????長期以來，中國一直以世界工廠聞名于世，原因是它源源不斷地為世界生產(chǎn)著從鞋到玩具，再到iPad的一切產(chǎn)品。盡管低工資無疑是助推這個(gè)東亞巨人成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的重要因素之一，但中國的勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)正在迅速改變。

????雷小山在其《廉價(jià)中國的終結(jié)》（The End of Cheap China）一書中首先陳述了一個(gè)世人所熟知的假設(shè)：中國人不斷上升的收入有可能宣告美國人消費(fèi)廉價(jià)商品時(shí)代的結(jié)束，同時(shí)瓦解全球供應(yīng)鏈。他隨后聲稱，中國人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景不斷上升的樂觀情緒將拉升生活水平。中國工人未來會(huì)要求拿到更高的工資，而消費(fèi)者則需要更高質(zhì)量的產(chǎn)品。

????China has long been known as the world's factory because of its seemingly endless supply of cheap workers, who churn out everything from shoes to toys to iPads. While low wages certainly helped the East Asian giant become the world's second largest economy, China's labor economics are changing rapidly.

????In The End of Cheap China, Shaun Rein starts with the familiar premise that rising Chinese incomes could end cheap consumption for Americans and disrupt global supply chains. He then asserts that rising economic optimism in China will drive higher standards of living. Chinese workers will demand higher wages, while consumers will want higher quality goods.

????中國消費(fèi)者有充分的理由對(duì)其經(jīng)濟(jì)前景信心滿滿。不同于20世紀(jì)90年代的中國，如今的工作機(jī)會(huì)非常充沛，特別是對(duì)城市年輕人而言。雷小山以特別鼓舞人心的視角對(duì)當(dāng)代中國女性進(jìn)行了一番描繪，她們或許是中國人口中最樂觀的群體。如今，婦女創(chuàng)造的收入占到中國全部家庭收入的一半以上，而這一比重在上世紀(jì)50年代僅為20%。因此，對(duì)于西方消費(fèi)品公司而言，中國女性已成為一個(gè)極富吸引力的消費(fèi)群體。

????作為中國市場研究集團(tuán)（China Market Research Group）的董事總經(jīng)理，雷小山非常了解中國消費(fèi)者。這家總部位于上海的市場情報(bào)公司為蘋果（Apple）、杜邦（DuPont）和肯德基（Kentucky Fried Chicken）這些公司客戶提供與中國消費(fèi)者口味相關(guān)的咨詢服務(wù)。這本書的寫作僅僅花費(fèi)了3個(gè)月時(shí)間，書中許多內(nèi)容均源自雷小山數(shù)年來在中國實(shí)地采訪掌握的情況，他的采訪對(duì)象既包括中國企業(yè)高管、億萬富翁，也包括農(nóng)民工和妓女。雷小山以非常老到的筆觸描述了這些中國人不平凡的經(jīng)歷，以及他們對(duì)于中國成為世界最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的期許。

????對(duì)于有意在中國做生意的西方人來說，這本書列舉了不少有用的案例。然而，樂觀的雷小山更多地是通過個(gè)人見聞的片段（而不是詳實(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析）來為我們講述一個(gè)更加充滿希望的中國社會(huì)（特別是與上世紀(jì)六七十年代文化大革命的黑暗歲月相比較而言）。

????雷小山有時(shí)似乎過于樂觀了，雖然他也提到政府腐敗問題和中國改善醫(yī)療和教育體系的必要性。事實(shí)是，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在很大程度上仍然由出口驅(qū)動(dòng)。消費(fèi)者的儲(chǔ)蓄遠(yuǎn)大于他們的支出，部分原因在于，中國缺乏一個(gè)健全的社會(huì)保障體系。中國的決策者們正嘗試著重新平衡經(jīng)濟(jì)，但通往成功的道路依然非常漫長。

????盡管如此，中國依然是一個(gè)正在崛起中的超級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國，對(duì)于任何一位意欲了解中國經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的讀者來說，《廉價(jià)中國的終結(jié)》都是一本不可錯(cuò)過的好書。

????譯者：任文科

????Chinese consumers have good reason to feel good about their prospects. Unlike the China of the 1990s, job opportunities are plentiful today, particularly for young urbanites. Rein paints an especially hopeful view of modern Chinese women, possibly the most optimistic segment of the Chinese population. Today women generate more than half of all household income in China, up from only 20% in the 1950s. As a result, Chinese women have emerged as an attractive market for Western consumer companies.

????Rein knows Chinese consumers well. He is managing director of Shanghai-based China Market Research Group, which advises corporate clients such as Apple (AAPL), DuPont (DD) and Kentucky Fried Chicken on Chinese tastes. Much of the book, which was written in only three months, borrows from Rein's years in the field interviewing everyone from Chinese executives and billionaires to migrant workers and prostitutes. Rein masterfully captures where they've been and where they dream of going as China becomes the world's biggest economy.

????The book is dotted with useful case studies for Westerners interested in doing business in China. However, Rein's optimistic argument relies more on personal anecdotes than economic analysis to tell the story of a much more hopeful Chinese society, especially compared to the dark days of the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s and 1970s.

????Rein can seem overly optimistic at times, although he draws some attention to government corruption and the need to improve the country's health care and education systems. The truth is that China's economy is still largely driven by exports. Consumers save way more than they spend partly because China lacks an adequate social safety net. Chinese policymakers are trying to rebalance the economy, but there's a long road ahead.

????Nevertheless, Cheap China is an excellent read for anyone interested in the economic prospects of an emerging superpower.