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????摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）的馬克?莫斯科維茨是華爾街上最沉得住氣的分析師之一，日前，他發(fā)表了蘋果公司觀察人士一致認(rèn)同的觀點(diǎn)：該公司將發(fā)布兩款而非一款iPhone——iPhone 5以及莫斯科維茨所說(shuō)的iPhone 4+。

????莫斯科維茨在周一致客戶的報(bào)告中描述了其“研究”發(fā)現(xiàn)。此處引用如下：

????? 我們目前預(yù)計(jì)將有兩款新iPhone面世。我們的研究顯示，其中之一是iPhone 5，它更輕更薄，能同時(shí)支持GSM和CDMA等多種制式，是一部“世界性”的智能手機(jī)。另一款手機(jī)是iPhone 4+，它以目前的iPhone 4為基礎(chǔ)，但進(jìn)行了一些細(xì)微改進(jìn)，將定位于中端市場(chǎng)并瞄準(zhǔn)中國(guó)客戶。至于目前的iPhone 4，我們預(yù)計(jì)它將和3GS一樣，主打低端市場(chǎng)。

????? 新款iPhone 4+將面向中國(guó)市場(chǎng)。我們的研究顯示，蘋果將和一家或多家中國(guó)運(yùn)營(yíng)商合作推出iPhone 4+。我們認(rèn)為這款面向中國(guó)的iPhone可能正在開(kāi)發(fā)中，但這并不意味著這款手機(jī)是中國(guó)地區(qū)獨(dú)享的。仍然會(huì)有別的情況出現(xiàn)，特別是在中端市場(chǎng)。我們的觀點(diǎn)是，雖然專為一個(gè)區(qū)域的少數(shù)幾家無(wú)線運(yùn)營(yíng)商定制設(shè)備存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但無(wú)論如何，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的龐大規(guī)模足以抵消這種劣勢(shì)。目前，中國(guó)聯(lián)通（China Unicom）是蘋果iPhone 4在中國(guó)的獨(dú)家經(jīng)銷商。

????? 蘋果將與數(shù)家大型運(yùn)營(yíng)商合作，從而迎來(lái)另新一輪的大爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。在6月份的財(cái)季，蘋果增加了42家運(yùn)營(yíng)商，他們對(duì)蘋果本季度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出預(yù)料的2,030萬(wàn)部iPhone出貨量做出了不小貢獻(xiàn)。雖然我們認(rèn)為，今后蘋果運(yùn)營(yíng)商數(shù)量的季度性增量不會(huì)出現(xiàn)這么大的增長(zhǎng)，但幾家潛在的大型運(yùn)營(yíng)商帶來(lái)的影響同樣不可小覷。中國(guó)電信（China Telecom，一億用戶）、斯普林特（Sprint）（5,200萬(wàn)用戶）、德國(guó)電信美國(guó)公司（T-Mobile USA）（3,300萬(wàn)用戶）等都是現(xiàn)成的例子。

????? 此外，我們不認(rèn)為iPad 3將于今年上市，蘋果一點(diǎn)都不著急。其它平板電腦跌跌撞撞。摩托羅拉移動(dòng)（Motorola Mobility）和RIM的最新產(chǎn)品讓人大失所望。我們也曾趕在索尼（Sony）平板電腦發(fā)布前觀摩了其演示情況。但它并沒(méi)有給我們留下什么深刻的印象。我們認(rèn)為，索尼平板電腦的傾斜式或斜面式背部設(shè)計(jì)使其看來(lái)更像一摞僵硬的、折疊起來(lái)的紙張，而不像21世紀(jì)的個(gè)人電子消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品。”

????莫斯科維茨寫道：“如果蘋果成功開(kāi)拓與新的大型運(yùn)營(yíng)商的合作，中國(guó)移動(dòng)（China Mobile）和中國(guó)電信分別擁有大約6億和1億用戶，斯普林特和德國(guó)電信美國(guó)公司則擁有5,200萬(wàn)和3,300萬(wàn)用戶，它們的效果應(yīng)該和6月份季度蘋果運(yùn)營(yíng)商數(shù)量大幅增加的效果相當(dāng)。換句話說(shuō)，我們相信在中短期內(nèi)，iPhone季度銷量有望給投資者帶來(lái)更多實(shí)實(shí)在在的驚喜。總之，假如蘋果能在今秋推出兩款新iPhone并在美國(guó)及中國(guó)與新的運(yùn)營(yíng)商達(dá)成合作，我們將見(jiàn)證一場(chǎng)‘大爆炸’。”

????莫斯科維茨堅(jiān)持其每股525美元的價(jià)格目標(biāo)。本周一中午，蘋果的盤中交易價(jià)創(chuàng)下新高，突破了每股410美元。

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz, one of the last holdouts on Wall Street, has come around to what has become conventional wisdom among Apple (AAPL) watchers: That the company is set to release not one but two iPhones, an iPhone 5 and what Moskowitz calls an iPhone 4-plus.

????In a report to clients Monday he describes what his "research" has turned up. I quote:

????? We now expect two new iPhones. Our research indicates that there will be an iPhone 5 based on a lighter, thinner form factor that is GSM + CDMA capable, i.e., a "world-mode" smartphone. A second device (4-plus) based on the current iPhone 4 but with some minor improvements could target the midrange and focus on China. As for the current iPhone 4, we expect it to subsume 3GS as the lower-end offering.

????? A new iPhone 4-plus could target China. Our research indicates Apple could release an iPhone 4-plus, targeting one or more China network carriers. While we think a China-focused iPhone could be in the works, it is not likely to be exclusive to the region. There could be other use cases, particularly in the midrange. Either way, the size of the China opportunity overcomes any potential drawbacks of making a specially-designed device for a few wireless carriers in one region, in our view. In China, Apple currently sells its iPhone 4 only through China Unicom.

????? Expecting another potential big bang with a few big carriers. Apple added 42 carriers in the June quarter, which partly contributed to the bigger-than-expected iPhone units of 20.3 million. While we do not expect a similar QoQ increase in the number of carriers going forward, we think that the size of the next potential new carriers can have a big impact. Examples include China Telecom (100M subs), Sprint (52M subs), and T-Mobile USA (33M subs).

????? Separately, we do not expect iPad 3 this year, but there's no rush. The other tablet entrants have stumbled. Offerings by MMI and RIM have been the latest disappointments. Also, we had the opportunity to demo Sony's tablet before its launch. We were not impressed. Sony's tablet lacks the refined, sleek feel of the iPad. We felt that the sloping or bezel-like back of the Sony tablet feels more like petrified, folded-over pages than a 21st century consumer electronics device.

????"If penetrated," he writes, "China Mobile and China Telecom with approximately 600 million and 100 million subscribers, alongside Sprint and T-Mobile USA with 52 million and 33 million subscribers, stand to have an effect tantamount to the big increase in the number of carriers exhibited in the June quarter. In other words, we believe that investors should start to prepare for more positive surprises related to the quarterly run rate of iPhones in the near- to mid-term. In summary, we would expect such a big bang if Apple introduces two new iPhones this fall and penetrates the untapped U.S. and China carriers."

????Moskowitz is sticking with his price target of $525 a share. At midday Monday, Apple was setting new all-time intraday highs above $410 a share.