蘋果擺平中國媒體的代價
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????不久前，蘋果公司（Apple）公布季報后，我們接觸到的幾乎所有分析師均指出，蘋果公司37.5%的毛利率只達到了最低預期。分析師預測它的毛利率將在37.5%至38.5%之間。毛利率被用于衡量一家公司將銷售轉變成利潤的效率。 ????對此，分析師們給出了各種解釋，但大多都將利潤減少歸因于來自三星（Samsung）和其他安卓（Android）智能手機與平板電腦制造商日益激烈的競爭。 ????不過，還有一個更簡單的答案：中國。 ????筆者并不清楚無意中提出這種觀點的第一個人是誰，因為華爾街的分析師們從來不會承認獨家新聞來自競爭對手。 ????? 數據調查機構Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪烏在一篇名為“補倉2”的博客中提到這種觀點，文章的時間為4月25日，星期四凌晨2:38。 ????? 當天上午晚些時候，富國銀行集團（Wells Fargo）的梅納德?阿姆在一份客戶報告中提供了相同的解釋。 ????? 五天以后，即4月30日星期二，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂也發表了與此有關的文章。 ????這種觀點認為：在上個財季的最后一天，為了讓連續兩周每天都對蘋果口誅筆伐的中國媒體滿意，蒂姆?庫克出面向中國消費者道歉，同時還修改了保修與返修政策——如將在中國參加維修的iPhone手機保修期延長一年。 ????與此同時，在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的Form 10-Q季度報表中，蘋果公司登記了4.14億美元所謂的應計保修開支，對個別未提及的改變“服務政策和其他估算保修成本”所產生的影響進行了解釋。而這4.14億美元直接來自上個季度iPhone手機所帶來的收入，使公司的總體毛利率下降了1個百分點。 ????摩根士丹利的休伯蒂估計，如果不是由于中國媒體的攻勢和庫克的回應，蘋果公司的毛利率可能在38.4%左右——恰好在其指導范圍的上限。 ????如果蘋果公布的是更高的利潤率，市場第二天又會出現什么樣的反應呢？對此，我們可能永遠無法知道答案。（財富中文網） ????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓 |
????After Apple's (AAPL) quarterly report last week nearly every analyst we heard from pointed out that the company's 37.5% gross margin -- the measure of how efficiently a company turns sales into profits -- was at very bottom of its 37.5%-to-38.5% forecast range. ????The analysts offered a variety explanations, but most attributed the reduced margins to increased competition from Samsung and other manufacturers of Android smartphones and tablets. ????But there's a simpler answer: China. ????I don't know who hit on this theory first, because Wall Street analysts never credit their competitors' scoops. ????? Asymco's Horace Dediu had it in a post called Margin Call 2 that was time-stamped Thursday, April 25 at 2:38 a.m. ????? Wells Fargo's Maynard Um offered the same explanation in a note to clients issued later that morning. ????? Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty wrote about it on Tuesday April 30, five days later. ????The theory is this: On the last day of the quarter Tim Cook, to appease government-owned media outlets that for two weeks had been attacking Apple on a daily basis, issued an apology to his Chinese customers and changed Apple's warranty and return policies -- among other things, extending the warranties on any iPhone brought in for repair in China for a full year. ????At the same time, according to the company's SEC Form 10-Q, Apple booked $414 million in so-called warranty accruals to account for the impact of changes to certain unnamed "service policies and other estimated warranty costs." That $414 million came directly out of last quarter's iPhone revenue and reduced the company's overall gross margin by nearly 1 percentage point. ????Morgan Stanley's Huberty estimates that if it weren't for China's media campaign and Cook's response, Apple would have reported a gross margin of approximately 38.4% -- just shy of the top of its guidance range. ????How the market would have reacted the next day to the higher margins, we will never know. |
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