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????指鹿為馬的行為：相比得不償失的削減費用，更惡劣的是把會計準則當兒戲，因為后者更難察覺。想想安然（Enron）設立的特殊目的實體（SPE）吧。盡管安然只持有這些實體3%的股份，卻靠著它們完成了利潤注水。 ????違法亂紀的行為：形形色色的不法行為都可以顯著地推高利潤。南方保健公司（HealthSouth）就曾經造假，欺騙性地調高了預計能從客戶處獲得的收入數額，結果導致5位首席財務官鋃鐺入獄。而費用資本化則可以使成本神奇消失，世界通信公司（WorldCom）正是將這種做法發揮到了極致。 ????企業管理者們采取這些行動，目的都是為了達到無法通過正常途徑來實現的利潤預期。要減少這些行為，公司方面至少可以拒絕給出一廂情愿的預期，但對于大多數公司來說，要公開調低預期實在是太痛苦了。因此，這樣的超額預期仍將繼續存在，而管理者們仍將繼續為此使勁渾身解數。但最糟的是，很多投資者也相信這些預期——即使這些預期顯然不靠譜。眼下就是這種情況。 |
????Misleading: Worse than misguided slashing, because it's harder to detect, is playing the accounting rules like a fiddle. Think of Enron's special purpose entities, which enabled it to increase profits through outfits in which it owned only a 3% stake. ????Illegal: Various federal crimes can boost earnings impressively. HealthSouth (HLS) fraudulently adjusted its estimates of how much it would collect from customers; five CFOs went to prison. Capitalizing expenses makes costs magically disappear; that's what WorldCom did in a bigger way than any company before or since. ????All those moves were committed by managers trying to meet profit expectations that couldn't be reached responsibly. Companies can at least reduce the temptation by refusing to make forecasts of their own, but for most the prospect of publicly dialing down expectations is just too painful. So the expectations live on, and managers keep trying to meet them. Most harmfully, many investors believe them -- even when, as now, they're clearly in fantasyland. |
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