“蘋果在智能手機市場的出貨量要高于其它任何廠商”
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????在上周四致客戶的報告中，針對目前蘋果（Apple）對谷歌（Google）Android手機制造商展開的專利訴訟，獨立調查機構伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的托尼?薩克納西做了仔細分析。 ????總而言之，薩克納西力挺蘋果。他提出的兩大要點如下（我引用自原文）： ????? 我們預計蘋果將竭盡全力、毫不留情地推動法律訴訟。我們認為蘋果的最大目標是通過強迫Android在關鍵性基礎功能上采取替代辦法，以遏制其發展態勢。如果此法奏效，將為蘋果帶來豐厚而積極的經濟效益。鑒于蘋果與任何廠商對簿公堂都可能是弊大于利（因為蘋果在智能手機市場的出貨量要高于其它任何廠商），所以按常理推斷，蘋果應該對其挑起的訴訟大戰有十足獲勝把握。如果蘋果能順利迫使Android更改某些功能，那么將導致市場份額的此消彼長，也將為蘋果帶來豐厚而積極的經濟效益。我們預計到2013年，蘋果將從Android手中奪下10個百分點的智能手機市場份額（目前Android和蘋果分別占據智能手機市場份額的46%和18%），蘋果年營收將增加超過300億美元，全年每股盈利將增加10美元以上。 ????? 雖然看起來蘋果在與宏達電（HTC）的專利大戰中已占據上風，但我們認為目前的判決僅僅是熱身。蘋果目前針對宏達電展開了第二輪專利訴訟，以及針對Android手機關鍵制造商三星（Samsung）和摩托羅拉（Motorola）分別提起了專利訴訟。這些訴訟均涉及iOS的多點觸摸專利，由于這些專利可能顛覆Android，所以我們認為這才是蘋果要不惜一切代價捍衛的知識產權。雖然宏達電（明確地說，是宏達電最近收購的S3 Graphics公司）和蘋果最近在美國國際貿易委員會（ITC，International Trade Commission）各勝一場，但我們相信S3的勝利影響有限（與蘋果針對宏達電提出的訴求并不一樣），不會對蘋果造成實質性威脅。更為重要的是，蘋果最近針對關鍵的多點觸摸專利，對宏達電展開第二輪專利侵權訴訟。我們認為這次大戰的意義要重要得多，不過目前還沒有任何法庭做出判決。蘋果針對其它關鍵Android OEM（原始設備制造）廠商（三星和摩托羅拉）提起的訴訟同樣涉及多點觸摸專利。與多點觸摸專利重要性相對應的是，蘋果最近與諾基亞（Nokia）達成專利訴訟和解，其所附帶的授權協議中似乎并未包括這些專利。 ????譯者：項航 |
? In a note to clients issued Thursday, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi takes a hard look at the flurry of patent lawsuits Apple (AAPL) has launched against the manufacturers of Google (GOOG) Android phones. ? All in all, he likes Apple's chances. The two key bullet points (we quote): ? ? We anticipate that Apple will push its legal claims hard and unrelentingly and believe that the company's key goal is to upend Android's momentum by forcing a work around on key essential features which, if successful, could have huge, positive financial implications for Apple. Given that Apple appears to have more to lose in any one legal case than they might gain (since Apple ships a much higher value of smartphones than any other player), logic suggests that Apple feels confident in its odds of winning patent disputes it initiates. Should Apple prevail in forcing Android to rework some of its functionality, resulting in market share shifts, it could have huge, positive financial implications for Apple: we note that a 10 percentage point shift in smartphone market share from Android to Apple (the current run-rate smartphone market share is 46% for Android vs. 18% for Apple) in 2013 is worth an estimated $30B+ in annual revenue and $10+ in annual EPS to Apple. ? ? Apple appears to have the strong upper hand in its legal battle with HTC, but we see the current rulings as only a warm up bout. A second Apple suit against HTC – as well as separate suits against key Android vendors Samsung and Motorola – involves its iOS multi-touch patents, which we believe are the key pieces of IP that Apple ultimately seeks to reaffirm at all costs, given their potential to undermine Android. While HTC (specifically, its recent acquisition – S3 Graphics) and Apple recently won preliminary judgments against each other at the US ITC, we view S3's victory as limited in scope (unlike Apple's claims against HTC) and not posing a credible threat to Apple. More importantly, however, Apple recently launched a second case against HTC claiming infringement of its key multi-touch patents. We believe this is the much more important battle, and one which courts have yet to rule upon. Apple's legal suits against other key Android OEMs (Samsung and Motorola) also include claim violation of such patents. Consistent with the importance of this IP, Apple's recent settlement of its patent dispute and accompanying licensing agreement with Nokia does not appear to involve these patents. |
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