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蘋果iPhone 5S的銷量到底是5C的幾倍

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年10月16日

蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
蘋果高端機型iPhone 5S的銷量到底比低端的5C多了多少?幾家市場調研公司對這個問題給出了不同的答案。有的說是2:1,有的說是3:1,另外一家公司說兩者的比例達到了4:1

????圖為2013年9月9日只10月14日iPhone 5S和iPhone 5C兩款手機的銷量對比圖。其中棗紅色的曲線為5S,黑色的曲線代表5C。數字來源:MixPanel

上圖為蘋果iPhone各型號手機的銷售占比圖。數字來源:CIRC

????iPhone 5S和5C上個月上市時,人們有一千個理由相信更先進的5S會比5C吸引到更多早期采用者。真實情況也的確如此,從首發日蘋果(Apple)零售店前的排隊情況看,iPhone 5S的購買者是5C的20倍之多。

????那么iPhone 5C的銷量后來有沒有起色?來自中國的一條流傳頗廣的報道指出,蘋果已將5C訂單削減一半,從每天30萬部減少到了15萬部。

????那么,蘋果高端機型iPhone 5S的銷量到底比低端的5C強了多少?本周一發布的兩篇報道給出了大相徑庭的數字。

????? 根據消費者情報研究機構Consumer Intelligence Research Parters(CIRP)的報道,美國市場5S和5C的銷售比大約為2比1。

????? 根據Mixpanel取自其監測應用的全球數據(不僅僅是美國),這個比例更靠近3比1。

????CIPR聯合創始人喬什?洛維茨向科技博客AllThingsD表示:“手機剛上市時,許多粉絲會一窩蜂地升級至旗艦機,但隨著時間推移,低價手機會開始搶占旗艦機的份額。所以我們預計接下來幾個月,5C在美國市場iPhone銷量中的比例會有所上升,不過5C在設計上的變化可能會影響到這一趨勢。iPhone 5C的潛在客戶同去年購買4S的人群不大一樣,和今年新上市的5S的購買人群也不同?!?/p>

????最新消息:現在情況更加復雜了,Localytics提供了第三組數據,取樣自10億部設備上的2萬多個應用程序。從中可看出,美國市場iPhone 5S和5C的銷售比約為2比1,而海外市場的比例約為4比1。具體數字如下(截至本周一):

????全球:

????72% (5s) vs. 28% (5c)

????美國:

????68% (5s) vs.32% (5c)

????美國以外:

????79% (5s) vs.21% (5c)(財富中文網)

????譯者:項航??

????When the iPhone 5S and 5C went on sale last month, there was every reason to suspect that the more advanced 5S would draw more early adopters to the Apple (AAPL) stores than the 5C. And indeed, by one launch-day line count, the iPhone 5S buyers outnumbered 5C buyers that first day by 20 to 1.

????Have iPhone 5C sales picked up since then? A widely circulated report out of China last week suggested that Apple had cut 5C production in half, from 300,000 units per day to 150,000.

????Now we have dueling reports on how much better the iPhone 5S is doing than the 5C.

????? According to Consumer Intelligence Research Parters, the 5S is outselling the 5C by roughly 2 to 1 in the U.S.

????? According to Mixpanel, which counts actions within apps from around the world, not just the U.S., the ratio is more like 3 to 1.

????"Over time, the lower-priced phones have tended to gain share versus the flagship phone, after the initial rush of dedicated upgraders to the newest device," CIRP co-founder Josh Lowitz told AllThingsD. "So we expect that the 5c will account for a higher percent of total U.S. iPhone sales in the coming months, but the design changes may alter that dynamic. The iPhone 5c may appeal to different buyers than the legacy 4S did last year, or the new 5s will this year."

????UPDATE: The plot thickens. Localytics, which says it samples more than 20,000 apps on a billion devices, offers a third set of statistics. They show the iPhone 5S outselling the iPhone 5C by three to one in U.S. and five to one in the rest of the world. The specific ratios (as of Monday):

????The World:

????72% (5s) to 28% (5c)

????US Only:

????68% (5s) to 32% (5c)

????Ex US:

????79% (5s) to 21% (5c)??

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