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iPhone、Android全面夾擊,黑莓節節敗退

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年06月22日

蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
RIM不得不降低其指導性收入預測,并進行裁員,這并非偶然。

來源:Needham & Co.

????上周五,黑莓手機生產商Research in Motion大幅下調了其2012年的指導性收入預測,并警告即將進行裁員,消息一出,該公司便遭到分析師們的圍攻。比如巴倫周刊(Barron's)網站的這篇文章。

????大部分分析師都認可,是蘋果(Apple)iPhone和谷歌(Google)Android使得黑莓(BlackBerry)被邊緣化。但他們都沒有投資銀行和資產管理公司Needham的查理?烏爾夫直率,烏爾夫將自己致客戶的報告命名為《RIMM:你那一招不管用了,你該何去何從?》("RIMM: What do you do when your one trick no longer works?")。

????該報告最關鍵的一段如下:

????眼見黑莓在美國智能手機市場的份額開始下滑,2009年,Research in Motion做出了一個戰略性決策:試圖用國際市場的增長來彌補美國市場的份額流失。黑莓在美國市場的份額減少最初表現是美國最大的電信運營商Verizon將其主打品牌從黑莓變成Android。Verizon曾將黑莓作為iPhone的替代品進行推廣,希望依靠穩定的“買一送一”促銷攻勢支撐黑莓的銷量。然而,這一策略事與愿違,因為在人們眼中,黑莓與iPhone完全不是一回事。在2009年第四季度,Verizon開始力捧Android,據稱其在Verizon Droid品牌上的花費超過了1億美元。Verizon仍在繼續進行黑莓的“買一送一”活動,但已不再大肆宣傳,黑莓在Verizon的份額已經開始下降。

????譯者:項航

??? The analysts were all over Research in Motion (RIMM) Friday after the company issued sharply lower guidance for 2012 and warned of forthcoming layoffs. See, for example, Barron's take here.

??? Most recognized the role Apple (AAPL)'s iPhone and Google's (GOOG) Android played in marginalizing the BlackBerry. But none of them were quite as blunt as Needham's Charlie Wolf, who titled his note to clients "RIMM: What do you do when your one trick no longer works?"

????The key paragraph:

????Watching BlackBerry's share in the U.S. smartphone market beginning to crumble, Research in Motion made the strategic decision in 2009 to attempt to offset U.S. share losses through growth in international markets. BlackBerry's loss of share in the U.S. initially reflected Verizon's decision to switch its "halo" brand status from BlackBerry to Android. Verizon had promoted BlackBerry as an alternative to the iPhone, relying on a steady barrage of buy-one, get-one- free (BOGO) promotions to bolster BlackBerry sales. But the strategy backfired because there was no mistaking a BlackBerry for an iPhone. In the fourth quarter of 2009, Verizon hitched its wagon to Android, reportedly spending over $100 million to build the Verizon Droid brand. Verizon continued to offer BlackBerry BOGOs. But no longer in the spotlight, BlackBerry's share at Verizon began to recede.

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