來源：Asymco
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????美國數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查機構(gòu)Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪烏長期跟蹤蘋果公司（Apple）不斷增長的流動資產(chǎn)及其手機領(lǐng)域競爭對手不斷縮水的市值，他預(yù)測稱這兩者不久就能旗鼓相當(dāng)。 ????下周將是蘋果第三財政季度截止日，德迪烏確信到時候蘋果所擁有的現(xiàn)金流、現(xiàn)金等價物、短期有價證券和長期有價證券的總價值將高達700 億美元。他指出，與預(yù)測的一致，這一數(shù)字一直在持續(xù)增長。 ????與此同時，蘋果對手品牌的市值卻一直都在縮水。四家競爭者掌握了全球75%的手機市場，總價值為660億美元： ????? 諾基亞（Nokia） 226億美元 ????? 黑莓 138億美元 ????? 宏達電（HTC） 254億美元 ????? 摩托羅拉（Motorola Mobility） 42億美元 ????索尼（Sony），三星（Samsung）和LG占據(jù)了其余25%的手機市場。它們的價值比較難估計，但是德迪烏還是嘗試估計了一下，結(jié)果如上圖。 ????當(dāng)然，考慮到反壟斷法和收購對公司股票的影響，德迪烏的假設(shè)永遠不會成為現(xiàn)實。 |
????Asymco's Horace Dediu has been tracking Apple's (AAPL) growing liquid assets and the shrinking valuations of its mobile competitors, and he estimates that they soon will cross. ????Apple's third fiscal quarter closes next week, and when it does, Dediu is pretty sure that Apple will have amassed more than $70 billion in cash, cash equivalents, short-term marketable securities and long-term marketable securities. That figure, as he points out, has been growing predictably. ????Meanwhile, the enterprise value of Apple's competitors has been shrinking. Four of them control 75% of the global cellphone market and have a total valuation of $66 billion: ????? Nokia $22.6b ????? RIM $13.8b ????? HTC $25.4b ????? Motorola Mobility $4.2b ????The last 25% -- controlled by the cellular divisions of Sony, Samsung and LG -- are trickier to value. He takes a crack at it here. The result is the chart above. ????Of course, given antitrust concerns and what happens to a company's shares when someone makes a bid for them, Dediu's thought experiment would never actually come to pass. |
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