眾籌熱背后的隱憂
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????換言之，典型的眾籌投資回報很可能甚至比不上風投行業(yè)差強人意的回報率。如果是這樣，投資者有什么理由要持續(xù)投錢呢？要知道，股權型眾籌不同于Kickstarter。這里唯一的有形回報是貨幣，不是什么時尚手表。 ????當然，可能會有一些超級成功的案例，推動持續(xù)投資，引來新用戶(得益于媒體熱評)。假定美國證券交易委員會(SEC)最后才決定出手介入，一開始用戶數(shù)可能會出現(xiàn)飆升。 ????但如果普通投資者發(fā)現(xiàn)眾籌組合的回報率低于401(k)賬戶或個人股票投資組合，他們憑什么繼續(xù)把錢投入眾籌？傳統(tǒng)風投公司籌集資金時往往會選擇一個大的投資組合，設定長期投資時限。個人不一定會做這樣的事。 ????我聽到的唯一反方論點是，在眾籌投資中“支持有價值的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)”，它的意義不亞于投資回報率，或許是因為這家公司是一家本地公司，或許是因為投資者非常認同這家公司更宏觀的社會使命。 ????如果是這樣，那很好，我真心支持。但這有一個很大的問題，它等于說眾籌只是“慈善資本主義”的改頭換顏，而并不是初創(chuàng)企業(yè)早期融資模式的改革。這樣的說辭絕對無法打動展示日的出席者們，讓他們掏出支票本。只要他們還想跑贏標普500的話，他們就不會這么干。 |
????In other words, odds are that typical crowdfunding investment returns won't even reach venture capital's mediocre heights. And, if that proves out, why are investors going to keep investing? Remember, equity-based crowdfunding is different than Kickstarter. The only tangible return here is money, not a trendy watch. ????To be sure, there could be some massive hits that would both propel repeat investment and prompt new users (thanks to the inevitable media blitz). And the initial user surge may be huge, assuming that the SEC eventually chooses to do its job. ????But if the average person generates lower returns from their crowdfunding portfolio than from their 401(k) or personal stock portfolio, why would they allocate future dollars to the former? When traditional VC firms raise funds, they commit to a large portfolio and a long-term time horizon. Individuals don't necessarily do the same. ????The only counter-argument I've heard is that crowdfunding is just as much about supporting worthy startups as it is about ROI. Maybe because the company is local, or the investor agrees with its broader social mission. ????That's all wonderful, and I wholeheartedly endorse such efforts. But it's also a very long tail dragging on the ground -- creating a "charitable capitalism" niche rather than revolutionizing early-stage finance. That's not what should get the Demo Day attendees reaching for their checkbooks. Well, not so long as those attendees would like to outperform the S&P 500. |
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