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????路透社（Reuters）周三報(bào)道，凱雷投資集團(tuán)(The Carlyle Group)正在籌劃于下個(gè)季度的某個(gè)時(shí)候提交IPO申請(qǐng)。那么，凱雷IPO到底值多少錢呢？ ????目前討論這個(gè)問題聽起來可能有點(diǎn)不著調(diào)，畢竟我們還沒有看到凱雷官方發(fā)布的任何文件，但我們確實(shí)掌握了一些數(shù)據(jù)可供推算。我并不打算簡(jiǎn)單對(duì)照管理資產(chǎn)規(guī)模與已上市并購?fù)顿Y公司的市值，比如Apollo Global Management (APO)、黑石集團(tuán)(Blackstone Group)、Kohlberg, Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR)等。 ????十年前，凱雷以1.75億美元將其管理公司5.5%的股權(quán)售予加州公共雇員退休基金(CalPERS)。這意味著當(dāng)時(shí)的企業(yè)價(jià)值約為31.8億美元。 ????CalPERS每年都在年度投資報(bào)告中更新凱雷股權(quán)的賬面價(jià)值，盡管這一數(shù)據(jù)在Expansion Capital這一節(jié)里顯得藏而不露。最近一期的數(shù)據(jù)截至2010年6月30日——沒錯(cuò)，數(shù)據(jù)滯后得有點(diǎn)離譜——列明CalPERS所持凱雷股權(quán)價(jià)值約3.34億美元。對(duì)應(yīng)凱雷的企業(yè)價(jià)值約為60.7億美元，與之可比的是2009年6月的40.4億美元和2008年6月的近170億美元 (凱雷聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人戴維?魯本斯坦曾將這一時(shí)期稱為私募股權(quán)的“黃金時(shí)代”)。 ????不幸的是我們沒法掌握更新的估值。現(xiàn)在,不妨來看看那些已上市的同業(yè)公司。黑石周三開盤價(jià)較2010年7月1日漲80.36%。KKR周三開盤價(jià)較2010年7月12日漲78.57%——正是從這一天開始，KKR從阿姆斯特丹轉(zhuǎn)至紐約掛牌交易。 ????鑒于這兩只股票的漲幅幾乎一樣，我認(rèn)為可以由此推斷，今日凱雷的價(jià)值也應(yīng)比去年6月底高出了約79%。我知道這樣的類比絕非完美，畢竟非公開市場(chǎng)和公開市場(chǎng)的估值可能存在差別，而且每家公司都有不同的投資組合。但這已是我們目前所能獲得的最佳數(shù)據(jù)了，據(jù)此計(jì)算可知?jiǎng)P雷今日價(jià)值約為108.6億美元。 |
????The Carlyle Group is planning to file for an initial public offering sometime next quarter, Reuters reports today. So, how much would it be worth? ????This might sound like a specious question, given that we haven't yet seen any official paperwork from Carlyle, but we actually do have some numbers to work with. And I'm not just talking about matching assets under management to market caps of already-public buyout firms like Apollo Global Management (APO), Blackstone Group (BX) or Kohlberg, Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR). ????Ten years ago, Carlyle sold a 5.5% ownership position in its management company to the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS), for $175 million. At the time, that worked out to an enterprise value of around $3.18 billion. ????CalPERS updates the carrying value of its Carlyle stake each year in its Annual Investment Report, although it's buried inside of a section titled "Expansion Capital." The most recent edition has data through June 30, 2010 -- yes, these run on a serious lag -- and lists the value of CalPERS' Carlyle position at around $334 million. That's an enterprise value of approximately $6.07 billion, compared to $4.04 billion in June 2009 and nearly $17 billion in June 2008 (an era that Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein called the "Golden Age" of private equity). ????It's unfortunate that we don't have a more current value, so now let's look at those public comps. Blackstone Group stock today opened trading 80.36% higher than it did on July 1, 2010. KKR stock today opened 78.57% higher than it did on July 12, 2010 -- which is the day that its listing transfered from Amsterdam to New York. ????Given that these two increases are nearly identical, I think it's fair to extrapolate that Carlyle Group today would be valued around 79% more than it was at the end of last June. I stipulate that it's hardly a perfect comparison, given that private market valuations and public market comps may differ, and every firm has different portfolios. But it's the best we've got right now, and works out to Carlyle being worth around $10.86 billion. |
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