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????人們普遍預期Facebook將在2012年上市，周一美國全國廣播公司財經頻道（CNBC）的凱特?凱利又爆出一些猛料，使傳言進一步升級。 ????據凱利報道，Facebook計劃在今年10月或11月向美國證監會提交S-1上市申請書，然后在2012年第一季度進行首次公開募股。這也符合美國證監會關于“500個股東”的規定（美國證監會規定，任何擁有500名以上股東的公司都必須公開財務報表——譯注）。根據該規定，Facebook將被迫在明年五月前披露其財務報表，因此Facebook很可能借機上市。雖然美國證監會現在正在考慮放寬私企發行股票的門坎，但即便證監會真的這樣做了，Facebook可能仍將面對來自內部員工的上市壓力，這些員工由于公司的阻止而無法在私股二級市場上銷售自己的股份，因而可能會催逼公司上市以銷售股權。（由于Facebook員工一度在二級市場上大量賣出股份，因此Facebook不再向員工發放股票期權，而改為發放贈股）。 ????此外，凱利在報道稱，輿論認為高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）已經在Facebook上市股承銷權的競爭中占得先機，因為Facebook去年價值15億美元的私股配售就是由高盛經手管理的。另一個原因則是Facebook的上市不大可能采用公開降價拍賣的方式。 ????凱利最后稱，Facebook希望通過首次公開募股使其市值達到“1,000億美元以上”。這一估值讓其他博客人瞠目結舌，大肆轉載。簡直是莫名其妙! ????首先，最近Facebook在私股市場上的市值已經達到了850億美元左右。而私股交易一定是按公開估值的折扣價進行的。以社交網絡LinkedIn的股份為例，在LinkedIn上市前6個月，該股在私股市場上的交易價為每股23美元，6個月后LinkedIn以45美元的價格上市。如果按照這個比率，Facebook明年一月份的估值有可能達到1,650億美元。 ????不過更重要的是，人們無法未卜先知地推算出一家互聯網公司6到10個月以后的估值。到時泡沫究竟是在繼續膨脹，還是已經破裂？宏觀經濟趨勢將繼續保持入市反彈的態勢，還是將陷入二次衰退？ ????Facebook可能不需要操心所謂的IPO時機問題，但它也不可能不受經濟大氣候的影響。比方說如果廣告業遭遇了大規模的衰退，那么Facebook最大的收入支柱就會受到打擊（至少增長會放緩）。我不是說這種情況一定會發生，但顯然這種可能性是存在的。對我來說，今天凱利的這篇“1,000億美元”報道的唯一價值就在于為Facebook正式上市時實際的公開估值提供了一個參照。 ????譯者：樸成奎 |
????Facebook is widely expected to go public in 2012, and today CNBC's Kate Kelly put some meat on the rumor bones. ????She reports that the social network plans to file its S-1 by this October or November, with the actual offering to occur in Q1 2012. This is in keeping with the 500-shareholder rule theory, in which Facebook would be be forced to publicly disclose its financials by next May, so it might as well become publicly-traded. Even if the SEC lengthens that threshold -- which it is considering -- Facebook still could face IPO pressure from employees who have been prevented from selling their shares on private secondary markets (following a rash of such sales, Facebook began providing private stock grants rather than options). ????Kelly adds that Goldman Sachs (GS) is considered to have "pole position" for underwriting rights, due to its managing of a $1.5 billion secondary sale last year, and that Facebook is unlikely to use a Dutch Auction model. ????Last and least, Kelly reports that Facebook would be looking for an initial market cap in "north of $100 billion." This is the tidbit that most other blogs are breathlessly repeating, but I cannot understand why. ????First, the most recent private trades of Facebook stock came in at around $85 billion, and private trades are meant to be done at a discount to public valuations. LinkedIn (LNKD) shares, for example, traded at $23 per share on the private markets six months before going public at $45 per share. At that velocity, Facebook actually would be valued at $165 billion next January. ????More importantly, it's impossible to intelligently speculate on an Internet company valuation 6-10 months out. Will the bubble still be inflating? Will it have popped? Will macro trends have continued their anemic recovery, or double-dipped back down? ????Facebook is probably immune to the timing issues related to IPO windows, but it does not stand apart from the economy at large. If we experience a massive advertising pullback, for example, then Facebook could take a hit in its largest revenue pot (or at least a growth slowdown). Not saying that will happen, but obviously it could. To me, the only value in today's "$100 billion" report is in referring back to it when the company has an actual public valuation. |
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