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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果能否奪回智能手機霸主地位?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年03月19日

蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
曾經有兩個季度,蘋果在智能手機市場獨占鰲頭,但隨著三星異軍突起,這樣的好光景恐怕已經一去不復返了。

????

????就三星(Samsung)Galaxy S4對蘋果(Apple)造成的影響,瑞士報紙《時報》(Le Temps)財經版副主編阿諾和?賽德塔基采訪了美國數據調查機構Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪烏,而且問了一個似乎非常合理的問題:

????問:蘋果能否奪回在智能手機市場的領先地位?怎樣做才有可能?

????秉承一貫風格,德迪烏用一幅圖表給出了回答:

????答:蘋果曾領導手機市場兩個季度(見圖表)。

????認為蘋果曾長期主導市場不過是錯覺。除非某家公司的產品陣容龐大,而且在所有市場銷售,否則要想登上頭把交椅相當困難。蘋果手機的運營商銷售網絡尚不足三星的一半,而且蘋果每年僅推出一款新產品。

????此外,蘋果采用的分銷模式使得iPhone的價格極高。它的主要買家是幾年前做出大批量購買承諾的運營商。iPhone的定價戰略可概括為“撇脂法”,只瞄準最能帶來盈利的客戶,而不是注重市場占有率的“滲透法”。因此,蘋果能有如今這樣的出貨量已經很令人驚訝了。

????閱讀采訪全文可登錄Asymco.com。

????譯者:項航

????In an interview about the impact of Samsung's Galaxy S4 on Apple (AAPL), Anouch Seydtaghi, deputy economics editor for the Swiss newspaper Le Temps, asked Asymco's Horace Dediu what seemed like a perfectly reasonable question:

????Q: Can Apple regain the lead in the smartphone market? If yes, how?

????Dediu responded, characteristically, with a chart:

????A: Apple had leadership in the phone market for two quarters (see graphic).

????It's a myth to think that Apple was dominant for any extended period of time. The top spot is very difficult to obtain unless a company has a large portfolio of products which are sold in all markets. Apple has less than half the operator distribution of Samsung and keeps only one new product in the market each year.

????Apple also has a very high price due to the distribution model it uses for the iPhone. The primary buyers are operators who made large volume purchase commitments a few years ago. The iPhone strategy can be summarized as "skimming" where they pick the most profitable customers rather than "penetration" where there is a focus on market share. It's therefore very surprising that Apple was able to ship as many phones as it did.

????You can read the rest of the interview at Asymco.com.

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