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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

為什么Android不如蘋果iOS賺錢

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年06月02日

蘋果(Apple)公司內部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數百萬用戶中已經有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經營該公司。
谷歌Android市場擁有72,000款付費應用程序,但僅有2款應用程序的下載量超過了50萬次。

80%的Android付費應用程序的下載量低于100次。來源:Distimo

????上月,總部位于荷蘭烏特勒支(Utrecht)的分析公司Distimo發布了一份報告,其中有些部分頗為吸引眼球。報告指出,谷歌(Google)的Android市場正在快步追上蘋果(Apple)的應用程序商店(App Store)并可能于7月超越后者。

????不過Roughly Drafted網站的丹尼爾?伊蘭?迪爾格在一篇名為《Distimo在捧Android的臭腳》的分析報告中尖銳指出,Distimo的報告并沒有提到應用程序商店為開發者帶來了數十億美元的收入,與之對比,卻很少有人能依靠Android市場發財致富。

????在上周五發布的一份新報告中,Distimo探討了出現上述問題的可能原因。最顯著的原因是,蘋果應用程序商店的付費應用程序數量(據Distimo統計,有211,369個)幾乎是谷歌(71,801個)的3倍,不過在4月份的報告中,Distimo并未關注這一點。

????這一次,Distimo發現,由于種種原因,Android缺乏熱門應用程序。Android市場中最成功的應用程序是谷歌自家的免費應用程序——谷歌地圖(Google Maps),下載量超過5,000萬次,不過其余應用程序的下載量都遠不及它。

????Distimo的其它發現如下:(我引用的原文)

????? 谷歌Android市場中的付費應用程序下載量遠低于免費應用程序。就全球范圍而言,有24.8%的免費應用程序下載量低于100次,而付費應用程序中則有高達79.3%的下載次數不到100次。

????? 3月和4月,蘋果iPhone版應用程序商店僅在美國就有6款付費應用程序的下載量超過50萬次;而迄今為止,Android市場在全球只有2款付費應用程序的下載量超過50萬次(但都低于100萬次!)。

????? 谷歌Android市場有5款游戲在全球的下載量超過25萬次;但僅僅在2個月時間里,蘋果iPhone版應用程序商店單在美國就有10款游戲的下載量超過25萬次。

????? 登上下載排行榜將極大提高應用程序的下載量。在10大免費和10大付費應用程序排行榜中,谷歌Android市場迄今只有26款應用程序上榜,而蘋果iPhone版應用程序商店里則上榜了94款應用程序。

????Roughly Drafted網站的迪爾格是蘋果的擁躉,對目前的情況頗有見地,他表示,Android市場的快速崛起其實是一種假象。Android也許僅僅在數量上獲得了增長,但在質量上并無進步。迪爾格引用了蘋果于去年9月發布的應用程序指南:

????“我們的應用程序商店已擁有超過25萬款應用程序。我們并不需要沒有意義的垃圾應用。如果你的應用程序沒有實用之處,或是不能提供某種形式的持續性娛樂,那么它也許無法被市場接受。”

????迪爾格寫道,谷歌并沒有類似政策,“開發者只要付出一筆費用,就能把垃圾程序發布到Android市場的在線列表中。這就是谷歌的免費應用程序突然馬上將在數量上‘擊敗’蘋果的最重要原因,據Distimo統計,前者的數量為134,342款,后者則為121,845款。不過Distimo僅僅比較了垃圾應用、鈴聲和墻紙這類應用程序。當然,從這個角度而言,谷歌肯定可以勝出。”

????以下兩幅圖片來自Distimo的最新報告。你能在Distimo的網站上獲得完整的報告(需要注冊)。

????譯者:項航

????The Utrecht-based analytics company Distimo generated some catchy headlines last month with a report suggesting that Google's (GOOG) Android Market was rapidly catching up to Apple's (AAPL) App Store and might surpass it by July.

????What that report didn't mention, as Roughly Drafted's Daniel Eran Dilger pointed out in a pungent analysis entitled "Distimo polishes the Android turd," is that the App Store is generating billions for developers, while hardly anybody is getting rich in the Android Market.

????In a new report issued Friday, Distimo looks at why that might be. One obvious factor -- not highlighted in April -- is that there are nearly three times as many paid apps on Apple's App Store (211,369, by Distimo's count) as on Google's (71,801).

????What Distimo discovered this time is that, for a variety of reasons, Android generates far fewer runaway hits. The most successful app in the Android Market, with more than 50 million downloads, is a Google freebie: Google Maps. Nothing else comes close.

????Among the other findings: (I quote)

????? Looking at paid applications in the Google Android Market, downloads are significantly lower than they are for free applications. The percentage of all free applications that have been downloaded less than 100 times is 24.8%, and the percentage of paid applications that have been downloaded less than 100 times worldwide is 79.3%.

????? In March and April together, six paid applications have generated more than 500,000 downloads each in just the United States in the Apple App Store for iPhone. In the Google Android Market however, only two paid applications have exceeded more than 500,000 downloads (but under 1 million) worldwide to date [emphasis ours].

????? There are five games in Google Android Market with over 250,000 downloads worldwide. In the Apple App Store for iPhone ten games generated more than 250,000 downloads in the United States alone in two months. [emphasis ours]

????? Being visible in the top charts is very important for generating more downloads... The top 10 free and top 10 paid applications together have seen only 26 applications in the Google Android Market, while there have been 94 applications in the top 10 free and paid in the Apple App Store for iPhone.

????Roughly Drafted's Dilger, an Apple partisan who clearly has a stick in this fire, suggests that the rapid ascendance of the Android Market is an illusion. Android may be gaining in sheer volume, he says, but not in quality. He quotes the app guidelines Apple issued last September:

????"We have over 250,000 apps in the App Store. We don't need any more Fart apps. If your app doesn't do something useful or provide some form of lasting entertainment, it may not be accepted."

????Google has no such policy, Dilger writes. "All one has to do is pay a fee and shovel junk into its online listings. Suddenly it's obvious why Google is 'beating' Apple in free titles: 134,342 to 121,845 according to Distimo: they're only comparing Fart Apps, ringtones and wallpapers. Of course Google is winning in that regard."

????Below: Two more charts from Distimo's new report. You can read it in its entirety here (registration required).

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