????在通用電氣（GE）董事長兼首席執行官杰夫?伊梅爾特的陪同下，美國總統奧巴馬6月11日視察通用電氣位于紐約洲斯克內克塔迪（Schenectady）的一家工廠時正在參觀發動機。
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????雖然民主黨和共和黨在很多事情上都意見相左，但有一件事情雙方的看法卻是一致的：即就業現在是美國的頭等大事。對于如何推動就業增長，美國總統奧巴馬及其共和黨對手紛紛出謀劃策，唯恐落在人后。經過雙方激烈辯論一番之后，可能會出現一些不錯的方案。不過，現在能對就業問題采取實際行動的只有美國總統。但不幸的是，他有可能會選擇一個異想天開且注定會失敗的方案。 ????奧巴馬總統眼中只有一種觀點，即制造業崗位才是解決美國就業問題的關鍵。看看他最得意的就業刺激舉措吧，也就是本月即將與他碰面的就業與競爭力委員會（Jobs and Competitiveness Council）。奧巴馬是在紐約州克內克塔迪視察一個大型渦輪機工廠時宣布成立該委員會的，對于該工廠所創造的就業機會，當時他贊許有加地說，“我希望像這樣的工廠能在美國遍地開花。”隨后在6月份，他與該委員會在北卡羅來納州德罕市的一家燈飾廠會面，并表示工人們“正在帶領美國制造業王者歸來。這才是我們贏得未來的基礎?！?奧巴馬在這些講話中，有17次提到建筑制造，僅有1次提到服務，而且還是在“商品和服務”中一筆帶過。 ????奧巴馬想講述這樣一個故事：過去十年美國制造業不幸衰落，但還是有機會重回昔日輝煌，并為廣大美國民眾帶來高薪工作。 他在紐約州斯克內克塔迪郡談及上次經濟擴張時說，“過去是因為我們過度使用信用卡消費，經濟才會落到這步田地。全球各地都在向我們出售大量商品。我們必須逆轉這一局面。我們需要的是由我們發明的（技術）和制造的（產品）所推動的經濟”。 ????這個故事暗示我們在商場購買中國商品是因為美國制造業沒落了，但它顯然是占不住腳的。美國制造業在經濟擴張時經歷過飛速發展?！懊绹圃鞓I”的價值每年都在增加。奧巴馬總統所面臨的重大、最核心的問題是，我們發展制造業所需的人數一年比一年少。 ????這樣一個不爭的事實，卻總是被奧巴馬總統忽略。在美國和每個市場經濟國家，制造業優勢在于能不斷利用更少的工人生產出更多的商品。這并非一個新出現的趨勢。二次世界大戰結束時，美國制造業工人占工人總數的比例達到39%的峰值。此后該比例一直穩步下滑，目前僅為9%。歷史數據顯示，美國制造業工人人數在1979年達到頂峰。現在美國制造業工人有1,180萬，約為當時峰值的一半，盡管美國現在比以前更強大更富有，制造的產品也更多。舉例來說，在1941年美國加入二戰之前，制造業工人人數就比現在要多。 ????這些數據應該都不足為奇，因為這樣的場景我們以前就見識過。19世紀，美國農民占總就業人數的比例遠超過60%，此后該比例一路下滑，到今天已經不足2%。在過去這一比例高達60%的時代，多數人最大的擔心是挨餓。而如今不到2%的農民卻生產出這么多的糧食，生產率水平如此之高，以至于肥胖成了威脅美國人健康的頭號公敵。 ????現在，只需更少的人手就能生產出更多、更好的東西，不論是玉米、汽車，還是其他實物產品。這是不可逆轉的趨勢。 ????奧巴馬總統對制造業的癡迷已經到了相當嚴重的程度。剛當上總統后不久，他在喬治城大學（Georgetown University）演講時就對學生說：“我希望能再次看到最優秀、最聰明的美國人全身心地投入到制造業中去。”這話沒錯，更智能、更精湛和更高科技的制造業對美國而言的確是好事情。但是，我們都明白一點：制造業技術越先進，需要雇傭的勞動力就越少。在美國迫切需要更多工作機會的今天，想依靠制造業顯然不靠譜。奧巴馬總統即將與其就業與競爭力委員會碰面，他到時候會講些什么可得聽仔細了，因為美國的就業問題現在最不需要的就是異想天開的政策。 |
????Even Democrats and Republicans at each other's throats agree on one thing: Jobs are America's No. 1 issue. President Obama and his Republican challengers strive to outdo one another with ideas for job growth, and maybe some good will come of that debate. But right now the President is the only one in a position to take action on the problem. The bad news for the country is that he seems fixated on an approach that is delusional and doomed. ????President Obama is bedazzled by the idea of manufacturing jobs as the way forward. Just look at his most prominent jobs initiative, his Jobs and Competitiveness Council, which will meet with him at the White House this month. He announced the council's formation at a giant turbine factory in Schenectady, N.Y., praising the jobs it creates and saying, "I want plants like this all across America." He next met with the council in June at a lighting factory in Durham, N.C., telling the workers they're "leading the comeback of American manufacturing. This is where the future will be won." Total references to manufacturing and building things in those speeches: 17. Total references to services: one, and that was in the phrase "goods and services." ????The President is trying to create a narrative in which U.S. manufacturing fell into sad decline over the past decade but can be restored to its former glory and employ legions of Americans in high-paying jobs. "What was driving our economy was, we were spending a lot on credit cards," he said in Schenectady, talking about the previous economic expansion. "Folks were selling a lot to us from all over the world. We've got to reverse that. We want an economy that's fueled by what we invent and what we build." ????But that narrative, implying that U.S. manufacturing withered while we bought Chinese products at the mall, is simply wrong. American manufacturing boomed during the expansion. The value of "what we build" increased every year. The problem for the President -- and it's a giant, central problem for him -- is that we did it with fewer workers every year. ????This is the overwhelming reality that the President ignores. The great story of manufacturing in America and every place with a market economy is that we continually produce more stuff with fewer workers. The trend is not new. Manufacturing employees were 39% of total U.S. workers at the end of World War II, and that was the peak. The proportion has declined steadily ever since and is now 9%. Looking past percentages, the raw number of U.S. manufacturing workers topped out in 1979. Today it's 11.8 million, about half what it was then, though the country is far larger and richer and manufactures enormously more. For perspective, in 1941, before our entry into World War II, we had more manufacturing workers than we have today. ????None of this should be surprising, because we've seen this movie before. Well over 60% of U.S. jobs were in agriculture in the 19th century, and the proportion has been declining ever since. Today it's less than 2%. Back when it was 60%, hunger was a significant worry for much of the population. Today that tiny 2% of workers produce so much food so efficiently that obesity is our gravest national health problem. ????Fewer people relentlessly produce more and better stuff, whether it's corn, cars, or any other physical product. The trend isn't going to reverse. ????The President's obsession with manufacturing jobs goes deep. "I'd like to once again see our best and brightest commit themselves to making things," he told Georgetown University students soon after taking office. And that's fine. Smarter, more sophisticated, higher-technology manufacturing is good for America. But one thing we know for sure is that the more advanced that manufacturing becomes, the fewer people it employs. At a time when the country desperately needs more jobs, manufacturing is obviously not the place to look for them. As the President meets with his Jobs and Competitiveness Council, listen carefully to what he says. A delusional policy for America's No. 1 problem is the last thing we need. |
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