分析師預測蘋果今年將推廉價iPhone
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????蘋果（Apple）即將推出iPhone 5S，至于時間？6月，7月，或者9月之前都有可能。蘋果還將同時推出一款廉價版iPhone，當然，時間也可能在9月后。總之，以上就是三位分析師做出的預測。至于說他們預測的依據何在，還是讓他們自己來講吧。三人原話如下： ????加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）分析師阿米特?德萊納尼：“通過對供應鏈的考察，我們確定蘋果將在今年第二季度或第三季度初同時發布兩款手機：iPhone 5S，以及低端廉價版iPhone。低端iPhone的屏幕和iPhone 5一樣，都為4英寸，不過外殼材質是塑料，而且不支持視網膜高清顯示。雖然這款產品的毛利率可能低于iPhone 5和iPhone 5S，但它有望提升蘋果公司38%的整體毛利率。所以，我們預測低端iPhone在2014年有望為蘋果貢獻220億美元營收，并使每股收益增加5美元。蘋果股價有望因此上漲超過50美元。” ????投資銀行Cannacord分析師邁克爾?沃克利：“我們最初預測蘋果將于今年6月發布iPhone5S。不過經過對手機市場的分析以及與供應商的討論，我們最終確定這一時間為今年夏天或第三季度。此外，大量極其出色的高端Android智能手機新近上市，有望在2013年第二季度熱賣，因此我們認為蘋果的市場份額在2013年上半年將有所下滑。有鑒于此，我們下調了對iPhone在2013財年第三季度的銷量預測。我們還確信，蘋果將發布一款更具價格優勢的中端iPhone，以更好地切入以預付費為主的國際市場。據此我們已經調整了蘋果2014財年預測以及平均售價預測。” ????瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）分析師庫彼得?格切：“根據我們與亞洲團隊的接觸，我們認為蘋果在今年年中時不但會推出新的iPhone 5，而且還將推出一款專門定制的低端iPhone。我們認為，總體而言，這是一個利好，因為它能維持收入和凈利潤增長（有助于實現我們對2013和2014財年分別為44.92和54.03美元的每股收入預期），以及應對來自Android和三星（Samsung）的銷量和生態系統競爭威脅，同時繼續提高蘋果手機的裝機量。” ????這樣的預測對蘋果的用戶以及其競爭者意味著什么？要回答這個問題，我推薦閱讀iMore上雷內?里奇的大作《iPhone 5S問題》。（財富中文網） ????譯者：項航 |
????Apple (AAPL) will launch the iPhone 5S in June or July or before September. The company will launch a lower-priced iPhone simultaneously or maybe after September. ????Anyway, that's what these three analysts predict based on ... well, I'll let them tell you themselves. In their own words: ????RBC's Amit Daryanani: "Our supply-chain checks indicate that... AAPL will launch the iPhone5s and a more affordable but lower-end iPhone at the same time, in either late CYQ2 or early Q3. The low-end iPhone will have the same 4" form factor as the iPhone5 but will have plastic casing and no retina display... The product may have lower GMs than iPhone5/5s but should be accretive to AAPL's corporate GMs of 38%. Hence, we estimate this could contribute $22B in revenues and $5.00+ in EPS in CY14E, which suggests the product could be worth $50+ to AAPL's stock price." ????Cannacord's T. Michael Walkley: "Based on our handset market analysis and discussions with suppliers, we believe Apple could launch a refreshed iPhone 5S this summer or during Q3/C2013 versus our initial expectation for a launch in June. Further, with a host of impressive recently launched high-end Android smartphones expected to ramp in Q2/C2013, we believe Apple could lose smartphone market share during 1H/C2013 and have reduced our Q3/F2013 iPhone estimates... We also believe Apple will launch a more competitively priced mid-tier iPhone for pre-paid international markets and have adjusted our F2014 estimates and ASP assumptions." ????Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha: "Our checks in conjunction with our Asian team point to Apple not only refreshing the iPhone 5 mid-year but also a specifically targeted low-end iPhone. We believe in aggregate this a positive as it can sustain top and bottom line growth (giving upside to our FY13/14 EPS of $44.92/$54.03), deal with the competitive ecosystem and volume threat from Android/Samsung and continue to drive growth in Apple's installed base." ????What do such predictions mean for Apple's customers and competitors? For that analysis, I recommend Rene Ritche's The "iPhone 5S" problem on iMore. |
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