蘋果分析師是愚蠢還是懶惰
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????日前，蘋果（Apple）公布最新一季財報，業績未達到華爾街分析師預期，公司股價因此遭受重創，創下四年來單日跌幅最高記錄。然而，令人好奇的是，那些分析師有沒有意識到，上個財季的天數要比去年同期少了足足一周呢？ ????經常看我博客的讀者會知道，蘋果和許多零售業公司一樣，容易受到周末銷售的影響。有鑒于此，蘋果對一個財季的定義并不是三個月，而是13個星期。為了彌補每個財年和自然年之間一到兩天的誤差，蘋果每隔五、六年就會額外增加一個星期（取決于這期間有多少個閏年）。因此，時間較長的財季天數要（比平均值）多出7.7%，而時間較短的財季，其天數要（比平均值）少7.1%。 ????這一點看起來顯而易見。然而，30多個華爾街分析師中，只有寥寥數人在蘋果公布上財季財報前提到了這點。那些“自動忽略”了這個因素的分析師們自然會低估時間較長財季的營收（例如2012財年第一財季），同時，也會高估時間較短財季的營收（例如2013財年第一財季）。 ????這些拿著工資去分析全球最值錢公司的專業分析師們，難道就沒有意識到這個問題對他們的預測這么重要嗎？ ????碰巧學術界對這個問題并不陌生。去年，《會計學與經濟學學報》（Journal of Accounting and Economics）發表了四位商學院教授針對這個問題的一篇論文【《14周的季度》（14-Week Quarters），約翰斯頓等著，2012年2月-4月刊】。 ????四位教授研究了分析師們12年來對658家公司的預測后發現，那些沒有提及某財季多出一周這一點的分析師，預測的利潤比實際值高出4.2%，而預測的營收比實際值高出4.8%。（見圖表5）。 ????論文最后總結道，“獲取這樣的信息并不難，而且整合進預測也輕而易舉，所以我們得出的發現著實讓人驚訝。對多出的一周進行調整并非什么大費周章的事。這足以說明，這些分析師缺少的是努力，而并非能力。” ????這樣的說法已經算相當客氣了。不過這篇論文的引語——出自《財富》雜志（Fortune ）的一篇文章，作者是我的前同事吉姆?萊德貝特——非常尖銳。 ????“顯然商家們都表示，第四季度銷售額上升是因為今年11月多出了一周。我想說的是，那些不看日歷，在預測時不考慮這個因素的分析師，他們價值還不如一個電子表格軟件。”——吉姆?萊德貝特（《財富》雜志，2007年12月18日） ????換句話說，他們不是愚蠢，而是懶惰。 ????圖表5見下 ????譯者：項航 |
????One of the mysteries that lingers from Apple's (AAPL) most recent quarterly report -- when the company failed to meet Wall Street's expectations and its stock suffered its worst one-day loss in four years -- was whether the analysts who set those expectations were aware that the quarter was one week shorter than the same quarter a year earlier. ????As my regular readers know, Apple, like many retail firms affected by weekend sales, defines its fiscal quarters not as three months, but as 13-week periods. To compensate for the resulting shortfall of one or two days a year, the company adds an extra week every fifth or sixth year (depending on the number of leap years in between) -- giving it 7.7% more selling days in the long quarters and 7.1% fewer in the short. ????Seems pretty straightforward. Yet of the three dozen Wall Street analysts we polled in advance of last month's earnings report, only a handful mentioned the short quarter. Those who failed to take it into account, of course, would tend to underestimate revenues in the long quarter (i.e. fiscal Q1 2012) and overestimate them in the short (Q1 2013). ????Is it possible that professional analysts paid to study the world's most valuable company were unaware of something so material to their forecasts? ????As it happens, this is a familiar issue in academic circles. Just last year the Journal of Accounting and Economics published an article on the phenomenon by four business school professors ("14-Week Quarters," Johnston et. al, JAE, Feb-Apr 2012). ????The professors studied analysts' forecasts for 658 firms with 14-week quarters and discovered that over a 12-year period the magnitude of error in the estimates of analysts who failed to mention the extra week was 4.2% higher on earnings and 4.8% on revenue. (See Table 5 below). ????"These results are quite surprising in light of the ease with which this information can be obtained and incorporated into expectations," the authors conclude. "The simplicity of making an adjustment for the extra week suggests a lack of effort rather than ability." ????That's putting it politely. The article's epigraph, taken from a Fortune article by my former colleague Jim Ledbetter, is more blunt: ????"Evidently sellers are claiming that the numbers are inflated because there was an extra reporting week in November this year. To which I say: any analyst who didn't look at the calendar and factor that into earnings projections isn't worth the price of the spreadsheet software." -- James Ledbetter (Fortune, Dec. 18, 2007) ????In other words: Not stupid, just lazy. ????Below: Table 5. |
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