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????周二，凱雷投資集團(The Carlyle Group)同意收購老虎全球基金（Tiger Global Management）支持的新興市場股票投資管理公司ESG 55%的股權，令IPO猜測升溫。而且，凱雷著重于南美(特別是巴西)投資的新私募股權基金也已結束募集，募資約10億美元；據美國CNBC電視臺報告，凱雷正在與潛在投資者接洽，可能將募集高達12億美元的資金。 ????這些消息不足為奇，關于凱雷要上市的傳言由來已久，甚至要早于百仕通集團(Blackstone Group)。對于一家期待上市的私募股權公司，多元化是關鍵。大型的純私募股權公司，如Warburg Pincus或Hellman & Friedman，事實上并無這樣的打算(而且，可能也沒興趣)。 ????事實上，目前具備上市條件的公司為數并不算多(除了陷入困境的投資基金商Oaktree，早有傳言稱該公司在準備上市)。此外，人們經常提及美國德太投資有限公司（TPG Capital），但該公司并沒有太多的非私募股權業務。而且，該公司一直通過向主權財富基金出售少量管理公司股權的方式，為創始人帶來流動性。沒錯，百仕通和凱雷也有類似做法——可能還會承諾通過IPO提供流動性——但TPG的此類舉動可能是結果，而非手段。 ????“可能到一定階段，機構投資者會向TPG這樣的公司施壓，要求其上市，但也有可能他們就是將其視為穩定的費用收入流，”塔克商學院私募股權和創業中心（the Center for Private Equity and Entrepreneurship at Tuck School of Business）主任柯林?布萊登表示。 ????如果有的話，下一個上市的公司會是誰（我們說的主要是美國公司)？我很想聽聽您的高見。是貝恩資本(Bain Capital)呢? 還是銀湖資本（Silver Lake）? 我看不出，但您也許知道…… |
????The Carlyle Group ramped up IPO speculation yesterday, by agreeing to acquire a 55% stake in ESG, an emerging markets equities manager backed by Tiger Global Management. It also closed on around $1 billion in new private equity funds focused on South America (particularly Brazil), and CNBC reports that the firm is meeting with potential underwriters for an offering that could raise as much as $1.2 billion. ????No huge surprises to any of this, since I'm pretty sure Carlyle was rumored to be going public even before Blackstone Group (BX) was rumored to be going public. And, if you're a PE firm looking to IPO, the key is diversification. Large pure-play PE shops like Warburg Pincus or Hellman & Friedman have virtually no shot (and, possibly, no interest). ????In fact, I don't see many other legitimate candidates out there (outside of distressed firm Oaktree, which already is rumored to be prepping an offering). TPG Capital gets mentioned a lot, but it doesn't have too many non-PE business lines. Moreover, it has been generating founder liquidity by selling off small management companies stakes to sovereign wealth funds. It's true that both Blackstone and Carlyle did something similar – and perhaps promised liquidity via IPO – but TPG's moves may the an end rather than a means. ????"It's possible that those institutional investors will at some point pressure a firm like TPG to go public, but they also might just view it as a constant stream of fee revenue," says Colin Blaydon, director of the Center for Private Equity and Entrepreneurship at Tuck School of Business. ????Curious to hear who, if anyone, you think might be next (talking U.S. firms, primarily, here). Bain Capital? Silver Lake? I don't see it, but maybe you do… |
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