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黑莓私有化美夢難圓

Dan Primack 2013年08月13日

Dan Primack專注于報道交易和交易撮合者,從美國金融業(yè)到風險投資業(yè)均有涉及。此前,Dan是湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的自由編輯,推出了peHUB.com和peHUB Wire郵件服務(wù)。作為一名新聞工作者,Dan還曾在美國馬薩諸塞州羅克斯伯里經(jīng)營一份社區(qū)報紙。目前他居住在波士頓附近。
黑莓最近表態(tài),不排斥私有化。黑莓2008年估值達840億美元,如今一路狂跌到48億美元,看起來收購黑莓是筆很劃算的買賣。但它的收入正在以每年30%的驚人速度遞減,目前已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了幾億美元的虧損。黑莓現(xiàn)在就像一把快速下落的快刀,沒人敢出手接住它。

????根據(jù)路透社(Reuters)的報道,智能手機制造商黑莓(BlackBerry Inc.)如今開始“不排斥”私有化。太讓人開心了。另一條相關(guān)消息,我的小女兒也“不排斥”在下個生日時接受一匹小馬駒作為禮物。

????賬面上看,收購黑莓將是一筆很劃算的交易。考慮到黑莓自2008年起估價840億美元的市值一路狂跌到如今的48億美元(比年初下降了19%),這場交易可被看作一筆很劃算的買賣。更重要的是,黑莓仍掌握著充裕的現(xiàn)金流(上季度6.3億美元),而且完全沒有債務(wù)。

????此外,戰(zhàn)略競標者之間也不太可能產(chǎn)生競爭關(guān)系。很難想象銀湖投資集團(Silver Lake)和邁克爾?戴爾會在將戴爾公司(Dell Inc.)私有化之后,再花上約50億美元收購黑莓,而伊坎作為大股東的戴爾公司更可能充當賣家而非買家的角色。坊間傳聞聯(lián)想(Lenovo)和宏達(HTC)也一直對黑莓感興趣,但是很難想象這起交易能通過加拿大監(jiān)管部門的許可(更不用說與美國政府部門達成賣主協(xié)議)。也有人認為,蘋果(Apple)、谷歌(Google)和微軟(Microsoft)這樣的公司也許希望部分收購黑莓——比如它的安全網(wǎng)絡(luò)資產(chǎn)或?qū)@接谢召徟c只出售一部分大不相同。而且,就戰(zhàn)略利益而言,即使按照如今的低股價,部分收購黑莓可能仍然得不償失。

????所以回到收購會談這個話題——也許根本沒有收購會談呢?如果沒有哪家公司正在積極主動地敲門殺價,黑莓也只是表示了這種“不排除”的態(tài)度。

????討價還價交易的反面就像是一把下落的小刀,很難想象會有很多私募股權(quán)公司想對一家下滑如此之快的公司伸出雙手。黑莓的收入以每年30%的驚人速度遞減,這家曾經(jīng)利潤頗豐的公司已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了數(shù)億美元的虧損。

????如今的黑莓對蘋果和三星(Samsung)而言,就像Palm曾經(jīng)對于黑莓的意義一樣。也就是說,它已經(jīng)成為了消費者眼中的過氣產(chǎn)品,而這似乎與產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量無關(guān)。私募股權(quán)公司善于改善流行產(chǎn)品的管理方式和財務(wù)狀況,增加其銷量,但并不善于讓一個大型品牌重生。

????此外,大型私募股權(quán)公司對于尖端技術(shù)的專業(yè)知識十分有限(想想有幾家公司認真考慮過收購戴爾吧)。

????所以很抱歉,我的女兒艾瑪,今年11月你不能收到小馬駒的禮物了。但你不是唯一一個無法得償所愿的人……(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:嚴匡正

????Smartphone maker BlackBerry Inc. (BBRY) is "open" to going private, according to Reuters. How delightful. In related news, my toddler is "open" to getting a pony for her next birthday.

????On paper, a BlackBerry leveraged buyout does make sense. The company could be viewed as a bargain, given that its $4.8 billion market cap is a perverse rearrangement of the $84 billion it was valued at back in 2008 (and 19% lower than where it began the year). More importantly, it still has decent cash-flow ($630 million last quarter) and absolutely no debt.

????Moreover, there is unlikely to be competition from strategic bidders. It's hard to imagine Silver Lake and Michael Dell would spend another $5 billion or so after having just been forced to stretch for Dell Inc. (DELL), while an Icahn-owned Dell would be more seller than buyer. China's Lenovo (LNVGY) or HTTC are always rumored to have interest, but it's hard to imagine such a deal flying with Canadian regulators (let alone what would happen to vendor agreements with U.S. government departments). There are arguments that companies like Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) or Microsoft (MSFT) may want select piece of BlackBerry -- such as its secured network assets or patents -- but being amenable to a take-private buyout is much different than enabling a strip sale. And even at today's depressed valuation, BlackBerry's parts may be too rich for strategic interest.

????So back to the buyout talk. Or lack thereof, since companies only leak such "openness" if no one is actively beating down their door.

????The flip side of a bargain is a falling knife, and it's hard to imagine too many private equity firms wanting to put out their hands for a company that is descending at such terrifying velocity. Revenue is down a whopping 30% year-over-year, while the once-profitable company is now hundreds of millions of dollars in the red.

????Today's BlackBerry is to companies like Apple and Samsung what Palm used to be to BlackBerry. That is to say it has become passé among consumers, seemingly regardless of product quality. Private equity firms are good at changing up management, massaging finances and growing sales of already-popular products. But not really at massive brand resuscitations.

????Moreover, the universe of large private equity firms with deep tech expertise is fairly limited (just think of how few firms took a serious look at Dell).

????So I'm sorry Emma, but no pony come November. But you won't be the only one not to get what you want...

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