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????一個星期前，一家美國大公司的CEO對我說：“我們正在考慮退出巴西。”這家公司已經在巴西運作了幾年了，正在做著好幾百萬美元的生意。它究竟出了什么問題？原來這家公司攤上了官司，公司收到一連串莫名其妙的法院判決，而且還需支付貴得嚇死人的罰金，一切讓這位CEO懷疑自己是否有能力繼續經營下去。他不明白法院為何會理直氣壯地下達這種判決——就連巴西前總統盧拉都稱巴西的司法制度是個“不可觸摸”的“黑盒子”——如果這個司法體系真的不可救藥，這位CEO就要放棄巴西了。 ????這就是腐敗，一個我們想都不愿想的問題，但現在它正威脅著崛起中的發展中國家，它是阻礙發展中國家成為世界一流經濟體的一大絆腳石。考慮到腐敗的歷史，在這個問題上的任何樂觀情緒都是愚蠢的。盡管美國媒體和華爾街總是在關注一些更易掌控的問題，例如通脹和匯率，不過世界各國的領導人們卻都非常明白腐敗的危害，它是“金磚四國”（BRICs）和其他新興經濟體的最大威脅。今年三月，中國總理溫家寶在全國人大代表會上表示，腐敗是中國的“最大威脅”。最近美國副總統喬?拜登訪問俄羅斯時，也把腐敗列為阻礙改善俄美經濟關系的頭號障礙。并且直截了當地提到了謝爾蓋?馬格涅斯基事件。馬格涅斯基是一名律師，他曾指控警察腐敗，后來他于2009年在獄中離奇身死。 ????腐敗問題并非僅是小額的賄賂和好處費等等，上下打點的做法在全世界都很普遍，當然它也有它的害處。但腐敗在發展中國家已經達到了令人發指的地步。例如在過去幾年里，印度的電信管理部門已經從各種項目中搜刮了300多億美元。一位俄羅斯激進人士在網上曝光的文件明確顯示，在一家國營公司的跨西伯利亞管道工程中存在40億美元的詐騙。在中國，一位負責新型高鐵網絡的部長被控貪污1.52億美元（此部長還包養了18名情婦）。腐敗的深層損害遠遠大于表面影響，它使許多投資人望而卻步，而這些投資又正是經濟發展所急需的。畢馬威會計師事務所（KPMG）的一份報告指出，“印度的高度腐敗和欺詐使該國的信用和經濟發展存在脫軌的危險。” ????腐敗的社會影響更不易察覺，但可以說也更惡劣。它打消了人們的主觀能動性和雄心壯志——如果努力不是成功的源泉，那么何苦還要努力呢？人們對政府的尊重也隨之消失。尤其隨著社會變得更加富裕，普通公民與被官方容忍的為富不仁者之間的差距越來越大，憤怒和不滿情緒也在日益蔓延。當溫家寶總理談到“腐敗是中國的最大威脅”時，他指的并不是腐敗對外國投資者的影響，他擔心的是“社會安定”。他知道，盡管腐敗不是點燃北非和中東革命的唯一原因，但它也是讓革命分子民怨沸騰的一個重要原因。 ????談到腐敗問題，很多人只是無謂地聳聳肩，因為他們認為腐敗是永遠反不完的，是不能根治的。事實并非如此。科爾蓋特大學（Colgate University）的腐敗問題專家邁克爾?約翰斯頓指出，17世紀的英國、19世紀的瑞典都極其腐敗。新加坡和香港幾乎僅僅通過一代人的努力就徹底清除了腐敗。不過約翰斯頓也表示，改革是非常困難的，尤其是在“存在巨大風險”的大型經濟體里。改革“可能退化為由改革者發起的政治報復”。那么改革應該從哪里開始呢？約翰斯頓表示：“看一個社會是否能處理好腐敗問題，最好的指標之一是看財產權的保護力度。這也是發起改革一個的好起點。” ????腐敗的另一個隱蔽的特點是，腐敗幾乎是說不得的。我不能說那位正在考慮離開巴西的CEO是誰，因為如果我這樣做了，他的公司就危險了。而且一般說來，“民告官”本來就是危險的。而且貪污腐敗總是在暗中進行。一個人在路燈下找鑰匙，不是因為他把鑰匙丟在了路燈下面，而是因為那里光線更好。同理，我們往往總是盯著有很多統計數據佐證，并且適用數學分析的經濟問題。但是我們卻忽視了一個重大的危險。如果你認為最近各國政府對腐敗問題的關注能產生很大的效果，那就太天真了。不過如果他們的反腐行動收效甚微的話，那么這些新興經濟體的發展之路可能會變得非常艱險。 ????譯者：樸成奎 |
????"We're thinking of pulling out of Brazil," the CEO of a large American corporation told me a week ago. The company has been operating there for a few years, doing several million dollars of business. The problem? A series of court judgments so inexplicable, and so crushingly expensive, that the CEO doubts his ability to manage the business. He doesn't see how the rulings can be honest -- even former President Luiz Lula da Silva called Brazil's judiciary a "black box" that's "untouchable" -- and if the system doesn't work, this CEO is bailing out. ????This is corruption, a problem we'd rather not think about that now threatens the ascension of developing countries into the top tier of world economies. Given its history, optimism on the subject would be foolish. But while the media and Wall Street focus on more tractable issues like inflation and exchange rates, world leaders seem perfectly clear on the greatest threat to the future of the BRICs and other emerging economies. Corruption is the "biggest threat to China," Premier Wen Jiabao told the National People's Congress in March. When U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visited Russia recently, he cited corruption as the No. 1 impediment to better economic relations and pointedly mentioned Sergei Magnitsky, a lawyer who died in custody in 2009 after accusing the police of corruption. ????The problem is not just the petty palm greasing that's common worldwide, though that has its own corrosive effects. Developing-market corruption has reached staggering dimensions. India's telecom ministry apparently siphoned $30 billion from various projects over the past few years. A Russian activist posted online documents apparently showing a $4 billion fraud in a state-run company's trans-Siberian pipeline project. In China a minister overseeing the new high-speed-rail network is accused of skimming $152 million (and maintaining 18 mistresses). The threat is broader than it may seem: Corruption discourages the investments needed for economic progress. In India "high-level corruption and scams are now threatening to derail the country's credibility and [its] economic boom," says a report from KPMG. ????The societal effects are subtler and arguably worse. Initiative and ambition shrivel: Why try hard when effort isn't the source of success? Respect for authority evaporates. Anger and resentment build, especially as a society becomes richer and the gulf between ordinary citizens and the officially tolerated crooks grows wider. When Premier Wen declared corruption the biggest threat to China, he wasn't talking about its effect on foreign investors; he's worried about "social stability." He knows that while massive corruption isn't the only grievance of the revolutionaries in North Africa and the Middle East, it's a big one. ????Many people shrug at corruption because they figure it's eternal and incurable. Not so. England was deeply corrupt in the 17th century, Sweden in the 19th, notes professor Michael Johnston of Colgate University, a corruption expert. Singapore and Hong Kong virtually eradicated corruption in a generation. Still, reform is extraordinarily hard, he says, especially in big economies where "huge stakes are on the table." Reform "can degenerate into political payback" by the reformers. Where to begin? "One of the best predictors of whether a society will do well on corruption is the strength of property rights," Johnston says. "That's not a bad place to start." ????An insidious feature of corruption is that it's hard to talk about. I can't identify the CEO who's thinking of leaving Brazil because doing so could imperil his company's ability to operate there. More generally, accusing people in power is inherently dangerous. Graft operates in the dark. So, like the man looking for his keys under a lamppost not because he lost them there but because the light is better, we focus on economic issues that are rich with statistics and susceptible to math. But we're missing a giant danger. It's naive to think the recent official attention to corruption will amount to much. If it doesn't, the progress of the emerging economies could turn ugly. |
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