眾籌熱背后的隱憂
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????上周二是Y Combinator日，這個(gè)每年兩次的盛會展示的是那些受到風(fēng)投界導(dǎo)師保羅?格雷厄姆青睞的初創(chuàng)公司。這次盛會的熱點(diǎn)詞是“眾籌”。 ????下面是CNet的丹尼爾?特第曼對現(xiàn)場的描述： ????一天內(nèi)有47家初創(chuàng)公司上臺，在聚光燈下進(jìn)行三分鐘演示。有好幾家公司自稱已通過Kickstarter眾籌，已經(jīng)采用如今眾所周知的眾籌模式，或者試圖從這一模式的泛組織化中獲利。 ????它們是：Microryza (“Kickstarter for science”)、Teespring (“Kickstarter for T-shirts”)、Watsi (一家致力于通過眾籌模式為個(gè)人醫(yī)療保健籌資的非盈利組織)、Wefunder (希望通過Kickstarter模式為初創(chuàng)企業(yè)提供資金)、Backerkit (已建立一個(gè)面向Kickstarter項(xiàng)目創(chuàng)立人的CRM系統(tǒng))。 ????另外，還有一家公司希望借助眾籌，解決診斷疾病的難題。 ????總而言之，感覺這就像是一場“眾籌”大會。這一切應(yīng)該感謝美國《創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)融資法案》（JOBS ACT）。這部法案旨在為中小投資者提供機(jī)會（當(dāng)然，也有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)），投資私營初創(chuàng)公司或項(xiàng)目。法案已經(jīng)獲得美國國會通過和奧巴馬簽字批準(zhǔn)，正待實(shí)施。不過，它已經(jīng)大大促進(jìn)了眾籌的發(fā)展，Kickstarter和它的競爭對手Indiegogo等平臺則一馬當(dāng)先。 ????我可以理解一開始的供需吸引力以及新法案的推動(dòng)作用。但我懷疑這些平臺可能大多數(shù)都難以做大做久。眾所周知，這才是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人來到展示日尋找的東西。 ????股權(quán)型眾籌基本上是追求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的民主化——允許平頭百姓投資本來可能不被傳統(tǒng)融資模式看好的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)(原因可能是地理位置或所在行業(yè))。更多的資金追逐更多的交易。 ????但對于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資，有一件事我們是知道的，那就是這是最難獲得高投資回報(bào)的投資方式之一。有一段時(shí)間，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的10年回報(bào)率中值事實(shí)上為負(fù)值。近年來情況有所改善，但康橋咨詢公司（Cambridge Associates）的報(bào)告依然顯示，早期風(fēng)投的1年、3年和10年投資基準(zhǔn)仍低于道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)、納斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)以及標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(5年期確實(shí)比這三個(gè)指數(shù)表現(xiàn)都要好)。天使投資的回報(bào)率更是差得驚人。 ????眾籌等于是將一些不成熟的投資者引入了一個(gè)發(fā)行人欺詐概率更高的全新市場。而且，可供投資的企業(yè)也具有“幸存者偏差”，大多數(shù)有前途的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)仍會選擇傳統(tǒng)的VC。 |
????Tuesday was Y Combinator Day, a bi-annual showcase for startups that have received the blessing of VC shepherd Paul Graham. And the buzzword this time around was crowdfunding. ????Here is how CNet's Daniel Terdimandescribed the scene: ????Over the course of the day, 47 startups took the stage for the three minutes under the spotlights. And no less than five of them were either described as "Kickstarter for" something, or were based on the now-well-understood crowdfunding model -- or trying to profit from that model's general disorganization. ????There was Microryza -- "Kickstarter for science;" Teespring -- "Kickstarter for T-shirts;" Watsi -- a non-profit aiming to leverage the crowd to finance individuals' medical care; Wefunder -- which wants to fund startups using the Kickstarter model; and Backerkit, which has built a CRM system for Kickstarter project creators. ????Plus, there was one company hoping to leverage crowdsourcing to solve difficult to diagnose medical conditions. ????All in all, this felt like a reunion party for the word "crowd." And we have the JOBS Act to thank for that. That legislation, which was designed to let small investors get in on the fun (and risk, obviously) of funding privately-held startups or projects, was passed by Congress passed and signed by President Obama, but has yet to be implemented. Nonetheless, it has inspired the growth of crowdfunding, with Kickstarter and competitors like Indiegogo leading the charge. ????I understand the initial supply-and-demand appeal, and the new legislative lubrication. But I'm skeptical that most of these platforms can become large, long-term businesses. You know, the type of thing that venture capitalists came to Demo Day to find. ????Equity-based crowdfunding is basically seeking to democratize venture capital -- allowing ordinary folks to invest in startups that may be disenfranchised by the traditional funding model (perhaps due to location or industry). More money chasing more deals. ????But one thing we know about venture capital is that it is among the most difficult ways to generate high investment returns. For a while, then ten-year median VC return was actually negative. Things have improved a bit lately, but Cambridge Associates still reports that the 1-year, 3-year and 10-year early-stage VC benchmark underperforms the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 (the 5-year actually bests all three comps). Angel investment returns are even scarier. ????Now you're introducing unsophisticated investors into a new market that has an increased likelihood of issuer fraud. Moreover, the pool of available investments will have negative survivor bias -- since many of the most promising startups still will go to traditional VCs. |
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