默多克式瘋狂解密
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????魯伯特?默多克常有驚人之舉，決定讓自己的兒子辭職就是一個典型例子。有時，他很理性，機智精明，偶爾還不講情面。就像這次這樣。但有時，他的一些重大決定則跟著感覺走，無厘頭，甚至不可理喻；比如，他經營的《紐約郵報》（New York Post）和《泰晤士報》（Times of London）都虧損嚴重，而且顯然還會繼續虧損下去，但他毫不在乎。 ????總的來說，老默多克的這套做法對他自己來說非常行得通。但對于新聞集團（News Corp.）的投資者來說就不是這么回事了。近期發生的很多事情都清楚地暴露了這個問題。令人驚訝的是，即使爆出了轟動一時的英國竊聽丑聞（一篇迅速流傳的報道稱，一位英國國會議員本周二稱這是“英國250多年來最大的企業腐敗案”），并最終導致了詹姆斯?默多克的下臺后，老默多克的這套做法依然行得通，至少對他自己來說是這樣。 ????詹姆斯?默多克身兼數職，其中就曾經包括擔任新聞集團英國報業子公司新聞國際（News International）的執行董事長。公司旗下的一家報紙《世界新聞報》（News of the World）爆出竊聽丑聞時，素以強硬作風著稱的老默多克斷然決定關閉這家有168年歷史的報紙。新聞集團的市值蒸發了數十億美元，因為投資者擔心隨后可能還會爆出更多丑聞。 ????是的，事情還沒完。調查還在進行，每天都傳來更糟糕的消息。證人們稱，電話竊聽達到了“工業規模”，新聞國際的員工普遍賄賂警方，英國警署總部（Scotland Yard）事實上已淪為“新聞國際的一個子公司”，員工們大量毀壞證據，所有這一切都得到了“最高層”的批準。最高層似乎就應該包括詹姆斯?默多克。隨著竊聽丑聞愈演愈烈，老默多克決定，兒子詹姆斯必須辭職。于是，詹姆斯辭去了新聞國際的執行董事長職務，轉戰紐約，負責國際電視和其他界定含糊的業務。 ????讓人意外的是，新聞集團的股價并沒有繼續下跌。隨著竊聽丑聞愈演愈烈，該股不降反升。去年夏天，該股一度跌至14美元，但當詹姆斯辭職時已升至20多美元。投資者們認為，這個歷史性丑聞不會對新聞集團的盈利產生太大影響；它不會讓人們停止收看動畫片《辛普森一家》（The Simpsons），也不會讓他們拒絕去影院觀看下一部《阿凡達》（Avatar）。 ????與此同時，老默多克依然率性而為。上周他帶著長子拉克蘭?默多克出現在倫敦，令很多人猜測這可能意味著廢詹姆斯而立拉克蘭。老默多克執意將來要把公司交給自己的兒子掌管沒有任何商業上的意義，反倒會疏離公司其他雄心勃勃的經理人。但他根本不在乎。 ????但是，新聞集團的股價在上漲——這是怎么回事？這個問題可比竊聽丑聞要嚴重得多，新聞集團的大多數股東們都要為投資這家企業治理糟糕的公司付出代價。通過雙層股票結構（投資者永遠需要對這種信號保持警惕），老默多克在新聞集團持有的12%股份意味著他有效地控制著董事會，因為他掌握了39%的投票權股票，而他的業務合作伙伴沙特王子阿爾瓦利德?本?塔拉爾則控制了其余7%。因此，持有88%股份的股東們明白，自己說話并不管用。老默多克想理性就理性，想感性就感性，完全為所欲為。 ????結果就是，如果華爾街的分析師們將新聞集團的各項業務價值加總，獲得的總值幾乎是其實際市值的近兩倍。投資者之所以給予“默多克折價”，是因為他們知道這家公司的管理并不是以股東利益最大化為出發點。 ????同時，前景并不美妙。是的，市場是在告訴老默多克，如果他能放棄一些控制權，做事能不再那么隨心所欲，他的財富將是現在的兩倍。但當一個人的個人資產已經超過60億美元時，他還會在乎這個嗎？ ????總之，對于老默多克來說，如今他的個人資產已經比去年夏天竊聽丑聞爆出時多了10億多美元。既然如此，他為什么要改變自己的行事方式? ????譯者：早稻米 ? |
????Rupert Murdoch's decision to demote his own son is a perfect example of why he's endlessly interesting. Sometimes he makes business decisions purely with his head, canny and shrewd, occasionally ruthless. That's what he did this time. But sometimes he makes giant decisions with his heart, appearing misguided or just nuts; for example, he runs the New York Post and the Times of London at deep losses that will apparently continue forever, and he just doesn't care. ????Overall, the Murdoch method has worked well for him. For investors in his News Corp. (NWS), it has not worked nearly as well as it should have. Recent events show the problem clearly. Amazingly, amid the U.K. phone hacking scandal that led to James Murdoch's downfall -- a mushrooming story that a member of Parliament yesterday called "the single largest corporate corruption case in this country for more than 250 years" -- the Murdoch method is still working, at least for him. ????James was, among other things, chief of News International, the News Corp. division that owns the company's British newspapers. When the phone hacking scandal erupted at one of them, the News of the World, Rupert made one of his famously tough-minded decisions, abruptly closing the 168-year-old paper. News Corp.'s value dropped by billions of dollars as investors feared more revelations would follow. ????They have followed. An inquiry still underway yields worse disclosures every day. Witnesses have reported that phone hacking was conducted at "industrial scale," that News International employees bribed the police so widely that Scotland Yard became in effect "a subsidiary of News International," that employees destroyed evidence massively, and that all of this was approved at "the highest levels." The highest levels would seem to include James Murdoch. As this mess gets bigger and uglier, Rupert concluded that James had to go. He's out as News International's boss and will work in New York City on the international TV business and other vaguely defined tasks. ????Here's the surprise: The stock isn't going down anymore. As the scandal gets worse, the stock rises higher. It fell to $14 last summer; it was over $20 when James got the shove. Investors figure this historic scandal won't hurt profits much; it won't make people stop watching The Simpsons or refuse to go see the next Avatar. ????At the same time, Rupert keeps making heart decisions. When he showed up in London last week with elder son Lachlan in tow, News Corp. kremlinologists sensed that a new heir apparent was displacing James. Rupert's determination to have one of his sons eventually run the company makes no economic sense; it discourages other ambitious managers from working there. He just doesn't care. ????But hey, the stock's up – what's the problem? The answer is it's a much bigger problem that afflicts News Corp.'s shareholders, namely the penalty they pay for investing at all in a company with terrible governance. Through dual-class stock -- always a warning sign for investors -- Murdoch's 12% economic interest in News Corp. translates into effective control of the board, because he controls 39% of the voting shares and his business partner Prince Alwaleed bin Talal controls another 7%. Thus the 88% owners know they don't run the show. Murdoch, with his unpredictable head-and-heart method, can do whatever he wants. ????The result is that when Wall Street analysts add up the value of News Corp.'s pieces, they get a total that's almost twice as great as the company's actual stock market value. Investors impose a "Murdoch discount" because they know the company isn't being managed for them. ????The outlook isn't bright. Yes, the market is telling Murdoch that if he gave up some control -- and with it, the ability to make those heart decisions whenever he wants too -- he could be twice as rich as he is. But when you're worth more than $6 billion, how much do you care? ????The bottom line for Murdoch is that he's over $1 billion richer today than he was when the scandal broke last summer. It's hard to see why he would conclude that he should change his ways one bit. |
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