????為什么瑞士是有史以來最穩(wěn)定的國家？與其他國家不同的是，瑞士貨幣幣值自危機以來持續(xù)走高，而瑞士并沒有強大的中央銀行來支撐這一切。就這點來說，上述功勞似與中央政府關(guān)系不大。在《反脆弱性：無序的收獲》（Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder）一書中，納西姆·塔勒布戲謔地寫道，比起自己國家總統(tǒng)的名字，瑞士的老百姓們反倒更熟悉法國總統(tǒng)和美國總統(tǒng)的名字。

????瑞士是塔勒布有關(guān)反脆弱性理論的最好例證——在打擊和混亂的作用下，特定事物會變得更加堅強，而脆弱的事物則直接敗下陣來。

????塔勒布認(rèn)為，瑞士之所以是穩(wěn)定的樣板，正是因為它沒有強大的中央銀行或政府。組成瑞士的十幾個擁有主權(quán)的州彼此之間爭吵不斷，斗爭不休。這種混亂局面卻讓瑞士變得更加堅強，小問題在演變成大危機（比如財政懸崖）之前就已經(jīng)得以解決。

????期貨交易員出身的思想家塔勒布將《反脆弱性》一書視為畢生杰作，書中所講的不過是一個被今人遺忘的老道理。脆弱的事物，例如大銀行和負(fù)債的消費者，面臨壓力時傾向崩潰。但是，現(xiàn)實世界還有不少事物會在壓力作用下變得更加強壯。去健身房練舉重會讓一個人的肌肉更加有力。病菌能加強我們的免疫系統(tǒng)。盡管頗受非議，《五十度灰》（Fifty Shades of Grey）一書的銷量卻一路扶搖而上。

????讓塔勒布惱火的是，當(dāng)前的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人正帶領(lǐng)著這個世界向著反脆弱性的反方向前進(jìn)。于是，在小問題面前，我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會變得脆弱不堪。無論五家大到不能倒的巨型銀行犯的錯有多大，金融系統(tǒng)還要依靠它們。我們的中央銀行為了短期表現(xiàn)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)，而對刺激政策會給未來十年經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的影響卻一無所知。為了避免沖擊現(xiàn)有的銀行和經(jīng)濟(jì)——即所謂經(jīng)濟(jì)的自然周期——實際上，我們兩者都損害了。“為避免犯小錯，而大錯特錯，”塔勒布寫道。

????How did Switzerland become the most stable country in history? Its currency, unlike ours, keeps hitting new highs post-crisis, yet Switzerland doesn't have a large central bank working behind the scenes. For that matter, it doesn't have much of a central government. In?Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder,?Nassim Taleb jokes that the average Swiss citizen can name the presidents of France and the United States before they can name their own.

????It turns out Switzerland perfectly captures Taleb's idea of antifragility -- the concept that certain things grow stronger with shock and turmoil, as opposed to fragile things, which just break down.

????Taleb argues that Switzerland is a model of stability precisely because it?doesn't?have a big central bank or national government. Instead, its dozens of sovereign mini-states squabble and fight constantly. This turmoil actually makes the country stronger because the Swiss get small problems out of the way before they can metastasize into something bigger like, say, a fiscal cliff.

????What Taleb introduces in?Antifragile?-- a book the brash options-trader-turned-philosopher calls his life's work -- is an old concept that seems to have been forgotten today. Fragile things, such as big banks or debt-laden consumers, tend to break under stress. But the world is full of things that grow stronger when exposed to stress. Your muscles get stronger when you lift weights at the gym. Immune systems strengthen from exposure to germs.?Fifty Shades of Grey?sales soar despite critical disdain.

????What riles Taleb is that our leaders have increasingly shifted the modern world in the opposite direction of antifragility. As a result, our economy and society are vulnerable to little shocks. The financial system is dependent on five large banks that are too-big-to-fail, no matter how big their mistakes. Our central bankers juice the economy for short-term gain without knowing how they're affecting the next decade. By avoiding shocks to our banks and economy -- AKA the natural business cycle -- we actually harm both. "Avoiding small mistakes makes the big ones more severe," Taleb writes.