此。 ????IPO市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)強(qiáng)勁之時(shí)，比如就像2013年，風(fēng)投資本家們通常都不愿通過(guò)出售來(lái)退出勢(shì)頭最好的公司。當(dāng)然會(huì)有例外，比如輕博客Tumblr作價(jià)11億美元賣(mài)給了雅虎（Yahoo）。但大多數(shù)優(yōu)秀的公司要么IPO，申請(qǐng)IPO，要么預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)1、2年內(nèi)將進(jìn)行IPO（比如，AirBNB，Box，Dropbox，Square，Spotify，等等）。 ????這意味著大多數(shù)并購(gòu)標(biāo)的要么是中不溜的公司，以低于面值價(jià)格出售，要么是運(yùn)營(yíng)不善，以白菜價(jià)出售。為什么這些交易只有25-35%公布了交易額？這就是原因。沒(méi)人愿意公布投資（或收購(gòu)）一家公司的價(jià)錢(qián)可能還不如我已有七年車(chē)齡的豐田普瑞斯（Toyota Prius）。
????但如果風(fēng)投出售的公司數(shù)量少于過(guò)去多年，可能事實(shí)上意味著風(fēng)投的回報(bào)得到了提高。特別是，如果公布交易的平均交易額仍相對(duì)健康（在1.61億美元左右）。不然，就是我的反直覺(jué)中有什么漏洞？（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）??????????? |
????Venture capitalists sold only 388 companies via mergers or acquisitions last year, according to data released this morning by the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Reuters. It is the lowest such total since 2009, and nearly a 23% decline from 2012. ????Sounds pretty bad. But it probably isn't. ????When the IPO market is strong, as it was in 2013, venture capitalists are typically loathe to exit their best companies via trade sales. Sure there are exceptions -- Tumblr to Yahoo (YHOO) for $1.1 billion, for example -- but most of the upper crust either went public, filed to go public or is expecting to go public within the next year or two (think AirBNB, Box, Dropbox, Square, Spotify, etc.). ????What that means is that most of the M&A targets either are middling companies being dumped around par, or failed companies being sold for scrap. That's why only 25-35% of these deals ever have their values disclosed -- no one wants to publicize having funded (or bought) a company that is now worth less than my seven-year-old Toyota Prius. ????So if VCs are selling fewer companies than in years past, then it may actually mean the VCs are generating higher returns. Particularly if the average value of disclosed deals remains relatively healthy (which it was, at around $161 million). Or is there a flaw in my counterintuition?????? |
最新文章