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蘋果請柬暗藏玄機:新推iPhone可能只有一款

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年09月29日

蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
蘋果觀察者們正努力揣摩蘋果下周特別活動邀請函中的深意。

來源:蘋果公司

????假如有人認為——周二很多人都是這么看的——蘋果(Apple)邀請函的圖標用心良苦,一如蘋果對電腦屏幕圖標的態度一樣。果真如此,那么他們應該可從蘋果發給指定媒體的郵件中推導出若干結論。這封郵件的主題是“我們來談談iPhone”

????前三個圖標的意思很明顯:蘋果將于10月4日上午10時在其公司總部舉行一場活動。如果與會者駕車從舊金山出發,應該走280號路。(假如對此還有任何懷疑,邀請函的文字部分也是這么介紹的。)

????不過邀請函還另有文章。投資銀行Piper Jafray的吉恩?明斯特認為:“讓我們談談”這句話并不太隱晦地暗示,蘋果將發布升級版語音識別技術。18個月前蘋果將語音識別公司Siri收入囊中,此后就一直在從事該技術開發。部分業內人士之前預計蘋果會在今年6月的全球開發者大會(WWDC)上將其公之于眾。

????明斯特在致客戶的報告中稱:“過去,蘋果會在邀請函中使用一些晦澀難懂的暗示告訴大家將發布哪些內容。今年邀請函上‘讓我們談談iPhone’這句話可能就是個簡單的雙關句,不過它也同樣可能暗示新iPhone中將搭載新的語音功能。”

????更費思量的是“iPhone”這個單詞采用了單數形式,而且電話圖標上還有一個阿拉伯數字1。著名科技博客寫手約翰?格魯伯在其博客Daring Fireball上撰文指出,“有跡象表明到時后可能只會推出一款新的iPhone。”明斯特同樣認為如此,盡管兩人的推導思路也許有些不同。明斯特表示:

????我們認為蘋果不會推出低端iPhone。部分投資者一直期待蘋果發布低端iPhone,以低于300美元的價格賣給運營商,而目前運營商此項成本超過600美元。這樣一來,運營商將能夠提供價格實惠的無補貼iPhone,進一步加強對價格敏感型市場的滲透。然而,我們認為蘋果在10月4日的發布會上不會推出這樣一款設備。相反,我們推測蘋果將繼續推出領先設備(iPhone 5),運營商將以199或299美元的補貼價格出售該設備,同時以99美元的補貼價格出售上一代iPhone(iPhone 4或者iPhone 4S)。

????無論如何,我們下周二都將趕赴庫比提諾(蘋果總部所在地——譯注),在蘋果的大禮堂內用博客現場播報該活動進程,當然前提是可以無線上網。

????譯者:項航

????If one assumes -- as many were on Tuesday -- that Apple (AAPL) puts as much thought into the iconography of its invitations as it does into the icons on its computer screens, there are several conclusions one could draw from the "Let's talk iPhone" e-mail sent to selected member of the media.

????The meaning of first three icons is pretty clear: Apple is holding an event at 10 a.m. Oct. 4 at its corporate headquarters, and if you're driving from San Francisco, 280 is the route to take. (If there were any doubt about this, the text of the invitation says as much.)

????But there's more. Piper Jafray's Gene Munster takes the "let's talk" tag line as a not-so-subtle hint that Apple will finally be delivering the voice-recognition advances it's been working on since it acquired Siri nearly 18 months ago -- advances some expected to be announced at WWDC 2011 in June.

????"In the past," Munster writes in a note to clients, "Apple has used its invitation to include cryptic hints as to what it will announce. The phrase on this year's invite, 'Let's talk iPhone' may be a simple play on words, but may also refer to new speech-based features for the iPhone."

????Even more cryptic is the use of the singular "iPhone" and the red number 1 in the telephone icon. "Something tells me there's only one new iPhone," posted John Gruber on his Daring Fireball blog. Munster came to the same conclusion, although perhaps by a different route. He writes:

????We Do Not Expect a Low-End iPhone. Some investors are looking for Apple to announce a low-end iPhone that Apple could sell to carriers for less than $300 vs. the current carrier cost of over $600. This would enable carriers to offer affordable, unsubsidized iPhones and further penetrate more price-sensitive markets. However, we do not expect Apple to announce such a device on 10/4. Rather, we expect Apple to continue with a lead device (iPhone 5) that carriers sell subsidized for $199/ $299 along with a previous generation device (iPhone 4 or iPhone 4S) for $99.

????In any event, we'll be in Cupertino next Tuesday, live-blogging the proceedings from Apple's Town Hall Auditorium, the gods of Wi-Fi permitting.

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