經濟動蕩：商界急需喬布斯式的勇氣
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????史蒂夫?喬布斯的巨大成就教會我們很多東西，其中勇氣的重要性在當前表現得尤為突出。 ????我這里所說的并非他直面健康狀況的勇氣，不過，如果我們能有幸了解更多內情，想必這個問題也值得大書特書。 ????我要說的是他作為商業領袖的非凡勇氣。作為蘋果首席執行官，他一次又一次推出前所未有的全新產品、服務甚至全套商業模式。他蔑視市場測試（因此得以對計劃嚴加保密），他無法確定是否會取得成功，如果不幸失敗，可能會帶來巨大損失和世人的嘲笑。 ????然而，他領導的蘋果是史上產品成功率最高的公司之一，作為首席執行官，他是最偉大的財富創造者，其他人都望塵莫及。如果他沒有過人的勇氣，這一切都不可能發生。 ????早在喬布斯辭職之前，這就已經是個熱門話題，因為過去幾年來的經濟動蕩使許多經理人深感憂懼，不敢采取行動。他們不斷見證本來不可能發生的事情，比如美國債信評級遭到下調，今后還會發生什么事？這種不確定性使他們呆若木雞，束手無策。 ????一本題為《不確定性：化疑慮和憂懼為成功動力》（Uncertainty: Turning Doubt and Fear Into Fuel for Brilliance）的商業類書籍將于下周出版，這可不是巧合。一位名叫比爾?特雷熱的咨詢師專門向經理人傳授勇敢之道，藉此建立起自己的公司（進入咨詢業之前，他的拿手絕技是在自己身上點火，然后從百英尺高臺躍入水中）。美國商會（Americas Business Council）去年主辦了一場勇氣論壇。關于這個話題的文章和博客帖子似乎也越來越多。 ????沒有任何跡象表明商業界的混亂形勢將會緩解，那么，商業勇氣現在意味著什么呢？包括下列幾點： 投入大量資金 ????大多數商業領袖應對不確定性的第一招就是緊縮開支，有時甚至是急劇削減。問題是，有時候這些開支實際上屬于投資，它們在未來可以帶來豐厚的回報，比如研發、市場營銷和工廠產能擴大等方面的支出。削減這部分開支可以提高眼前利潤，但卻會侵蝕日后的利潤。 ????優柔寡斷的經理人往往抱怨，他們削減此類開支是因為受到目光短淺的投資者的壓力。可是，紐約大學（New York University）教授巴魯奇?勒夫等人的研究顯示，事實并非如此：投資者能夠區分創造價值的開支和不能創造價值的開支。 ????勇敢的經理人在充滿不確定性的時候仍會持續進行創造價值的投資。即使是在大蕭條期間，杜邦（DuPont）也維持了研發支出，發明了尼龍、氯丁橡膠等產品，它們在之后的幾十年里為公司賺得了數十億美元。沃倫?巴菲特最近對美國銀行（Bank of America）的投資也是經理人勇氣的典型例子，眼下經濟風險很大，伯克希爾哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）在此情況下向遭投資者鄙視的美銀投資50億美元，這需要膽量——巴菲特正是藉此才成為巨富。 |
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????Of all that Steve Jobs' achievement has taught us, the importance of courage is especially relevant now. ????I don't mean his courage in facing his health issues, though that will be a story in itself if we ever learn the details. ????I mean his extraordinary courage as a business leader. Time and again, as the CEO of Apple (AAPL), he introduced products, services, and entire business models completely unlike anything in existence. He disdained market testing (thus keeping his plans secret), he could not be sure he would succeed, and he risked significant losses and ridicule if he failed. ????Yet his batting average was one of the all-time best, and as a CEO, he was the greatest wealth creator ever. No one else comes close. None of it could have happened without off-the-charts courage. ????The topic was hot even before the Jobs news because the economic chaos of the past few years has paralyzed managers with fear. They keep seeing events that are supposed to be impossible, such as a U.S. debt downgrade, and the uncertainty of what may happen next leaves them frozen, afraid to do anything. ????It's no coincidence that a business book called Uncertainty: Turning Doubt and Fear Into Fuel for Brilliance will be published next month. A consultant named Bill Treasurer has built his practice on teaching courage to managers (before consulting, he made a living by diving into water from 100 feet while on fire). The Americas Business Council held a Courage Forum last year. Articles and blog posts on the subject seem to be on the upswing. ????Nothing suggests the business world is getting any less chaotic. So what does business courage mean right now? A few things. Committing significant money ????The number one way most business leaders respond to uncertainty is by pulling back expenses, sometimes radically. Trouble is, sometimes those expenses are actually investments that will pay off in the future, like R&D, marketing, and plant expansion. Cutting them will result in higher reported profits today but lower profits later. ????Pusillanimous managers complain that they're forced to make these cuts by short-term oriented investors. But research by New York University's Baruch Lev and others shows that it isn't so. Investors can tell the difference between spending that builds value and spending that doesn't. ????Brave managers keep making value-creating investments in uncertain times. DuPont (DD) maintained R&D spending even through the Great Depression, inventing nylon, neoprene, and other products that would earn billions for decades thereafter. Warren Buffett's recent investment in Bank of America (BAC) is a great example of managerial courage. Putting $5 billion of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) capital into a scorned stock with the economy in peril takes guts. That's what has made him rich. |
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