蘋果股票能跌多低？
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????蘋果過去三周的股價就像在玩翹翹板，先是漲到644美元，然后跌到555美元，又漲到618美元，然后跌至581美元。投資者可能很想知道，蘋果的股價的漲跌是否會有一個下限。 ????為了給大家提供一些指導，我們請金融刊物”Bullish Cross”的分析師安迪?扎基更新了他去年為一篇文章配的兩幅蘋果股價走勢圖，這兩幅圖表原載于他去年11月發(fā)表的文章《蘋果：最被低估的美國大盤股》中。 ????右側(cè)的兩幅柱狀圖經(jīng)更新后反映了蘋果公司最新的財務(wù)季報，它將蘋果公司收益的指數(shù)級增長，與按歷史市盈率得出的股票價值的穩(wěn)定下跌進行了對比。 ????上方的圖表表明，蘋果連續(xù)12個月的每股收益大約環(huán)比上漲一倍（比如從2011年4月的20.98美元上漲至2012年4月的41.04美元）。 ????下方圖表表明，蘋果股票的價值（這里的價值指的是它的市盈率，不要把它與蘋果的股價混淆了）從2007年第四季度高達50.98的水平，降到了2012年第二季度12.62的低位。 ????這種現(xiàn)象被叫做“壓縮”，蘋果的投資者一直在抱怨這個問題。他們喜歡把蘋果的市盈率與亞馬遜（Amazon）進行比較。 ????去年蘋果的營收入增長速度幾乎達到了亞馬遜的兩倍。但蘋果本周的股價還不到每股收益的14.3倍。假如蘋果的市盈率可以達到亞馬遜的水平（即每股收益的190倍），那么現(xiàn)在蘋果的每股價格可能會達到7800美元以上。 ????不過把任何股價與亞馬遜對比，都只能讓你頭疼。 ????扎基認為，蘋果的市盈率能“壓縮”到什么水平，看來是有一個極限的。“從蘋果最近的歷史來看，它的市盈率只有兩次下降到了12.6的水平，”他說：“一次是經(jīng)濟危機期間，一次是現(xiàn)在。而且每次它都導致了一輪大規(guī)模的重新估值。”?? |
????Watching Apple's (AAPL) share price see-saw over the past three weeks -- up to $644, down to $555, up to $618, down to $581 -- investors might well wonder whether there's any limit to how high or, more to the point these days, how low the stock can go. ????To set some guidelines, we asked Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky to freshen a pair of charts he posted last November for an article entitled Apple: The Most Undervalued Large-Cap Stock in America. ????The bar graphs at right, updated to reflect the most recent quarterly report, contrast the exponential increase in Apple's earning with the steady decline in the value of its stock as measured by its trailing price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). ????The top chart shows Apple's twelve month trailing (TTM) earnings roughly doubling year-over-year (from $20.98 in April 2011, for example, to $41.04 in April 2012). ????The bottom chart shows its stock's value (its P/E, not to be confused with its stock price) falling from as high as 50.98 in Q4 2007 to as low as 12.62 in Q2 2012. ????This is called "compression," and you hear Apple investors complaining about it all the time. They like to contrast Apple's P/E ratio to Amazon's (AMZN). ????Apple's revenues grew nearly twice as fast as Amazon's last year. But Apple's stock is trading this week at less than 14.3 times earning. If it were trading, as Amazon does, at 190 times earnings, it would selling for more than $7,800 a share. ????But comparing any stock with Amazon buys you nothing but heartache. ????Zaky's point is that there seems to be a limit to how much Apple's P/E can be compressed. "In its recent history, it went to 12.6 only twice," he says. "During the financial crisis and now. And each time it led to a massive reevaluation."???? |
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