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????幾年前，風險投資家斯圖爾特?奧斯普發表了一個演講，討論為何Facebook公司不應接受微軟公司（Microsoft）按150億美元估值所做的投資。或者更確切地說，為何Facebook不應讓這一估值泄露出去。他的觀點是，Facebook可能會上市，或以更低價格被收購，隨之而來的壓力會使公司在外界看來走上了下坡路——盡管對處于當時那個發展階段Facebook來說，50億美元或100億美元的估值已經是一個巨大成功了。 ????誠然，斯圖爾特在Facebook一事上判斷失誤。但他的論斷卻在Groupon身上得到了驗證。我不知道首先報道此事的是哪家媒體，但幾個月來，一直有人公開暗示，Groupon正在尋求總額達250億美元的后IPO估值。證券交易委員會（SEC）公開的文件中并未出現這個數字，很明顯，是有人泄密。此人要么是Groupon公司的內部人員，要么是其他與公司高層有所接觸的人（比如銀行家）。 ????如果Groupon自己就是那個狂妄自大的泄密者，那它活該要遭受來自同行們射來的亂箭。而如果是某個內部人員干的，那么安德魯?梅森就該找出這個人來，再把他塞到《玩偶特工》（Dollhouse，Fox電視臺科幻劇，主人公是一個被抹去了記憶的試驗品——譯注）那樣的傀儡里。 ????盡管問題不斷，包括與證券交易委員會之間的摩擦，Groupon仍是一個源源不斷吐出現金流的巨人。今年晚些時候，它幾乎肯定會以某個價格進行IPO。而現在，任何少于250億美元的估值——它肯定達不到這個數——都會給它帶來尷尬，或者被視為增長乏力。Groupon三年前才剛創立、迄今尚未盈利，對這樣一個公司來說，100億美元或150億美元的估值并不是真的讓人難堪，而是因為它自己或某些人無端生造出來的某種看法使人產生這種感覺。最起碼，它很有希望成為一個值得所有后來者警惕的故事。 ????【警告：如果Groupon最終以低于60億美元的估值上市，也就是谷歌公司（Google）去年提出的收購價格，這種尷尬就會成為現實。】 ????譯者：清遠 |
????Several years ago, venture capitalist Stewart Alsop gave a speech about why Facebook shouldn't have accepted Microsoft's investment at a $15 billion valuation. Or, more specifically, why Facebook shouldn't have allowed the valuation to leak. His argument was that Facebook would likely go public or be acquired at a lower number, and the subsequent press would make the company appear to be on the decline – even though $5 billion or $10 billion would have been a massive win for a company at that stage of its development. ????To be sure, Stewart was wrong about Facebook. But his lesson might be taking hold at Groupon. I don't know who reported it first, but for months it's been publicly suggested that Groupon is seeking a post-IPO valuation of $25 billion. You can't figure that out from the available SEC docs, so clearly this was leaked by someone either at Groupon or someone else (read: banker) who met with company executives. ????If Groupon itself was the hubristic leaker, then it deserves many of the arrows currently sticking out of its North Side hide. And if it was someone else, then Andrew Mason should track that person down and shove him into a dollhouse miniature. ????For all of its issues, including those with the SEC, Groupon is a revenue-producing monster that almost certainly will price an IPO later this year. But now anything short of $25 billion – and it almost certainly will be short of that – will be viewed as some sort of embarrassment or loss of momentum. Not because a $10 or $15 billion valuation actually is embarrassing for an unprofitable company founded three years ago, but because of a perception it or someone else needlessly created. At the very least, it hopefully will be a cautionary tale for anyone who follows. ????[Caveat: If Groupon goes public at a valuation lower than $6 billion – i.e., the price Google offered to pay for an acquisition last year – then the embarrassment would be legitimate.] |
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