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????“蘋果每進入一個市場，就重塑一個市場。”投資銀行Piper Jaffray的分析師吉恩?明斯特在周二致客戶的報告中重申了他再三重復的信念，即蘋果公司（Apple）的下一個力作將是蘋果品牌的電視機。 ????誠然，明斯特已經調低了自己的期望值。此前，他曾預測，蘋果公司將在2009年銷售660萬臺蘋果電視機頂盒，并在2011年推出完全成熟的電視機。到蘋果公司2011財年，蘋果電視的年銷量仍然不足300萬臺。然而，2011年來了又走了，蒙斯特近四年來一直在鼓吹的蘋果電視機還是遲遲沒有現身。 ????這份報告的新意在于，明斯特在報告中提到，上月曾與某“電視部件主要供應商”交談，對方聲稱蘋果公司曾與其接洽，談及“其電視顯示組件的各種功能”。聯系到去年曾有報告稱，蘋果正大力投資于生產設施，以打造50英寸液晶屏幕，并稱蘋果電視機原型正在開發中。有鑒于此，蒙斯特相信，蘋果正蓄勢待發，準備進入所謂的聯網電視市場，目標是在2012年晚些時候推出。 ????不過明斯特承認，時間表“目前仍無法確定。” ????明斯特補充道：“我們認為蘋果只會進入成熟行業并重塑這個行業，智能手機就是一個例子。沒有看到完善的電視節目方案之前，我們認為蘋果不會貿然闖進電視行業。” ????完善的電視節目方案是什么？明斯特設想了三種可能：（以下為原文引用） ????1.對蘋果而言，最簡單的方案莫過于和多業務運營商合作（MSO，例如有線電視公司），讓蘋果電視具備統一接口以管理用戶的實況電視服務，這和TiVo（美國的一種數字錄像機，提供電視導航功能——譯注）的做法很像。早在蘋果開發iPhone時，許多投資者就預期蘋果會成為一家移動虛擬網絡運營商。但蘋果卻選擇了與美國電話電報公司（AT&T，當時是Cingular）合作，來將iPhone推向美國市場。同樣，為了降低成本，節約資源，蘋果這次還是可以選擇與多業務運營商合作以切入實況電視市場，使蘋果電視具備實況轉播、有線電視等功能。雖然這項方案最簡單，可能性也最大，但其變革相對也是最小的。從技術角度，該方案與目前TiVo所具備的功能很像：與多業務運營商合作，向觀眾提供統一的數字錄像/節目導航軟件接口，讓搜索和發現節目變得更為便利。在某種程度上，蘋果能夠推出的最與眾不同的東西是聯網電視軟件。因此，對電視市場而言，該方案仍能帶來一款令人耳目一新的產品。當然，蘋果也許還會將iTunes的電影租賃和購買服務也補充到蘋果電視中。 |
????"Apple enters markets to reinvent them," wrote Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster in a note to clients Tuesday reiterating his oft-repeated conviction that Apple's (AAPL) next big thing is an Apple-branded television set. ????To be sure, Munster has scaled back his expectations since he predicted that the company would sell 6.6 million Apple TV set-top boxes in 2009 and launch a full-blown TV set in 2011. By fiscal 2011, Apple was still selling fewer than 3 million Apple TVs a year, and calendar 2011 came and went without the television set whose drum Munster has been beating for nearly four years. ????The new data point in his Tuesday note is a conversation Munster had last month with a "major TV component supplier" who said it had been contacted by Apple "regarding various capabilities of their television display components." Putting this together with reports last year that Apple was investing heavily in manufacturing facilities to build 50-inch LCD screens and that prototypes of an Apple television were in the works, Munster remains confident that Apple is poised to enter the so-called connected TV market, targeting a late 2012 launch. ????But the timing, he concedes, "remains uncertain." ????"We believe that Apple only enters mature markets with the goal of revolutionizing them, as it did with the smartphone," he writes, adding: "Without a revamped TV content solution, we do not think Apple enters the TV market." ????What might a revamped TV content solution look like? Munster offers three scenarios: (I quote) ????1. Apple could simply enable its television to manage a consumer's live TV service from within a unified interface much like TiVo does, partnering with MSOs [i.e. the cable companies]. As Apple was developing the iPhone many investors expected the company to become an MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator). Instead, the company partnered with AT&T (then Cingular) to bring the iPhone to market in the U.S. Similarly, Apple could choose to avoid the cost and effort of entering the live TV services business and simply partner with MSOs to deliver live, cable TV to the Apple Television. While this would be the easiest and most likely option, it would also be the least revolutionary. Technically, this option would function much like TiVo does today: partnering with MSOs and offering a unified DVR/guidance software interface to make search and discovery easier for the viewer. In some ways, a connected TV's software is the biggest differentiator that Apple can bring to the table, so this option could still result in a new and fresh product for the television market. Apple could also supplement this with its iTunes Movie rental and purchase service directly on the television. |
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