彭博：智能手表能給蘋果帶來36億美元
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????蘋果201年申請的一項專利。 ????彼得?巴羅斯是一位有著二十多年從業經驗的資深科技記者。在他帶領下，彭博公司（Bloomberg）在三周前的《紐約時報》（New York Times）和《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）對蘋果公司（Apple）iWatch所做報道的基礎上，再次對此進行了深入挖掘。 ????根據兩位“熟悉蘋果公司計劃”的知情人士透露的線索，彭博在第一周發表了一篇報道。報道稱，蘋果調用了100位產品設計師，正在開發一款腕表式的設備，能執行一些目前由iPhone和iPad完成的任務。 ????星期一的這篇報道分析了智能手表行業。互聯網上有一種普遍觀點：現在沒人戴手表了，除非是把它當成一種時尚表達。相比之下，這篇文章的看法非常獨特。 ????彭博這篇報道的主要觀點如下： ????? 手表是個大產業。2013年全球手表業銷售額將達600億美元。 ????? 手表業利潤豐厚。手表的毛利率大概是60%，對蘋果來說正中下懷。 ????? 手表產業比電視產業更有吸引力。手表的利潤率大概是電視的四倍。 ????? 蘋果對手表很感興趣。蘋果公司已取得79項含有“手腕”這個詞的專利，包括一款帶有折疊屏、動能驅動的設備。 ????? 喬納森?艾夫尤其感興趣。身為蘋果的首席設計師，他擁有眾多高端手表。2000年中，他率隊造訪了耐克公司（Nike），帶回來耐克的一款運動手表，數量多達好幾箱。 ????? 恰逢良機。2003年，微軟（Microsoft）和時尚品牌Fossil在智能手機上的合作流產了。但時至今日，用戶比以往更習慣在生活中使用手機應用。 ????據彭博社的一位知情人士透露，蘋果這款手表正在開發的性能包括：打電話、查看來電人身份、查看地圖坐標、計算步數（用內置步數器）、以及監控心率等健康信息。 ????如果蘋果能在這個總額高達600億美元的大市場中獲得10%的份額，而且毛利率達到60%，彭博預測，蘋果能夠在這款智能手表身上拿到的營收將高達36億美元。而摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂做了類似預估，同時提出，蘋果每年因此獲得的增量營收為100億到150億美元，這個預測假定蘋果現有客戶中，20%的人每兩年會買一個。請看她的圖解。 ???? |
????From a patent Apple filed in 2011. ??? Led by Peter Burrows, a veteran tech reporter with more than two decades under his belt, Bloomberg has taken a second crack at the Apple (AAPL) iWatch story that the New York Times and Wall Street Journal broke three weeks ago. ??? Bloomberg's contribution that first week was a report, sourced by two people "familiar with the company's plans," that Apple had 100 product designers working on a wristwatch-like device that could perform some of the tasks now handled by the iPhone and iPad. ??? Monday's piece offers an analysis of the smart watch business that makes it look considerably more attractive than the prevailing view on the Internet -- which is that nobody wears a watch anymore except as a fashion statement. ??? Among the points the Bloomberg story makes: ??? ? Watches are a big business. The global watch industry will generate $60 billion in sales in 2013. ??? ? Watches are a profitable business. Gross margins on watches are about 60%, right in Apple's comfort zone. ??? ? Watches are a more attractive business than TVs. The margin on watches is about four times bigger than for televisions. ??? ? Apple is interested in watches. The company has taken out 79 patents with the word "wrist" in them, including one for a device with a flexible screen that's powered by kinetic energy. ??? ? Jony Ive is particularly interested. Apple's chief designer owns many high-end models and in the mid-2000s had a team visit Nike and bring home boxes of one of their sports watches. ??? ? The timing is right. A 2003 Microsoft-Fossil smart phone partnership fizzled, but customers are more accustomed today to using mobile apps in their everyday lives. ??? Among the features under consideration, according to one of Bloomberg's sources, is making phone calls, seeing the identity of incoming callers, checking map coordinates, counting steps (with a built-in pedometer) and monitoring health-related data, such as heart rates. ??? Assuming a 10% market share of a $60 billion market with a 60% gross margin, Bloomberg estimates that Apple could see revenues of up to $3.6 billion with a successful smart watch. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty did a similar exercise and came up with incremental revenue to Apple of $10 to $15 billion a year, assuming 20% of Apple's existing customers bought one every two years. See her spreadsheet below. ? |
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????Bloomberg's story: Apple's Planned 'iWatch' Could Be More Profitable Than TV |
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