蘋果Mac第二季度銷量幾何？
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????據(jù)調(diào)研公司高德納（Gartner）稱，全球PC出貨量上季度下降了10.9％，是該行業(yè)連續(xù)第五個季度下行。而據(jù)IDC公司稱，全球PC出貨量與去年同期相比下降了11.4％，本次衰退期之長，已創(chuàng)下行業(yè)歷史之最。
????兩家調(diào)研公司一致認(rèn)為，PC銷量下滑最主要的原因是，曾經(jīng)的個人電腦買家現(xiàn)在紛紛轉(zhuǎn)而購買平板電腦。 ????蘋果公司（Apple）在這方面的境況比其大多數(shù)競爭對手都要好。蘋果公司銷量下滑的幅度低于行業(yè)平均水平.據(jù)預(yù)測，蘋果在美國的銷量下降幅度在0.5%（IDC給出的數(shù)據(jù)）到4.3%（高德納給出的數(shù)據(jù)）之間。此外，蘋果仍是全球最暢銷的兩款平板電腦——iPad與迷你iPad——的制造商。 ????我們?yōu)榇苏{(diào)查了一些分析師，他們給出的預(yù)測不如IDC和高德納的樂觀，但也算不錯了。 ????我們迄今收到了44位分析師——其中27位為華爾街專業(yè)人士，另外17位是業(yè)余愛好者——做出的預(yù)測，他們對2013年第三財(cái)季Mac銷量預(yù)測的平均值為383萬部，比去年同期的402萬部減少了5％。 ????不過，有六名分析師（其中五人是專業(yè)人士）認(rèn)為，蘋果Mac的銷量可能實(shí)際上同比略有上升。 ????巴克萊資本公司（Barclay Capital）本?雷澤斯預(yù)測的Mac銷量最高，為426萬部，最低的銷量預(yù)測則出自獨(dú)立蘋果分析師組織Braeburn Group的保羅?雷納。 ????蘋果公司將于7月23日公布2013年第三財(cái)季的營收狀況。屆時(shí)我們將發(fā)現(xiàn)誰的預(yù)測誤差最小。 ????下表中是各位分析師給出的Mac銷量預(yù)測，藍(lán)色的是專業(yè)分析師，綠色的是獨(dú)立分析師。同往常一樣，感謝 Posts at Eventide網(wǎng)站的羅伯特?保羅?雷濤匯總Braeburn Group組織各位獨(dú)立分析師的預(yù)測數(shù)字。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：項(xiàng)航 |
????According to Gartner, worldwide PC shipments fell 10.9% last quarter, the industry's fifth consecutive quarter of decline. According to IDC, shipments are down 11.4% year over year, capping the industry's longest slowdown ever. ????The main thing that's hurting PC sales, both research firms agree, is that customers who used to buy PCs are buying tablet computers instead. ????In that regard, Apple (AAPL) is better off than most of its competitors. Not only were its sales hurt less than the industry average -- off somewhere between 0.5% (IDC) and 4.3% (Gartner) in the U.S. -- but Apple still makes the world's No. 2 and No. 1 best-selling tablets: The iPad and the iPad mini. ????In that context, the estimates coming in from our survey of analysts look worse than IDC's and Gartner's, but not as bad as they might. ????Among the 44 we've heard from so far -- 27 Wall Street professionals and 17 amateurs -- the average estimate of Mac unit sales in fiscal Q3 2013 is 3.83 million, down 5% from the 4.02 million Apple sold in the same quarter last year. ????But half a dozen analysts -- five of them pros -- think Apple's Mac sales may have actually gone up a bit year over year. ????The top estimates of 4.26 million Macs was submitted by Barclay Capital's Ben Reitzes. The low, 3.4 million, came from Paul Reina, an independent analyst from the Braeburn Group. ????We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q3 2013 earnings on July 23. ????Below: The individual analyst's estimates -- pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers. |
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