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????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）看到了中國市場的光明前景：衣著考究的中國男女人手一部iPhone。 ????凱蒂?休伯蒂在周日致客戶的一份報告中援引摩根士丹利的AlphaWise調查，描繪了蘋果（Apple）不負眾望，最終與中國移動（China Mobile）和中國電信（China Telecom）達成交易后，中國大陸智能手機市場的“錢途”。AlphaWise的調查反映了中國迅速壯大的中產階層的購買模式。 ????休伯蒂的觀點如下： ????? 目前中國大約有1.5億高端移動用戶，其每月話費至少為100人民幣（16美元）。 ????? 目前，蘋果在中國的唯一官方運營商、中國聯通（China Unicom）擁有1,500萬高端用戶，約占中國高端用戶總數的十分之一。 ???? 今年年底或明年初，蘋果將開始通過中國移動（擁有1.2億高端用戶）和中國電信（擁有1,500萬高端用戶）銷售新一代iPhone。 ????? 五分之一的中國聯通高端用戶購買了iPhone，而其它兩家運營商的用戶預計也會步他們的后塵。（8%的中國移動高端用戶已經在使用iPhone，雖然他們僅僅只能使用2G業務。） ????? 假設市場滲透率為20%，那么到2013年，蘋果至少能多賣出2,400萬部iPhone，使該公司的每股收益增長6.5美元。 ????? 隨著iPhone日益流行和（中國）中產階級隊伍的不斷壯大，到明年，蘋果iPhone的銷售增量有望繼續上升，達到近4,000萬部，為其每股收益再添磚加瓦10美元。 |
????Morgan Stanley has seen the future and it's a well-heeled Chinese man (or woman) with an iPhone. ????In a note to clients Sunday, Katy Huberty drew on Morgan Stanley's proprietary AlphaWise survey of buying patterns among China's rapidly growing middle class to paint a picture of the smartphone market on the mainland after Apple (AAPL), as widely expected, finally signs deals with China Mobile (CHL) and China Telecom (CHA). ????She assumes: ????? That there are roughly 150 million high-end subscribers in China currently paying at least RMB 100 ($16) per month for mobile phone service. ????? That China Unicom (CHU), currently Apple's only official carrier, has 15 million of those subscribers, or roughly 10%. ????? That late this year or early next, Apple will begin selling next-generation iPhones through China Mobile (120 million high-end subscribers) and China Telecom (15 million). ????? That because 20% of China Unicom's high-end subscribers buy iPhones, the other two carriers' subscribers will follow suit. (8% China Mobile's high-end customers already use iPhones, even though they get only 2G service.) ????? Assuming 20% penetration, Apple should see, at a minimum, 24 million addition iPhone sales in 2013, adding $6.5o per share to the company's bottom line. ????? As the iPhone catches on and the middle class expands, that number could grow to nearly 40 million next year, adding $10 to Apple's earnings per share. |
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